Unless something changes this fall, 2024 will go down as another year in which the United States made major strides in reducing homicides. Murders rose about 30 percent during the pandemic, but many cities have bounced back At pre-epidemic levels And the numbers continue to see a decline. As the summer ended, so did the murders 17 percent in American cities compared to the same period last year.
Many cities are still grappling with gun violence: This weekend, a shooting left four dead and at least 17 injured. Outside a nightclub in Birmingham, AlabamaPart of an epidemic that explains why the United States exists A gun homicide rate that is 26 times higher Compared to other comparable countries. Still, overall homicide reduction is essential to saving lives and creating safer communities.
What explains such a dramatic rise and then decline in homicides?
The United States did not experience much of an increase in crime during the pandemic. It was violent crime, especially homicide, that made waves. Homicides increased in turn, Mainly driven by gun murder – which makes Most homicides in the United States.
The risk isn’t evenly distributed across the population, either: nearly two-thirds of gun homicide victims in 2020 were black, with the largest increase in gun deaths. Men and boys between 10 and 44 yearsAnd most of these murders Happened in cities. For this reason, experts believe that the increase in homicides during the pandemic occurred initially Urban gun violence is a problem.
Experts say there are a few possible explanations for why gun homicides have stopped: The end of the pandemic has re-established a sense of normalcy. Unrest over the role of police following the killing of George Floyd — followed by protests and violence in some communities and a decrease Policing has also been relaxed.
But these explanations ignore an important fact. The drop is partly the result of a carefully coordinated effort by local officials, community leaders and law enforcement, supported in many cases by cash infusions. From the federal government. As leaders develop strategies to reduce violence, many are doing so with the help of a quietly influential book — How to Guide the Fight Against Urban Gun Violence.
Bleeding out Published in 2019, by Thomas Abt. It makes a compelling argument: that urban gun violence, rather than being a static aspect of American life, can be effectively reduced using specific, evidence-based strategies. By following the book’s principles, Abt writes, cities can save lives without having to completely overhaul their budgets or wait for long-term investments that could take decades.
Although it’s still early days, the book’s lessons are having real-world implications.
A set of strategies to stop urban gun violence
Bleeding out Drawing on existing research on what works to reduce urban gun violence, as well as Abt Own experience from stints in the Obama administration and under then-New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
He points to evidence that much of this violence is concentrated among a small number of people and in a small number of places. In 2015, he notes, more than a quarter of the nation’s gun homicides occurred in just 1,200 neighborhoods. Only 1.5 percent of the population has.
The challenge in reducing gun violence is to reach the people and the heart of the crisis and find ways to disrupt the patterns that perpetuate it.
Abt outlines three guiding principles: focus, balance and fairness. The ideas work, he argues, if you focus sharply on the most vulnerable people and places, balance law enforcement’s work with prevention and community intervention, and apply the law fairly. “The punishment itself did not work,” wrote Abt. “There is no resistance.”
Abt Research cited Suggesting that direct outreach by “credible messengers” and other community activists can help prevent this violence. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has narrowed down the promising findings that gun violence is driven in part by revenge between rival networks or gangs. Law enforcement, for their part, should inform those most at risk of violence that they will be prosecuted if they shoot someone — but also provide resources to help them if they choose not to.
its initial value Bleeding out Not only does it introduce brand new techniques, but it helps disseminate valuable existing knowledge. “He brought together all the evidence-based policy and research that was out there, in a way that was very balanced between the law enforcement part and the community part, and put it into something that was digestible not only by researchers but also by policymakers and community members. “says Vulcan Topalli, Professor of Criminology at Georgia State University. In other words, Abt took a big, complex problem and boiled it down to a concise problem leaders weren’t helpless to solve.
The pandemic has created a crisis — and an opportunity
In 2020, the year after the book was published, pandemic lockdowns began, followed by summer protests against police brutality. In many cities, police clashed with protesters and violence broke out. By the end of the year, the United States recorded the highest increase in the homicide rate in modern history, According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“It was a really difficult time,” said Abt. But it was also a moment where book concepts could be tested.
