Democrats are increasingly nervous about Joe Biden’s chances in 2024 after Thursday’s debate. But what will be the consequences of that panic?
The team is in uncharted territory. Doubts have grown about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump, and speculation is mounting whether he might agree to drop out of the race. Calls for Biden’s resignation have suddenly become widespread in the media, even in Commentator who earlier defended the President. Top Democrats are reporting A similar discussion is taking place Behind the scenes, but the extent and importance of those discussions is still unclear.
First off: Don’t expect anything to happen immediately. No one can force the President of the United States to drop out of the race, and he won’t do it willingly.
At this point, Biden’s aides Telling reporters He has no plans to drop out. If top Democrats, Biden’s own most trusted advisers and members of his family urge him to reconsider, that could change.
But that process will take some time—perhaps weeks, especially with the complicated question of what happens next.
Still, despite a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next, there seem to be three plausible options for where we’re headed.
1) Biden sticks it out
Often, when pundits are hyping a supposedly game-changing political moment, it’s useful to take a step back and ask skeptically: Will anything actually change?
Biden won every state in the Democratic primaries this year, and overwhelming majority Party rules oblige delegates to vote to nominate him at the convention. These delegates are usually party loyalists trusted by the Biden team and state Democratic parties. They would not in any way rebel against him and depose him in a conference against his will.
That doesn’t mean Biden is guaranteed to be on the ticket. But basically, the only way he can leave the race is if he decides to do so himself – perhaps after being urged to do so by his confidants and senior party leaders.
Its new chorus call from New York Times opinion writer Biden’s exit is an ominous development for him. Like former Democratic aides who are now media commentators from Jones And Claire McCaskill, saying similar things. But we have yet to see a similar public defection from serving elected Democrats.
How intense will the pressure be? In part, it depends on the personal preferences of Biden’s family members, his trusted advisers and top Democrats, all of whom must decide whether they want to try and push him away or stand by him.
Their decisions will likely be shaped in part by post-debate polling. In an optimistic scenario for Biden, little has changed and he can simply ignore his critics, grit his teeth and weather the storm. But the worse the polls look, the more panic grows and the more isolated he becomes.
2) Biden leaves the race and endorses a successor
If Biden decides to drop out, one way that could play out is for him to endorse an intended successor at the same time.
The obvious choice would be Vice President Kamala Harris. But the obvious problem with that obvious choice is that many Democrats think Harris has serious political weaknesses of his own. Among them is Biden himself, who Harris is said to have been called A “work in progress” early in his tenure. A Reported earlier this year Claims Harris is still fighting what he calls a “bubble” in Biden’s campaign thinking.
If Biden has clearly made Harris a trusted partner, helped prepare him for his succession over the past several years and sees him as ready for prime time, it will be easier for Harris to swap Biden. But none of this is actually true.
Could Biden endorse someone else? In theory, he is can Pick a Democratic governor somewhat at random — Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer and California’s Gavin Newsom are mentioned most often. He can then call on the team to unite behind that person, cross his fingers and hope it happens.
But besides infuriating Harris and his supporters (passing him over for a handpicked white nominee would be highly controversial), that decision would lack any democratic legitimacy. And if a faction of the party or a wannabe candidate suffers enough, they can make their own game for convention delegates.
By contrast, every Democrat who voted in the primaries knew they would get VP Harris — and potentially President Harris, should Biden not do so in a second term. So if Biden is trying to avoid the possibility of convention chaos by anointing a successor, he is by far the most logical choice.
3) Biden has dropped out of the race and has an open convention
The other option, if Biden chooses to drop out, is that he no Try to pick a successor and simply say the party should figure it out.
And the obvious place for such discussions would be at the Democratic Convention in late August.
In recent decades, the national conventions of the major parties have been crowned, with the winner of the most delegates in the primaries getting the nomination. But in earlier days, conventions were where the nominee was actually decided—usually, in backroom deals between party power brokers who controlled the delegates.
If Biden’s withdrawal causes the convention to be “open” again — freeing delegates to vote their conscience — the process will likely work very differently in the modern media and social media environment. It will be much more public. (Ezra Klein Interview with Ellen Kamarck There are more specifics on how this might play out.)
Ideally, an open convention would be a fair place for all party contenders to make their respective cases, resulting in a fair vote (or multiple rounds of balloting), and ultimately a nominee with majority support at the convention that the party can carry. Integrate back
In theory, it’s more small-D Democratic than Biden trying to pick a successor in advance. That leaves thousands of delegates to decide, not just the top power players who have stood by Biden for so long.
But one problem is that the representatives of the Democratic Party themselves do not have much democratic legitimacy. They weren’t picked to pick the president — they were picked to rubber-stamp Biden’s nomination. And they don’t really represent the people. The only real argument for letting them choose their nominees is that redoing the nationwide primary process is too late and logistically difficult.
The other risk is that an open convention turns into a chaotic mess that divides and confuses the party rather than unifies it, and makes Democrats look terrible to the public on national television.
The conference is less than two months away, so preparation for a truly open process needs to start really soon if it is to happen. So all eyes will be on Joe Biden as he determines which path he will take.
