A ceasefire agreement has been reached in Gaza.
Long-running talks between Israelis, Palestinians, the Americans, Qataris and Egyptians produced an agreement on Wednesday that, in the coming days, will at least temporarily end the war in Gaza and repatriate some Israeli hostages. The agreement also includes a framework for making short-term ceasefires permanent — parameters that, if respected, will eventually lead to an end to the ceasefire. The bloodiest chapter in the long history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In theory, this is all good. It has long been clear that the Gaza war is both a humanitarian and political disaster: a massacre of Palestinians that has made the prospect of genuine Israeli-Palestinian peace less likely than ever. Gazans will now have the opportunity to begin rebuilding their lives after the unimaginable destruction; The Israelis will be able to welcome back at least some of the hostages who were languishing in Hamas cells.
But such agreements are never guaranteed. There’s real reason to think this deal could turn into something permanent – but there’s also good reason to believe it could fail, allowing the killing to resume.
What we know – and what we don’t – about the terms of the deal
As the full text of the agreement has not yet been released, we cannot be sure of every single detail of the agreement. but Reporting on Terms of contractWhich mostly seems to track the Biden administration’s May cease-fire proposal, has been combined On some key points.
To begin with, the deal is done divided into several stages. The first phase covers a temporary cessation of hostilities, the second a permanent end to the hostilities, and the third a comprehensive agreement for the political and security future of Gaza.
These latter two phases, at present, remain aspirational. Currently the only binding part of the contract is the first phase, which lasts six weeks Starting from Sunday.
During this period both Israel and Hamas will cease hostilities. Israeli troops will withdraw from Gaza’s main population centers, the Philadelphia Corridor on Gaza’s border with Egypt, and the so-called buffer zone in the Gaza Strip bordering Israel. The exact size of this buffer zone is not yet clear.
There will also be an exchange of prisoners. CNN reported Hamas will release 33 of the remaining 100 Israeli hostages who have not yet been released, rescued or confirmed dead. The New York Times reported The freed hostages are likely to be “women, elderly men and the sick”. There is also Report Hamas will confirm which hostages are alive – and which are not.
In return, Israel would release hundreds Palestinian women and children in Israeli detentionPerhaps including some who have been convicted of terrorism and murder. Those prisoners will have some restrictions on where they can go after release; Some reports suggest they will be sent to Gaza and banned from the West Bank others They will be completely banned from the Palestinian territories.
The deal will also include a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. Again, the exact number and nature of that aid — who will provide it, what kinds of needs it will meet — has yet to be clarified.
It is possible that so many details remain unclear because they have not yet been fully figured out. In a statement Wednesday afternoon after the deal broke down, This is what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Several items of the framework are yet to be finalised; We hope to finalize the details tonight.”
Is the war coming to a permanent end?
When you look at the specifics of the agreement, what we’ve got so far looks more like a cease-fire agreement and more like a treaty. pause A more permanent solution may be found during the fight. Negotiators seeking to hammer out an agreement for the second phase – a permanent ceasefire – will operate on a six-week clock. If they don’t get a deal by then or extend the moratorium, the fight is sure to start again.
The odds of these various outcomes—ceasefire, protracted negotiations, or a return to war—are hard to know now. But there are a few factors worth considering.
First is the nature of Netanyahu’s coalition. The prime minister’s government relies on continued support from the far-right Religious Zionism slate, which strongly opposes a permanent end to the war.
Currently, there is no indication that the faction’s leaders – cabinet members Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gavir – will be able to close the first phase of the deal. But they are likely to pose major problems in transforming into a permanent ceasefire. In fact, an Israeli media report said Netanyahu had already promised Smotrich He has no intention of entering into the second phase of the agreement. It is difficult to say whether this is true or not; Netanyahu has a habit of telling people what they want to hear — and a dubious record of following through.
Second is the internal politics of Hamas.
Although the militant group’s army remains active, according to US estimates it has Recruited as quite a lot of fighters As it lost the current war, almost all of its top leadership was killed. The result is that Hamas’s current decision-makers are new and relatively inexperienced in negotiations; It is not clear how they are thinking about their interests or even how much they agree with each other about what those interests are.
The third is the Donald Trump factor.
Multiple reports suggest the president-elect had a personal desire for a deal Positive role in discussionPutting pressure on Netanyahu — who A deal looked like an initial roadblock – To agree to the first phase agreement. However, we don’t know the exact nature of Trump’s interest: whether he wants to make the war permanent, or just a temporary truce that he can brag about once he takes office. Given Israel’s dependence on the United States, the position of the incoming US president is likely to play an important role.
Fourth, and finally, war-weariness among both populations.
Gazans have been so cruel- About 90 percent of entire population Displaced – that they just want an end to the conflict. And polls have shown for months that Israelis support a negotiated end to the war. This dynamic would create political costs for leaders on both sides to resume fighting, which could weigh on Netanyahu. This is especially true with Israeli elections scheduled for next year (and possibly sooner than that).
It’s good, then, that both Israelis and Gazans seem to be getting at least a temporary respite from the horrors of the past year. While there is no guarantee of lasting peace, there is more hope than ever for it.
