The US has claimed progress has been made on a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas – and the Israeli side has already agreed to a framework the US called a “bridging proposal” that would end nearly 11 months of brutal fighting in Gaza.
The announcement is reminiscent of one President Joe Biden made in June; Then, he appears to have made a non-committal cease-fire proposal to Israel. The proposal ultimately went nowhere, and Israel pushed back on Biden’s description of the plan.
This time, Israel has not yet publicly accepted the “bridge proposal”. The report indicates Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is against concessions that would allow for a successful deal. President Joe Biden It is said that he spoke with Netanyahu on WednesdayCalled on him to back down from claims regarding Israeli control of parts of Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas demands A “Reverse” Agreement Previous agreements and claims that the US is imposing new Israeli demands on the agreement.
Several rounds of ceasefire talks have already taken place; The last successful attempt to end the violence – albeit temporarily – was in November 2023, when a one-week lull in fighting allowed the return of 105 Israeli hostages and the release of some 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
The November agreement was limited to a prisoner exchange and access to humanitarian aid to Gaza. Now, the goal is to end the fighting that has killed at least 40,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry. The extent of the devastation, with many bodies buried under the rubble, means that the actual death toll is probably much higher – probably thousands of.
The main sticking point in talks between now and earlier this summer appears to be a fundamental disagreement over what a ceasefire might look like. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while Netanyahu says the war could end It will come only when Hamas is destroyed — despite growing consensus that such a goal is unlikely. Moreover, Israel has indicated that it intends to do one Security presence in post-war GazaSome Hamas would not agree.
It has become more urgent as Israelis reach a true cease-fire agreement West Bank settlers continue to attack PalestiniansAnd as the risk of a regional war that could come around Lebanon And Iran Looks increasingly serious. But despite the renewed focus on negotiations, there are reasons to suspect this time will be different.
Why the chances of a ceasefire remain slim
News of the latest truce is just the latest in a long string of almost-but-not-quite proposals since the end of a weeklong truce in November (both sides claim the other broke that deal).
More recently, A A cease-fire proposal issued by the United States on Friday Israel is said to have included claims to control two areas in Gaza. One of these is what Israel calls the Philadelphia Corridor, which runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza. Israel claims to occupy the area To prevent Hamas from using the territory to resupply its war materials.
What Israel wants to control is what is known as the Nezerim Corridor, which divides northern and southern Gaza. Israel has similarly said it needs security forces in the area Stop the flow of weapons. For Hamas, however, additional Israeli control over Palestinian territory could be a nonstarter, reminiscent of Israeli efforts to divide the Palestinian people geographically.
Friday’s agreement also did not provide for a permanent ceasefire, another primary demand of Hamas.
The last major truce was initially planned Discuss back in May. Hamas agreed to the proposal, and the United Nations backed it, but the deal fell apart when Netanyahu introduced new conditions, including control of the Philadelphia Corridor and demands for Palestinians to return to their homes in the north of Israel. According to the BBC.
Part of what makes a cease-fire agreement difficult is that Israel has the military edge: the balance of power in Gaza has always been asymmetric. The Israeli military is strong in its own right; Aid from the United States, including distribution 500 pound bombThe benefits are compounded. And despite the cease-fire talks, Israel continues to attack Gaza, reportedly killing At least 12 people were killed in an attack on a school in Gaza City on Tuesday.
But Hamas has a level “they’ve never had before” in previous conflicts in Gaza. Joost HiltermannThe director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program said: The group still held 105 Israeli hostages as of October 2023.
Holding hostages in Gaza has done little to satisfy Hamas’ demands; A week-long cease-fire and the return of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners is far from a permanent and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
It is also unclear how many of those hostages are still alive; Israel recovered the bodies of six hostages from Khan Yunis on Monday in gaza And Hamas has continued its attacks amid cease-fire talks, one of which An apparent suicide attack in Tel Aviv on SundayFor which the group claimed credit.
A more complicated discussion is the change in leadership of Hamas.
After the assassination of its political leader and chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, probably Israel, Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas’ militant wing, has assumed the top job. Sinwar, Hilterman told Vox, is a “very stubborn man.”
“He doesn’t give up. I think he’d rather be a martyr than admit to their term — killed —,” Hilterman said. “So that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want a ceasefire, but he wants a ceasefire on terms that he thinks are good for Palestine. If he doesn’t get them, he will say to Israel, ‘Keep fighting’.
The U.S. Role in Ending the War – and Why Talks Keep Declining
As the latest ceasefire news shows, the US also remains a major player in the talks.
The level of US military aid to Israel could provide a leverage point to push Netanyahu and Israel toward an agreement; At least publicly, however, Blinken and Biden have shown little appetite for using that leverage, even while pushing for a ceasefire and telling Israel that their war is unwinnable. Vox reached out to the White House and State Department for further clarification on the status of the bridging talks, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
In other words, there is no clear reason to assume that a breakthrough is really imminent. “The public indication that principals are giving is that we’re not close,” said John AltermanDirector of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And that’s either a) an underlying reality or b) reflects that each side is effectively negotiating to try to get the most out of its opponent — but I can’t tell you which of those is true.”
