Former President Donald Trump has not said much publicly about the Gaza war despite implementing hard-line pro-Israel policies while in office. But what he’s said has put him in line with a GOP base that’s starting to falter Lose interest in warIt even maintains support for Israel.
And recently, he has taken an increasingly hostile stance against the Palestinians and their supporters in the United States.
Earlier this month, he reportedly told donors behind closed doors that he was “radical revolutionwhich has swarmed US college campuses in recent months, saying it would deport protesters who are not US citizens.
“Well, if you elect me, and you really should, if you re-elect me, we’re going to set that movement back 25 or 30 years,” he said. known.
If Trump sees college campuses as another front in the culture war he can play for election, the war in Gaza itself could be a thorny issue.
Trump, K regular His support for Israel is outlined more broadlythere is known He supported Israel in its continuing “war on terror” following the October 7 Hamas attack. and choice Members of the Israeli governmenthe has Cast doubt on the continued viability of the two-state solution The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a cornerstone of US policy for decades.
At times he has also criticized Israeli propaganda. He said Israel should “Get with it … Come back to peace and stop killing people.” But he insisted that they “must have a victory” and that is What really matters is that Israel is “absolutely losing the PR war” and “losing its power” in Congress. He has also criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom relations have cooled since Netanyahu recognized Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.
As such, it is clear that Trump will be tougher on protesters and embrace Israel even more tightly than Biden. But with Biden’s support waning because of his perceived failure to sufficiently criticize Israel, Trump may avoid scrutiny outside the current president’s spotlight.
Trump’s political calculations on Gaza
This is not new from Trump.
Trump was the most pro-Israel US president in his first term. He recognizes Israel’s disputed ownership of the Golan Heights and recognition of Jerusalem as the country’s capital, although control of Jerusalem has been a sticking point in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians for decades.
This has arguably tarnished the US ability to act as a credible broker in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, who have increasingly sought diplomatic solutions outside the peace process. Still, Trump continues to tout those moves as proof of his pro-Israel bona fides.
Although he has not elaborated on his plans for a second term, there is reason to believe that he is Advanced similar principles, his son-in-law and former Middle East adviser, Jared Kushner, recently suggested that the current borders of Gaza could be changed against current US policy. “Gaza’s waterfront property can be very valuable,” he said said In February
That said, it’s notable that Trump didn’t choose to highlight the war as a top campaign issue. And that’s probably because he understands where the voters are. The fact remains that the Gaza war is not one Deterministic selection problems For the vast majority of voters, even Republicans are on board with: a the majority Now advocates a permanent ceasefire and a reduction in violence, even as they still hold Favorable views of Israel.
It’s probably in Trump’s interest not to say more because the problem is already there Disintegrating the democratic base Without any help from his campaign. This has been irritating for the campaign of Biden, who can point to Trump as staunchly anti-Palestinian and still lose support from the pro-Palestinian left.
But it seems that Trump by doing See the US political discourse around the war – rather than the war itself – as a winning issue. Trump has loudly condemned the anti-war protests, catering to his base where they belong: the majority of Republican voters. approval Efforts by universities to suppress protests, and Less than half At the height of the protests there was a favorable view of higher education institutions.
Fits a broad GOP narrative about it The liberal excesses of the universities are felt And the reluctance of Democrats Imposing law and order — despite the excessive use of force on some college campuses in response to initially peaceful student protests.
“A lot of suburban voters weren’t fans of the chaos that occurred at many of these protests,” said Matt Terrill, a GOP strategist and former chief of staff to Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. “They depend on who they trust to maintain security.”
If Biden takes a hard line on Gaza, Trump could be reseated
Biden’s base is still largely pro-Israel, but he has support A decline in young voters — A core population has to conquer him, and that has one A more positive view of Palestine than older voters. Juggling their interests has proven challenging.
The president said he was listening to the demands of protesters on college campuses. But sometimes aside critical wordsHe has stood by Israel as its leaders face possible arrest warrants for war crimes and continue to ship weapons that Israel has used for atrocities, including recent strike Rafah camp. On Friday, he floated a new cease-fire proposal that he said Israel supported, declaring “It is time for this war to end“
Majority of Democratic voters Approval of Biden’s overall approach, but it may turn off an enthusiastic few who are appalled by US involvement in the war. In battleground states like Michigan, won and lost by slim margins, and where Arab-Americans have a large presence, it can make a difference. Stop national elections. According to May polling from the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, only 7 percent are Arab-American Currently planning to vote for Biden.
But given what Trump has been saying about the Palestinians, where does that sway voters toward Biden?
They may decide to vote for Trump anyway because they believe it will be easier to mobilize Democratic opposition to the war if a Republican is in the White House, said Abed Ayoub, national executive director of the American-Arab Anti-Apartheid Committee.
“Donald Trump has given Democrats a backbone,” he said. “Donald Trump Forces Democrats to Stand Right.”
Or maybe they’ll choose neither and vote third-party.
“These voters are not going to vote in isolation,” said Laila Elabed, a Michigan-based progressive Palestinian American community organizer and younger sister of Rep. Rashida Talib, “but for those who are deeply immersed in this anti-war peace movement, it’s going to be difficult to continue what is now the lesser of two evils.” There seems to be a selective tradition of choosing.”
Voters are having these kinds of discussions despite Trump not having a clear vision for Gaza in his second term. In that sense, he has no real incentive to draw sharp contrasts with Biden — the issue has already left the president behind.
