Vibes about who will win the 2024 presidential election may be transferred — but with just over two weeks until Election Day, the polls are as uncertain as ever.
Polling average display A contest in which Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are nearly tied in most key swing states. And while Trump’s polls have improved slightly in the past few weeks, it hasn’t been enough to give him a clear edge. At least not yet.
On average, Trump holds a small edge in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, usually between 1 and 2 points. To win the presidency, however, he would have to breach the “blue wall” by winning either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. As of midday Monday, those states were still roughly tied on average.
There hasn’t been a ton of high-quality swing-state polling in recent weeks, and the best-regarded pollsters will likely release new numbers near the end of the campaign. Once they do, we can get a better idea of where the nation stands.
If polling averages continue to show a very close race after the final infusion of high-quality votes, that will add to the uncertainty about what will happen. Polling error – where a candidate or party is systematically underestimated – is common on the order of a few points.
Polls may underestimate Trump again, as they did in swing states in 2016 and 2020. Alternatively, pollsters have corrected — or even overcorrected — for their prior biases, risking an error that underestimates Harris. We won’t know until the votes are counted.
What the survey shows is in swing states
To recap: There are seven swing states that will most likely determine the outcome of the election (whereas every other state is expected to go strongly for Trump or Harris). Listed in order of electoral votes, they are:
- Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
- North Carolina and Georgia (16 electoral votes each)
- Michigan (15 electoral votes)
- Arizona (11 electoral votes)
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
- Nevada (6 electoral votes)
if Harris could take 44 electoral votes In these swing states, he will win the presidency. Trump would need 51 electoral votes from these same states to win. Survey Says These Swing States Are – Brace Yourself – Very Close!
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina are all tied almost exactly. New York Times polling averageThat shows Trump by 1 in Georgia and 2 in Arizona Net Silver’s voting avg have similar results.
There is a slightly more rosy story for Harris The Washington Post averageThat puts him up by 2 in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. On the other hand, RealClearPolitics average All swing states show Trump leading by 2 points or less.
But this difference is hair-splitting. Neither of these results is enough to inspire real confidence about which way the outcome will go.
Vibes aren’t overpriced either
The vibes, on the other hand, point more clearly in one direction: Among Democrats, there are has been growth panic About Harris’ chances, while Republicans are pretty confident about Trump.
But the pre-election vibes told you that the GOP was headed for a landslide victory in 2022, that Biden was going to win overwhelmingly (not very narrowly) in 2020, and that Trump was unlikely to win in 2016. Invincible hunches and guesses just aren’t worth much.
Some non-polling metrics refer to purported sources of results, such as primary vote numbers or forecast markets. But the number of primary votes is a Notoriously bad indicator What will happen on election day? Prediction markets generally reflect conventional wisdom — and this year in particular, they do May be diagonal By some big-bet Trump fans.
Once we know the results, hindsight will be 20/20. We can all look back for clues that were supposedly hidden in plain sight, as we tell ourselves stories about how the outcome got lucky all around. For now, though, the race is too close to call.
