A wide gender gap is evident the poll after the poll This election—a significant trend that underscores the key role women can play this November
Most recently, in late October Quinnipiac Survey of Michigan 57 percent of the state’s Vice President Kamala Harris was seen by women, while 40 percent of men did the same. By contrast, 56 percent of men supported former President Donald Trump, while 37 percent of women did. This has happened again and again in national elections. For example, a recent Poll from USA Today/Suffolk University found that there was a 16-point gap in support for Harris that he saw from men and women.
“It’s a battle of the sexes, and it’s not a game,” Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy said in a statement. “There is a clear gap between the number of women who support Harris and the number of men who support Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin.” In a Quinnipiac poll conducted throughout October in five of seven key swing states, Harris had a significant lead among women, while Trump saw a comparative advantage among men in the same places. (Quinnipiac did not release October results for Nevada and Arizona.)
Women supporting Democrats over Republicans is not a new phenomenon: group members More likely to support the team Compared to men since 1980, and this The political divide has only grown This time over time, however, this split could have major implications for electoral outcomes for both reasons How tight is the race?and other demographic changes.
According to recent polls, Democrats appear to be losing support among parties that counted in the past, ie black man And Latino male. These losses could be offset by increased voting among women, especially since Women are more likely to vote compared to men, And historically so big number.
“Women’s vote will be decisive in this election” Kathryn Tate, a political scientist at Brown Universitysaid. “If Harris wins, it will be because women elected him.”
The gender gap is a sign of the progress Democrats have made over time
Women have now supported Democrats by significant margins in multiple cycles. In 2020, President Joe Biden won with 55 percent of women voterswhile Trump won 44 percent, and in 2016, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 54 percent of women voters won, while Trump won 39 percent. According to the Pew Research Center. If the actual results come close to the numbers pollsters are seeing, Democrats may well hold those margins.
Part of the Democrats’ growth with women comes from ideological shifts: a high proportion of it Women of all ages are now identifying as liberalsthan two decades ago, according to a Gallup poll released in February. And young women between the ages of 18 and 29, in particular, are among the groups more likely to identify as liberal now than in the past. Gallup predicts 40 percent of young women identify as liberal in 2023, compared to 29 percent in 1999.
Although the left is adding women, it is adding fewer men. Over the same 24-year period, Gallup found that the proportion of men identifying as liberal across all age groups remained relatively unchanged: Only 25 percent of young men identified as liberal in 2023, just 1 percentage point higher than in 1999.
The leftward shift of women has been driven by a combination of factors, including Opposition to misogynistic rhetoric from GOP leaders and allegations of sexual misconduct by prominent political figures — such as Trump, who has been the subject of more than 20 allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct, including one New allegations this week.
Social movements like the #MeToo movement raised awareness about sexual misconduct and harassment in 2017. And in the wake of Trump’s election, women have become more politically engaged, organizing through protests like the Women’s March and running for elected office in record numbers.
Democrats’ stances on social issues, including reproductive rights, and outrage at overturning Supreme Court decisions Roe v. Wade 2022 also resonated with some women. Trump was responsible for appointing the judges who led its reversal Roand have Bragged about his role In doing so, Democrats, meanwhile, have established themselves as the party dedicated to protecting reproductive health care.
Since the 1980s, many women have been increasingly seen Democrats serve their economic interests Also, Roosevelt Institute historian Suzanne Kahn writes for TIME. This idea can be traced back to President Ronald Reagan’s decision to cut social benefits like Social Security and welfare, a cut that disproportionately harmed women, Kahn wrote. And it has since been reinforced by Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton’s efforts to pass legislation to address the gender wage gap and establish family leave.
“Women believe they or their families may need government help or protection,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “Men think it’s a good day when the government doesn’t do anything bad to you.”
And Democrats have been able to take advantage of representational powers because the party has also diversified. The Democratic Party itself has become more representative of women in recent decades, and has made a successful push to recruit and promote female candidates, which Republicans are still catching up to.
In the House, for example, 43 percent of Democratic lawmakers are womenWhile 15 percent of Republican lawmakers are women. The two women at the top of the Democrats’ presidential ticket, including Harris, are largely due to the party’s efforts Democratic voters cheered about
The shift of women to the left has resulted in partisan affiliation with Democrats, and that could have big consequences this election cycle, Lake said.
Currently, a number Swing state elections are equal Between the two presidential candidates — and women’s support may be on the rise Which pushes Harris over the top.
“The formula for winning a close race is to win more women than you lose men,” Lake told Vox.
