of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Tuesday that he has a new plan to end Russia’s years-long war against his country. Zelenskyy only outlined a broad stroke plan, but Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on Wednesday that he is not interested in a diplomatic solution.
This rejection means that Zelensky’s plan is not actually a realistic framework for ending the war anytime soon. But it is nonetheless a useful document that outlines a scenario for how the war might end – and seems a tacit acknowledgment that Ukraine does not see a way to end the conflict through force.
Zelensky outlined four components of the plan:
- Continuing Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region – troops entered the area in early August and now Hold a territory of more than 500 square miles In an effort to withdraw Russian troops from the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
- Ensuring “security architecture” – a vague element that probably refers to Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO and the European Union.
- Obtaining a “strong package” – possibly referring to weapons – would pressure Russia to enter negotiations. Ukraine requests more weapons from allies (Zelensky will likely seek permission to use weapons on Russian territory, Something that was taboo until recently)
- Advancing an economic component – There is little clarity about this part of the plan, but it probably bears mentioning Sanctions imposed on Russia.
From the focus on weapons, security and Kursk, the main goal of the plan seems to be to force Russia to the negotiating table through continued military action. Zelensky said he plans to present the plan to US President Joe Biden in September, when the Ukrainian president plans to attend the UN General Assembly, as well as to presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
“The success of this plan depends [Biden]” Zelensky said Tuesday, in an apparent acknowledgment Role of the US and NATO Allies Ukraine keeps stockpiling weapons. “What we have in this plan will they give or not? Are we free to use what we have in this plan or not?”
But even Zelensky discussed his plans to end the war — which has devastated and driven large swathes of Ukraine’s southeast. Thousands of Russians in exile – Russia has launched a series of airstrikes targeting targets in southeastern and central Ukraine. At least two people were killed in the attack on a hotel in Zelenskyi’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih and targeted nearly half of Ukraine, including the capital Kiev and the Zaporizhia region. Largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
The path to peace is still very fraught; Zelenskyy’s plan doesn’t change that
There are still many obstacles to peace. Chief among them is that Russia categorically rejects the idea of a diplomatic end to hostilities.
“At the moment the topic of discussion has lost its relevance,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov A line echoed that, said Tuesday Kremlin officials have been under siege since Ukrainian forces seized parts of Kursk.
It’s not clear that Russia can sit down and negotiate, though Jennifer KavanaghThe senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a defense think tank, told Vox that “there may be an opportunity for one of these third parties” — such as India or Turkey, which has ties to both Russia and Ukraine as allies — to “play a larger role” at the end of the war. “.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has so far refused to condemn the Russian attack, reportedly said: Offered aid to Ukraine to end the war. Modi also tells the news told Putin on Tuesday That he supported efforts to find a peaceful, diplomatic solution to the war—soon.
It’s hard to say what a diplomatic end to the war might look like, and Zelensky’s plan doesn’t suggest one. But according to William CourtneyAn assistant senior fellow at RAND and a diplomat who has worked in Russia and Eastern Europe, the end may not be a “total surrender” or a political compromise, but something more like a permanent truce.
The danger of that arrangement, however, is that “the Russians are notorious for violating their international commitments,” Courtney told Vox — meaning there’s no guarantee the ceasefire will hold.
For now, however, any path to peace seems to lie at the end of more fighting. And that means despite the impressive Kursk push and Zelensky’s plan, the prospect of an imminent peaceful solution looks dim.