In July 2021, the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, DC, convened a Violent Crime Working Group to study the problem and try to provide solutions for cities experiencing the increase. The group, chaired by Abt and composed of experts, community leaders, law enforcement and judges, met about a dozen times, issuing bulletins on their findings. In their final report, the team made ten recommendations “essential action” Communities Can Fight Urban Gun Violence.”
wide scope The strategies involved in the required actions and closely echo the three guiding principles—focus, balance, and fairness—that Abt recommends. Bleeding out. Over the next year, communities make choices Manchester, New HampshireSome recommendations begin to be accepted.
In December 2023, the Justice Department announced its Violent Crime Reduction Roadmap, a “one-stop-shop to help local jurisdictions” combat gun violence in communities. The recommendations were familiar: they were exactly the same “required actions” proposed by Abt and his colleagues in the CCJ’s working group. as Adam Gelb, CCJ PresidentPut it, “key ideas Bleeding out It has become the basis not only for reporting violent crime, but for federal violence reduction policies.
Helping establish federal guidelines for reducing gun violence isn’t the only way the book has influenced policy. Leaders at every level are reading the book as they begin to develop their own plans for reducing violence. Alex PiqueroFormer director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics and a criminologist at the University of Miami, was on the CCJ working group and read its early drafts. Bleeding out. He saw it on a Miami police officer’s desk at a 2021 meeting and thought: “That’s exactly the audience Thomas wanted to read the book.”
The police officer is not alone. US Attorney Don Ison, who oversees the Eastern District of Michigantold Vox that he turned to Abt when developing a summer violent crime reduction plan called “OneDetroit.” “I sent him our OneDetroit mission statement, and he gave it the thumbs up,” Ison said. One Detroit neighborhood saw a 17 percent drop in targeted killings and was part of a successful strategy to reduce homicides in the city last year.
It’s not just law enforcement and government officials who have found value in the book. “When the book of Thomas came out, we were like: See? We are not crazy!” said Molly Baldwin, founder and CEO of ROCA, a community program that reaches out to youth affected by urban gun violence in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maryland.
In November 2022, Abt founded the Center on Violence Reduction at the University of Maryland, to help cities seek help. VRC is partnering with three cities: Knoxville, Tennessee; Boston, Massachusetts; and St. Louis, Missouri and surrounding counties.
As a testing ground for reducing urban violence, cities could not be more different. Boston, the largest of the three, has a strong history of such work, but Abt “helps us redirect and organize,” said Isaac Yablo, Boston’s senior adviser for community safety.
Knoxville, the smallest, is new to the effort. Without VRC’s help, “we would have spent a lot of time figuring out how to put this together,” said Lakenia Middlebrook, the city’s first community safety director. St. Louis, which is leading the effort at a regional level and is anchored by a city with one of the nation’s highest homicide rates — is still in the planning stages, but local officials say the VRC’s expertise has been valuable as they work to coordinate. Strategy across multiple county governments.
Abt provides access to experts and advises, but leaves it up to policymakers to set their priorities. Although he has formal relations with all three cities, informal discussions are always held. “Not everyone needs or is ready for some big intensive stuff,” Abbott said of his relationships with other city leaders. “You can email me.”
He tries to be realistic about his role. “I have high hopes,” Abbott said, but at the same time, “there’s a little bit of humility. VRC is a help to the cities it works in, but ultimately it’s the good people in those cities — the mayors, the chiefs and all the people on the ground — who do the work. doing.”
Not everyone agrees with his approach. Critics described Abt’s focus on “stopping the bleeding” over addressing the “root causes” of violence – economic disinvestment and ethnic division. dismissed. Others have called it an oversimplification.
Abt said he has been criticized by the left for arguing against the idea of defunding the police and by the right for insisting that in some crime-reduction efforts, law enforcement is not the solution.
“People are jumping on me from all sides. There are people on the far left who think I’m putting the wrong emphasis, and worry that my message could be misinterpreted and misused to push back to tough-on-crime policies,” said Abt. “I try to be very careful about it. I’ve had a lot of arguments with the tough-on-crimes, too.”
Still, he’s confident in his strategy, and his position as a middle ground, a data-driven approach that cuts through long-running debates over the role of policing and urban violence and prioritizes saving lives.
He said, many people want freedom from violence. “This is especially true of these most marginalized communities,” said Abt. As he tells the mayors he works with: “If you can make them safe, they will reward you at election time.”
Update, September 23, 11:00 am: This story originally appeared on September 5 and has been updated on September 21 to include news of a shooting outside a nightclub in Birmingham, Alabama.
