Calls for a cease-fire in Gaza are growing louder around the world. In Canada, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly added her voice, saying “the level of human suffering is catastrophic.” The International Court of Justice has called on Israel to immediately end its attack on Rafah, just days after Spain, Norway and Ireland. Recognized An independent Palestinian state.
This happened just days before Israeli airstrikes in Rafah killed dozens of Palestinian refugees. Israel called the strike “accident” But it said the strike also managed to kill two Hamas officials.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Repeatedly said A top goal of its war in Gaza is to eliminate the Hamas leadership, but Israel is no closer to doing so. The top leadership of Hamas remains intact.
Today, explained Reached out to co-host Sean Rameswaram Myrav Jonesin, a senior Israel analyst with the International Crisis Group, to talk about the situation. Listen and follow the full conversation Today, explained on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, pandoraOr wherever you find podcasts.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Sean Rameswaram
Can you tell us why Israel failed to destroy the top leadership of Hamas?
Myrav Jonesin
When you get down to the nitty-gritty of how the Israel Defense Forces define the war’s objectives, they specifically talk about taking away Hamas’ governance and military power. We hear a lot of inflammatory rhetoric — destroy Hamas, destroy Gaza — but when you break it down, they want to remove Hamas as a force in the Gaza Strip. And they basically haven’t been able to do that.
There are two main reasons for this.
One is that it is very difficult to isolate a non-state terrorist group that has taken root in a very small, urban, densely populated area when they have been there for about 20 years. Hamas has taken many hostages; There are still more than 100 hostages in Gaza. It seems the Israeli military has had a difficult time getting to the Hamas leadership and key players as they are likely surrounded by hostages. And as much destruction and devastation and carnage as we saw, I think it probably would have been more if the hostages weren’t there and they didn’t have to worry about that collateral damage.
So this is a major reason. The other is that Netanyahu specifically had a very clear policy of trying to keep Hamas in power and stop Hamas, because Hamas is a very good excuse to continue Israel’s path of settlement, expansion, occupation, and rejection of the Palestinians. status.
As long as Hamas exists, Israel will not have to enter into any kind of peace process, any kind of serious political negotiations. Palestinian demands for statehood, freedom, rights are not to be taken seriously. Even if we assume that Netanyahu is committed to getting rid of Hamas, he has an interest in staying in power now, and the best way to stay in power is to keep fighting.
Sean Rameswaram
Did it all work? Did they get any of the top leadership of Hamas?
Myrav Jonesin
They reached out to senior commanders in charge of certain aspects of Hamas’ military wing, but no one in the inner circle made a decision. And they’re very eager to get to those people, not just because they decide, but because of revenge, they have to take these people out for at least a symbolic victory.
Sean Rameswaram
It sounds like you’re saying that completely eliminating Hamas isn’t really justified. What is it you say?
Myrav Jonesin
Yes, and there are a few reasons for that.
First, the most powerful military in the Middle East has been fighting for almost eight months now. Let’s say half of the casualties – which are over 35,000 – are Hamas militants, still not a number that can really set an organization apart. Perhaps it is enough to no longer allow Hamas to function as a military force or to attack Israeli border communities. It is possible. I think the goal and rhetoric of the war was much more than Israel. They made promises they couldn’t keep.
Sean Rameswaram
How does the US feel about Israel’s strategy with Hamas at this point?
Myrav Jonesin
In some ways, President Biden is talking between the two [sides] The United States has fully supported Israel — diplomatically, politically, economically, militarily — in this war it faces. It allegedly supports Israel’s war goal of returning the hostages and destroying Hamas. But the way Israel has waged its war where some former generals and some people in the Biden administration have said, you can do it differently.
As this war went on, I think the US – and to some extent Israel – was probably surprised that they didn’t get in more. As election year begins in the United States, they are beginning to realize that they really need to at least provide the appearance of making things better on humanitarian issues.
The United States came out and said, You need to have a better plan, you need to figure out who is going to take over. Almost all of the US and Netanyahu’s war cabinet have said, Even where you get Hamas out, you have nothing to fill the void. There is no alternative. You rejected any kind of plan. I think the US is very frustrated with the fact that there is no exit strategy, no end game and no political post-war vision for Gaza.
Sean Rameswaram
How are the Palestinians feeling about Hamas at the moment?
Myrav Jonesin
We know that polls taken in the West Bank are growing in popularity, where Palestinians are not directly involved in what is happening in Gaza. But before October 7, the highest death toll for Palestinians in 20 years was occurring in the West Bank. You have settler militias, complete restrictions on your freedom of movement. They are in a very uncertain and scary place. And the Palestinian Authority, which governs certain aspects of life in certain areas of the West Bank, has become quite involved in the Israeli occupation, so there is no one to represent them.
Thus Hamas represents the only entity that has challenged Israel for its extremely violent and systematic repressive policies. Now, this doesn’t mean that people like all of Hamas’ tactics, but Hamas is the only entity that stands up to Israeli impunity. I think in some ways Israel was hoping that the worse it got for the Gazans, the more they would turn against Hamas. Maybe they were hoping for chaos that would cause such a catastrophe that Hamas would have to accept power.
Sean Rameswaram
But is it certain that Hamas will still be standing at the end of this war?
Myrav Jonesin
It’s hard for me to predict because few people in Israel – even Netanyahu aside – are really committed to removing Hamas from power, even if it takes years, even if Israel has to be in years of rolling operations and some form of occupation.
You have a real security problem and an internal internal crisis, that Israelis have lost complete confidence in the state’s ability to protect them. And this is a real issue that the political and military parties have to deal with. So they are committed to removing Hamas at some point. But there’s also a reality to deal with, and I think some military intelligence officers already realize that Hamas will be there at some level.
The question is, how do you leverage that, or work in a strategic way? Even if the current Hamas regime somehow surrenders or is eventually exiled or removed, the Hamas people, the Hamas approach, and the Hamas ideals will remain.
The Palestinian issue was pushed under the rug, US presidents completely denied it was a problem, Israeli prime ministers and successive governments and Israeli society decided it was not a problem they needed to deal with.
That arrogance and that impunity led us to October 7 in many ways, so it’s something Israelis have to reckon with now. The world has been reacting too strongly to occupation for many years without paying a price, and unfortunately, the price is now very, very high.
