This year’s European Parliament elections saw a shift to the right, but the impact on the bloc’s policies may be less significant than the impact on the domestic politics of individual EU member states.
Case in point: French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap Parliamentary elections in his country Because his team did so badly, and The notorious far-right German party AfD German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats won more seats.
If you’ve been watching European politics closely, the bloc’s rightward shift isn’t surprising. If anything, this weekend’s results highlight how the shift to the right has been ongoing — and in more complex ways — exemplified by a few well-known extreme parties gaining seats in parliament.
Europeans voted for more right-wing politicians in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. But part of the push to the right is also driven Moderate politicians are moving further to the right Act under this premise, especially on migration Immigration is a major concern for voters And that promising austerity policy will help the Center retain power.
Other major issues include the economy, cost of living, defense, and the environment; In addition to immigration, the right was able to capitalize on environmental policies due to widespread protests by European farmers, especially in France and Germany, about the economic impact of the bloc’s climate change policies.
In European Parliament elections, individual country parties fit into one of nine different groups, two of which are definitely associated with the right: Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). With results from all 27 member states now in, the two combined hold 131 of the 720 seats, an increase of 15 over the last election, and other non-aligned parties, including the right-wing Fidesz, will take 100. The centrist Renew Europe (Renewal) group – French President Emmanuel Macron’s party – lost a stunning 23 seats while the more left-wing Greens/European Free Alliance lost 19.
The centrist parties, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which lost four seats, and the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) still gained the largest number of seats; Combined with the reshuffle, the Center still holds a majority of seats. But the rise of far-right groups means they can exert more influence than ever on things like the EU budget and defense policy.
European right rising tide, explained
The rise of the right in Europe is of a piece, of course, with increasingly authoritarian and undemocratic trends around the world. And the right has been building towards this point for the past 15 years: far-right parties have been steadily gaining ground in Europe since the AfD began in 2013 and France’s Marine Le Pen took over the leadership of the National Assembly (formerly the National Front). In 2011, the party’s most damaging and hateful ideologies, particularly those about migration, were made palatable.
For decades after World War II, although right-wing parties existed they were quite marginal and closely associated with fascism and Nazism. In the last decade in particular, though, that time has become more distant and Europe has faced multiple overlapping crises, including the failure of its immigration system and the Covid-19 pandemic, which have created space for these groups to – and over time, normalize themselves within their societies. .
“They’re doing everything to be more acceptable, to get a wider constituency, because that’s the secret to winning,” Patrick Chamorel, who studies populism, political movements and fractures in Western democracies at the Stanford Center in Washington, told Vox.
But it’s also important to remember that elections often reject incumbents, especially when people struggle with daily living costs; inflation increases, Especially in countries like Austria, and the Russian fuel embargo has driven energy consumption. That means these elections weren’t just about embracing the right, but voters who want to shun centrist and left-leaning policies that aren’t working for them.
This weekend’s elections followed that pattern — yes, far-right parties like ID and ECR won more seats than they did in the previous election five years ago. But left and green parties have also lost seats, and centrist parties like the EPP — which still has the most seats of any party — have moved ideologically to the right in some ways like immigration policy to cater to right-leaning voters. .
“The migration crisis, to the extent that there is one, is only one of five or six major crises that have rocked the European Union in the last 15 years,” Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Vox. “The picture is different from country to country. So looking at countries like Poland or Estonia, the biggest driver is the Ukraine war. If you look at Germany, it’s immigration. But in places like France and Denmark, it’s the climate crisis that has wider constituencies. And in many southern European countries, it is still the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009”.
Therefore, it was difficult for any party to campaign on a marquee issue, as many on the right had previously done on Euroscepticism or exiting Europe. And that’s one thing that distinguishes today’s ascendancy from the movement’s early days: it’s not trying to gain power to abolish the European Union.
“Brexit – a lot of British voters regret it, so I think [far-right parties] Don’t want to go through that experience,” Camorel said. “They would rather influence the EU from within. So this is true for most European far-right parties, with the exception of Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party in Hungary.”
The war in Ukraine made it more difficult to imagine breaking away from the union and facing a threat like Russia alone, although this is a more important concern for countries closer to Russia, such as Sweden and Finland, than for Western European countries such as France. and Germany. That means the far right is more likely to use its newfound power to try to reshape EU policy. How much of an impact this will actually have, however, remains an open question.
What will this mean for European policy?
This result does not mean that the right suddenly has control of the European Parliament or that policy is suddenly going to change dramatically. But there may be policy changes over time, especially where it concerns the EU’s climate change policy, immigration and, to a lesser extent, defence.
“The center of gravity is definitely moving to the right but they [don’t] There is a majority; “The majority will be with the mainstream parties, but on different policies, you’re going to see a shift,” Leonard said. “And I think that’s going to be especially on anti-Green issues on immigration and on questions related to national sovereignty,” a new spin on Euroscepticism that, Not in favor of leaving the EU, insists on more autonomy for the regions defenseThe economy, and staying in the Eurozone.
On immigration in particular, the right has already achieved some of its goals, pushing from the center to the right, as exemplified by Parliament’s new immigration policy. Approved in May. This new policy includes a mechanism for speedy disposal of asylum cases Deport unsuccessful asylum seekers to their home countries more quickly, among other related elements. It could be a place where some far-right parties, especially the AfD and the National Assembly, would be able to coalesce ideologically and it could be a place where proper efforts could be made to use its new numbers to bring about more change. Immigration Policy
Another area where the right can leverage its electoral gains is on climate policy. As exemplified by last year’s farmers’ protests, European farmers’ voices believe that implementing key EU policies to combat climate change has come without enough support for individual farmers to convert to more expensive farming methods. These demonstrations saw France, Germany and peasants Belgium A march against not only their own government but Brussels, the EU’s center of power. And that phenomenon, which was both national and cross-border organizing power, was Organized by right-wing parties who can expect Fight against new green policiesif not Roll them back.
Interestingly, because right-wing parties have more nation-specific grievances and policies against the EU rather than unifying aspirations, making them less cohesive in collective spaces such as the European Parliament, That can make it more challenging for them to build coalitions and come together to formulate new policies. Ultimately, the right’s emphasis on individual country policies makes EU elections a harbinger of what may happen within member states in the coming years.
France and Germany are perhaps the most provocative examples of this. A victory for the National Assembly in the election is deeply worrying in the short term, as Macron’s snap-election strategy could push many more right-wing legislators into the National Assembly and set the party up for further gains or even victory in the next election in 2027. – Immigrant Le Pen has been making increasing gains against Macron in the past two elections, and the possibility that the National Assembly could lead France is now closer than ever.
The AfD is now the second-strongest German party in parliament, despite massive protests against them earlier this year, active police investigations against the party and The scandal is rocking the party leadership Just weeks ago.
Even if right-wing parties cannot form strong coalitions in parliament, their rise in the polls suggests there is a problem – but a bloc-wide shift to the right is not the answer.
