Democrats have been so passionate about Kamala Harris’ campaign of late, you might have guessed she has a solid polling advantage over Donald Trump.
This is not the case. Harris currently has a nearly 3-point lead in the national polls percentage point on averageBut the Electoral College actually determines the outcome. That means Harris and Trump need to take as many swing states as possible to win the presidency. And as of midday Tuesday, state polling averages from publication Silver Bulletin, Real clear politics, Five thirty eightAnd The New York Times Cue hair-raisingly tight competition in the most important swing state.
Wisconsin and Michigan currently look the best for Harris: The four polling averages mentioned above agree that he has a narrow lead there, by about 1 to 3 percentage points. But those states won’t be enough to give Harris an Electoral College majority.
Playing conditions are in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, where averages vary. While some of these state averages show Harris leading by very small margins (about 1 percentage point or less) in each of them, others show a tied race ( Pennsylvania And Nevada) or very narrow trump leads (in Arizona And Georgia)
Trump in the remaining swing state of North Carolina The polling average leads By a very small margin of less than 1 percentage point.
The only reasonable takeaway from polling like this is that the contest looks very close and no candidate has a clear advantage.
The Electoral College is trivial
Margins are extremely tight in all these swing states. Still, as a scenario of how election night might end, let’s assume that, as the average is currently suggesting, Harris wins Wisconsin and Michigan and other lean-blue states; Trump won North Carolina and lean red states; And Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are too close to call.
That would put Harris at 251 electoral votes – 19 away from the 270 he needs to win. And he will have two paths to cross the threshold.
One way would be to win Pennsylvania. Its 19 Electoral College votes would be just enough. (So this is the most important swing state.)
Path two would be Georgia plus either Arizona or Nevada wins. Just winning the combo of Arizona and Nevada wouldn’t be enough, as it would give Harris 17 electoral votes. Georgia will need him too.
That’s why it’s important that all of these states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — look so close. Small changes in them can determine good results. No other candidate seems to be leading them comfortably enough so far.
Is Harris’ lack of a big conference bounce understandable or ominous?
Polling averages tell you what polling currently shows, but election forecasting is, in theory, supposed to do something more: predict through modeling how the race might change between now and Election Day.
That has proven contentious in an election year that has moved into uncharted territory with Democrats’ late-Biden-for-Harris swaps in the past few months.
FiveThirtyEight — under new management since founder Nat Silver left last year — came under a lot Criticism Earlier this summer, the first was due to his forecasting model’s optimistic assumptions about Biden’s chances despite his poor polling, and the second because the model Stayed offline For a month after Biden’s resignation.
G. Elliott Morris, who now runs FiveThirtyEight for ABC News, restated the model last week, admit He had to make some significant changes to it. The old version of the model gave Biden a significant advantage over the incumbent president and appeared to give more weight than the new polls showing Biden struggling. Critics questioned whether it really made sense to assume that an unpopular, aging president would have an “official advantage” late in the race.
Silver is now publishing its own independent forecast Silver BulletinAnd for most of August, the model aligned with polls, showing Harris as a slight favorite.
But the Silver Bulletin, which began last Thursday, showed Trump making some progress. As of Tuesday afternoon, it is Trump gave The probability of winning the election is 56.7 percent. Despite the Silver Bulletin polling average showing Harris with a narrow edge in most swing states.
Again, a forecasting model isn’t just a crude polling average, it’s trying to predict how the race might change between now and the election. As Silver explains A recent postThe model is dangling Harris in part because presidential nominees typically get bounces in the polls after their conventions and lose some of that advantage afterward.
Harris hasn’t had much of a bounce since the Democratic convention and is barely leading now, so if we assume he loses some ground later, that means Trump has the edge.
But again, is that a safe assumption? Harris optimists may make the case that he’s already had his “convention bounce” and public attention since Biden dropped out and emerged as Biden’s replacement, so we shouldn’t expect him to improve after the vote. . conference
Harris pessimists might turn this argument around, saying that yes, his campaign was in a “honeymoon” phase when he entered the race, but the honeymoon is bound to end and he’s sure to experience a more contentious period in the race going forward.
In any event, the next big moment that could reshape the election — and the polls — is coming soon: The Trump-Harris debate on Sept. 10, just a week away. And no one has a crystal ball for how that will happen.
