Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region shocked the Ukrainians, their allies, and above all, Russia.
Ukrainian units have carried out overnight raids on Russian territory, including one in the Kursk region – near Russia’s western border – earlier this year. But they were swift retreats followed by rapid penetration. This time it’s different: Ukraine has taken over About 400 square miles By now, hundreds of Russian soldiers as well.
The Ukrainian operation began more than a week ago, on August 6. US officials said several thousand — and armored vehicles crossed the border from northeastern Ukraine. However, it is not clear how much fighting took place Reporting offers Ukrainian forces At least some Russian defenses were encountered.
Ukraine has yet to say what its military objectives are, and it is likely more than one. Other than President Volodymyr Zelensky, no official has spoken publicly about these intentions; D The President said that “Russia has brought war to others, and now it’s coming home.” Still, the sustained offensive proved a morale booster for Ukrainians in need of one after two and a half years of grinding war.
Russia’s response to the Kursk campaign was extremely slow. Part of this may be because its military apparatus is highly hierarchical — which can delay quick action as decisions work their way up the chain — and because it has undergone major destabilizing changes of late. Crucially, its forces are also tied up in eastern Ukraine, where they have been making gains in recent months.
Russia’s rhetorical response has also been muted. President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s military apparatus are referring to efforts to dismiss Ukraine’s advance as a counter-terrorism operation rather than a full-fledged military operation. Part of Russia’s overall strategy has been to simultaneously portray its war in Ukraine as existential and not as serious; It referred to its attack as “a special military operation”, which sounded less like an all-out war to the Russians, and assured them that it would not affect their lives.
Ukraine’s strategy in the Kursk region makes it difficult to maintain for so long About 200,000 Russians The invasion has forced them from their homes — and the Russian government is just offering to pay about $115 in compensation.
What is the benefit of Ukraine?
Ukraine’s continued incursion into Russia is politically expedient, especially in terms of gaining attention and potential support from the United States and other allies. Two and a half years into the war, global attention has shifted from the front lines in Ukraine to Israel’s war in Gaza and now the upcoming US election.
Support for Ukraine has also declined within the United States. Republicans in Congress Tried to reduce or eliminate critical US military assistance, and overall US support may be at risk If Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump manages to recapture the White House in November.
This successful and sustained penetration into Russia indicates that Ukraine is still a highly disciplined fighting force capable of successfully executing battlefield objectives with realistically sophisticated tactics. Reminding outside powers that Ukraine can succeed militarily, and still win, can help provide support that is critical to maintaining ammunition, combat vehicles, warplanes and spare parts and other gear.
Attacks are also practically useful. Russia will have to withdraw some troops from the Ukrainian front line to counter the Ukrainian invasion. However, its options for doing so are limited; It is trying to avoid redeploying troops away from the war in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which Russia falsely claims is its own territory.
Accordingly, the movement of troops has already started Riley BaileyA Russian analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, Not on the scale that Russia really needs, though To repel attacks and reclaim territory.
“We have seen reports of up to 11 Russian battalions being redeployed from other sectors of the front to form such hastily-assembled force groupings in Kursk Oblast,” Bailey told Vox. That part of the border was poorly defended by Russia, which likely influenced Ukraine’s decision-making.
It is impossible to predict what effect the invasion of Ukraine will have on the end of the war. But it will have an immediate, widespread impact, particularly for Russia, Bailey said. “They have to make a lot of theater-wide decisions that they otherwise weren’t going to make before.”
And ultimately, the invasion could give Ukraine more leverage down the road, in the form of prisoner swaps and possible negotiations to end the war — if, of course, they manage to hold on to the territory.
Things are still difficult for Ukraine, and this operation will necessarily “turn the tide”.
Ukraine has been extremely tight-lipped about the entire operation so far, which speaks to a high level of operational sophistication. But there is a serious question as to how long Ukraine can maintain this operational tempo and whether they can hold on to the region – which They plan to, According to Katarzyna ZiskProfessor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.
Ukraine has already committed troops to this incursion who could also be useful on other front lines; In an effort to force Russian assets from the east, It deviates on its own from an important front.
Ukraine is already struggling with troop numbers, and there is a limit to the number of people it can muster.
Back in July, A Reuters report saidMorale was flagging; Zelensky lowered the draft age from 27 to 25, and the front-runners are exhausted after two years of endless battle.
And even if this battlefield success turns into a successful recruiting campaign, that doesn’t mean Ukraine will suddenly have thousands of highly qualified and effective soldiers.
“While you can get someone to drive a truck or clean a toilet, you can’t get an effective war fighter that easily,” Matthew Bulegu, a defense analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Reuters.
Ukraine remains outnumbered and outgunned; Russia receives drones, ballistic missiles and munitions from partners such as Iran, China and North Korea, and is still working to improve its weaponry domestically, albeit with some challenges. restrictions on its economy.
And the Kursk offensive doesn’t change the fact that Russia is still destroying Kharkiv and making advances in Crimea, even though the Kursk offensive seems to have been targeted in part. Weakening Russia’s air capabilities and would potentially further consolidate forces away from Crimea.
So far, Ukraine’s sneak attack has undermined the perception that Russia — and Putin — is in control of the war. But it still hasn’t eased pressure on the eastern front line or stopped Russian attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities. Sustaining this level of intensity will be increasingly difficult for Ukraine as more Russian reinforcements arrive – and this is precisely what Ukraine needs to have real leverage over Russia in future regional exchanges or peace negotiations.
