On New Year’s Eve, America’s most prominent nativist declared that the nation needs more immigrants.
President-elect Donald Trump said, “We need skilled people, we need smart people coming into our country told reporters Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, “we need a lot of people to come.”
It may seem that Trump has just been visited by the ghosts of Christmas past, present and future. But it was actually highly online white nationalists who triggered the president-elect’s rhetorical shift on immigration.
December 22 Trump In the name of venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as Senior Advisor on Artificial Intelligence. Racist provocateur – and Trump insider – Laura Loomer Condemnation Krishnan’s election comes as the Indian-American investor recently called for increased skilled immigration. According to Lumar, Krishnan wants more “foreign students” to “come to the United States and take jobs that should be offered to American stem students.”
This sparked one Bitter intra-MAGA debates High-skilled immigration in general, and the H-1B visa — which grants temporary legal status to highly educated immigrant workers employed by American companies — in particular. Technology rights, led Elon MuskInsisting that it was in America’s national interest to ensure Silicon Valley’s access to top global talent, to Loomer’s chagrin, Steve Bannonand other ultranationalist Trump supporters.
Both parties in this debate gravitated toward the ugliest possible arguments for their respective positions. One can create Reasonable criticism of the H-1B visa system, which likely reduces Wages and employment opportunities For native-born technology professionals. But Lumar likes to argue The program that enables “third world invaders from India” to steal the American dream from “white Europeans”.
Prominent “populist” Vivek Ramaswamy, meanwhile, has defended high-skilled immigration on the grounds that US tech firms need access to foreign labor because the working class Americans are culturally weak.
As this is what most of their countrymen portray, said talentless And lazy, musk and company voiced some admirable feelings. Tesla CEO posted on x that “anyone – of any race, religion or nationality – who has come to America and worked hell to contribute to this country will forever have my respect” and Reiterate His belief is that “we should greatly increase legal immigration to anyone who works hard, is honest, and loves America.” Musk also indicated that opponents of such immigration effectively “want America to lose for their own personal gain.” Trump went on to signal sympathy with Musk’s vision, both The truth is social and press comments.
Trump and Musk are right to suggest that increasing legal immigration is in America’s national interest. But their concept of meaningful migration is very narrow.
Both argue that America especially needs highly skilled and highly talented immigrants when demonizing Low-educated and low-income immigrants, including some who Came to the United States legally. Yet an immigration policy that truly puts “America first” will allow more of these “low-skilled” workers into the country.
For one thing, it’s not always easy to identify the most technologically and entrepreneurially gifted immigrants before they arrive in the United States: Throughout U.S. history, immigrant families High rate of upward mobility Compared to the native-born, for example, children of low-income immigrants often rise to higher-skilled positions. Actually, some The country’s technology titansJan Koum, the founder of WhatsApp, came from such humble origins.
More importantly, though, the United States is a rapidly aging country that must welcome ever-increasing numbers of immigrants to avoid population decline and the myriad economic problems that accompany it. If America needs more prime-age workers to design its software or train its AI, it needs them to care for its elderly, build its homes, pick its crops, and perform countless other but essential tasks.
If Trump wants to increase the long-term prosperity of existing American citizens, he will open his “big beautiful doors” to workers with a variety of skills.
Gray America needs more people
America is getting old. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of Americans age 65 and older An increase of about 40 percent. As a result, seniors comprised a record-high 17.3 percent of the US population in 2022.
This presents America with major, long-term challenges. The elderly population is one that requires more medical services. And it will be harder for the economy to adequately provide such health care if the ratio of retirees to working-age Americans continues to rise: That means the United States will have to provide more health care with a smaller labor force.
Likewise, if the share of Americans collecting Social Security benefits increases — while the share of paying into the program declines — it will become more difficult. Funding of old age pension For the seniors of the country.
Meanwhile, if current population trends continue unabated, overall Population will decrease By the end of the century, deaths outnumbered births. And population decline is associated with lower economic growth Productivity.
America is far from alone in facing this demographic challenge. Although many countries have tried to increase their populations through various pro-natalist policies — including the provision of generous social welfare benefits for parents — none have had much effect. The only principle is that Reliable and substantial Expanding immigration slows population decline. In no small measure, US middle-class prosperity therefore depends on its ability to bring in more prime-age workers.
Census Bureau 2023 estimate This reality is simplified. The agency examines what will happen to the U.S. population over the next few decades under various immigration policy scenarios. It found that if the United States stopped all immigration, the US population would be 32.2 percent smaller in 2100 than in 2022. In a “high immigration” scenario, by contrast, the population would be 30.6 percent higher.
The Bureau of Immigration’s modeling also greatly improved the structure of America’s population. Absent immigration, more than 35 percent of Americans will be over age 65 by 2100; In high-immigration situations, this figure is only 27.4 percent.
Even in the near term, immigration levels will have a profound effect on the country’s demographic health. Without immigration, America’s prime-age labor force would shrink by 5 percent between 2022 and 2035. With higher levels of immigration, that labor force would grow by 5 percent over the same period.
That means America needs more workers in the early years of life. It is unlikely that the United States can fully satisfy its economy’s hunger for young workers with talented foreign engineers alone.
And in any case, the U.S. especially needs many more workers with less rare skill sets. America is suffering Labor shortage in health care professions Those requiring only a high school diploma, such as home health care aides and pharmacy technicians. By 2040, the country is on track to have 355,000 fewer direct care workers than the economy needs, according to an analysis by the Niskanen Center. Immigrants are far more likely than other Americans to be willing to do the difficult and uncomfortable tasks required for home care: Although foreign-born Americans make up about 14 percent of the overall population, they include 27.7 percent According to the American Immigration Council, health assistants are in the labor force.
Migrants are equally essential to mitigation Labor shortage in constructionamong others important industries.
To be sure, a very large influx of foreign-born workers is likely to reduce the bargaining power of native-born workers in some sectors, at least temporarily. But overall, Study there is consistently Immigrants have not declined wages or job opportunities In the short term even for native workers. In the long run, meanwhile, increased immigration is essential to sustaining America’s economic growth — and thus, wage gains and liberalism. Entitlement benefits to native workers.
Of course, in a world where fertility rates are falling almost everywhere, immigration is not a permanent solution to demographic decline. But the longer America can delay its population contraction, the more technologically advanced it will be when it finally faces it. Perhaps, in a world of super-intelligent AI and cheap, highly efficient robots, dealing with a rapidly shrinking prime-age labor force will be somewhat easier than our current reality.
Don’t count on Trump to put America first
It’s unclear whether Trump’s entry into the holiday season will have any policy implications at all. If the president-elect puts his executive agenda where Musk’s mouth is, it will likely amount to little more than relaxing some restrictions on H-1B visas. By all appearances, the incoming administration is far more focused on the labor needs of Silicon Valley oligarchs than the larger writs of the American economy.
Those truly interested in ensuring America’s long-term prosperity must recognize that there are more than one type of desirable immigrant. Although some right-wing populists suggest otherwise, you don’t need a college degree to do essential work.
