Good morning, and welcome to election week! Americans are deciding whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be the next US president with hundreds of millions of people already casting their ballots, with millions more set to vote tomorrow.
Between the presidential election, the congressional races and the ballot system, there’s a lot at stake in this election, from the economy from Women’s health care from civil rights from The future for immigrants and their families. If you’re feeling particularly uneasy during the week, be sure to check out our story on unique fears Political anxiety and how you can deal with it.
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But first, we’re setting the stage with a preview of the themes, races and storylines that our politics and policy team will be watching closely throughout the week.
Andrew ProkopSenior Political Correspondent
I watch with increasing alarm as Trump and those around him are convinced that he will win – and that if he loses, it will mean the election was rigged. What I wonder is how organized Harris’ supporters will be in the event of a narrow victory, how far they will go. like me Wrote last weekThere are some procedural and legal reasons to expect Trump’s electoral challenge to be less successful in 2024 than in 2020, but there is a real risk that is less important than coercion and partisanship.
Patrick ReissSenior Politics and Ideas Editor
I’m interested to see how the vote breaks down among young people, especially young people who are voting in their first election. Although Kamala Harris is thanking young voters overall A huge advantage among young womenThe New York Times/Siena College poll showed Donald Trump winning overall among young people (58 percent to 37 percent). Trump and JD Vance have a reason Both went on Joe Rogan’s podcast — which is hugely popular, especially among young people — and why Tim Walz appeared on the World of Warcraft Twitch stream. The campaign is trying to find out where these voters are.
Rachel CohenPolicy Correspondent
Ten states have abortion measures on their ballots, making it one of the biggest opportunities for voters to make their voices heard on the issue since the rollback. Roe v. Wade. Some would repeal sweeping state abortion bans, while others would strengthen protections against future restrictions on reproductive rights.
Among the most anticipated contests is Florida, where abortion takes placealmost completely forbidden.Lawyers in Florida have collected more than $100 millionBut the measure, known as Amendment 4, needs 60 percent voter approval, a high threshold to meet, to restore access to fetal viability — about 22 to 24 weeks.
Jacques BeauchampSenior correspondent and writer for Vox The right newsletter
there is I’m looking for two X factors to determine if Harris will surpass his polls. The first is North Carolina, a state where Trump favors but Republicans have nominated surefire losers For Governor: Self-described “black nazi“Mark Robinson. Will Harris have a “reverse coattails” effect, where voters stop and vote for Robinson, or will there be more people who split their ticket at the governor and state level?”
The second is Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania. In terms of “A floating island of garbage” comments, the Puerto Rican community seems to have come together to a degree I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this late in a presidential term. With about 473,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania alone, ending up with significant anti-Trump voters in this group could be critical.
Christian PazSenior Political Correspondent
It’s not impossible for me to imagine a scenario where we see a strong rightward shift of Latino voters in places like California, Illinois, Texas, Florida, and New York, but in battleground states where they’d typically see little change. More of a democratic bent. I’m very interested to see how Latino voters turn out in this election and see if we can A more ideological choice (Latino moderates and conservatives are shifting to Republicans) and where they prove decisive.
Given how young this voting group is, I’m also curious to see if turnout will increase — if we see nonvoters turning out at higher rates, as the Trump campaign has been doing.
Abdullah FayadPolicy correspondent and writer for Vox within our means Newsletter
Arab Americans make up Thousands of voters In key swing states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they have tended to vote Democrat in recent cycles. I want to see how Israel’s war in Gaza might affect voters. A the couple of vote Show that Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Kamala Harris. While many of these voters fear the prospect of another Trump presidency, there is also a sense that Democrats will face electoral consequences for what the Biden administration has done to Gaza. One pollster told me that the “punishment for Democrats” vote may be smaller than we expected. But still, he says, “these are a lot of votes that Democrats will leave on the table.”
Ian MilheiserSenior Correspondent
The biggest thing that keeps me up at night is the Republican majority on the Supreme Court, the same majority that recently ruled that Donald Trump He allowed crimes to be committed while in officeHarris will try to flip the election if he becomes the legitimate winner. Realistically, this is the result Only possible if the election is extraordinarily close. The Supreme Court chose the winner in the 2000 election, which came down to a nail-biter in Florida. That left him in 2020, an election in which Biden won by a margin large enough that the court would have to flip three states to deny him the victory.
Nicole NariaSenior Reporter, Politics and Society
Trump’s closing argument is a redux of his 2016 campaign on steroids: Intimidation about criminal immigrantsthreat Mass deportationAnd racist attacks like lies about him Haitians eat pets and his claim that immigrants “Blood poisoning“of the country. By engaging in such extreme rhetoric, he has managed to pull Harris and the Democrats as a whole, Further to the right on immigration issues.
Despite its depiction of migration not based in reality. There are border crossings2024 comes down significantly. Still, Republicans could read the election results as a reflection or rebuke of Trump’s approach.
Angela Chen, Senior Editor, Policy & Concepts
I’m tracking a lot of important races, but I’m always interested in what’s happening in my home state of California, especially when it comes to housing. This year, Mane is watching Proposition 33which would extend rent control, and Prop 5That would lower the threshold for votes to make it easier for local governments to build affordable housing Then there is the purely symbolic Prop 3. It would repeal Prop. 8, the infamous anti-same-sex marriage bill that I passed when I passed it only Too young to vote against it.
