A man and dog walk through a flooded street from Tropical Storm Debbie on August 6, 2024 in Charleston, South Carolina. | Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Getty Images
Climate scientists say Tropical Storm Debbie, a fickle, swampy system that has already saturated four southeastern states, bears many of the hallmarks of a warming planet. It is reminiscent of other catastrophic tropical cyclones that have hit the United States in the past eight years.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the storm was moving at 5 mph near the South Carolina coast, about the speed of a monarch butterfly. It is expected to pick up speed today as it moves through North Carolina, where a foot or more of rain could fall in the southeastern part of the state and 6 to 8 inches is expected in the central Piedmont.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency this week, warning residents Wednesday to “be prepared for a deluge.”
A warmer atmosphere holds more water; Similarly, warmer temperatures accelerate evaporation. “There’s a lot of water in this system that’s ready to come out,” said Cathy Dello, North Carolina’s state climatologist. “We’re pulling that moisture into the air and essentially supercharging the atmosphere. Or, as I like to say, get a cup of coffee and pour a few shots of espresso.”
Tropical Storm Debbie is on track to become one of the top 10 warmest years on record in North Carolina. As of late June, 99 of the state’s 100 counties were experiencing unusually dry to severe drought conditions, according to the state climate office.
This pattern reversed in July, when several cities reported their wettest July on record.
“The swing between wet and dry is something we’re expecting with climate change,” Dello said. “Extreme becomes more extreme.”
Tropical Storm Debbie is reminiscent of two historic hurricanes that hit North Carolina — Matthew in 2016 and Florence in 2018. Although both were Category 1 storms when they made landfall in the United States, they caused disproportionate damage as they stalled over land and dumped historic amounts — as much as 3 feet — of rain on eastern North Carolina. Thousands of people were left homeless and billions of dollars in total damage.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are bringing heavy rain to the United States, an indicator of climate change. According to a study Published last month Climate JournalA publication of the American Meteorological Society.
John Uhling co-authored the paper with Carl Schreck III, both scientists at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.
Uhling told Inside Climate News that Tropical Storm Debbie is “a classic case of what we’ve seen a lot of in recent years,” including Hurricanes Harvey and Florence, “where we have a stagnant storm near our coastline that basically dumps the precipitation. Extended and long periods of time. same area.”
Using historical rain gauge data, Uhling and Schreck found that the heavy rain events associated with tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent and extreme. Major hurricanes – those in categories 3 to 5 – show the greatest increase in extreme rainfall
“The real impact we’re seeing is where the worst events are getting significantly worse,” Uhling said, whereas in general, “you have more run-of-the-mill events not growing at nearly the same rate.”
The study’s findings can help local governments, planners and residents prepare for these weather disasters to become more frequent, Uhling said.
This includes particularly inland regions, where the study found the highest increase in precipitation: Alabama and Mississippi through southern Appalachia, including the mountains of North Carolina. Flooding at higher elevations presents different threats – including mudslides and more challenging evacuations – than in coastal areas.
“Places that weren’t used to dealing with these types of threats have to start dealing with them more often,” Uhling said.
“It’s important that people remember that as our climate is changing, these types of events are occurring with greater frequency and the impacts seem to be greater,” he said. “Our responsibility as a society is not only to mitigate against these changes, but to do what we can to prevent them from getting worse.”
Debbie made landfall Monday morning near Steinhatchee, Florida, in the state’s sparsely populated Big Bend region, so named for the peninsula’s junction with the Panhandle. The Category 1 storm made a similar path to last year’s Idalia, a Category 3 hurricane that was strong Hitting this part of the state since 1896.
Hundreds of thousands of Floridians lost power and Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 61 of the state’s 67 counties. More than 9,400 feet of what his administration identified as flood protection equipment were deployed at schools, health care facilities and critical infrastructure such as roads and bridges. For the first time, flood control barriers were placed around utility substations, to try to prevent further power outages. Administration Dr.
Florida officials feared more flooding later in the week, as water continued to flow south from the rain-soaked states of Georgia and the Carolinas. By Wednesday, the Florida Division of Emergency Management had pumped more than 104 million gallons of floodwater from communities across the state, the DeSantis administration said.
“Places that are not used to dealing with these types of threats will have to deal with them more often.”
“It could take anywhere from three to seven days,” said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, about the duration of flooding in the state. “It’s going to be a week-long event that we’re going to monitor.”
Some serious flooding occurred about 200 miles from the Big Bend region of Sarasota, a beach community south of Tampa. As much as 12 to 18 inches of rain pummeled the community as Debbie’s outer bands moved about 80 miles offshore. Tony Hart, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, south of Tampa, said the total was the highest rainfall total in the state. Florida typically receives about 50 inches of rainfall per year.
At least 500 Sarasota residents were rescued from flooded homes, according to Police Department. To the north, in neighboring Manatee County, 186 residents were rescued, Local Govt Officials said the rainfall was record-breaking.
“You try to be as prepared as you can for any type of event like this and try to be as flexible as possible,” said Terry Chapman, minister at South Trail Church of Christ in Sarasota. “We’re thankful it wasn’t that bad.”
Some of the church’s parishioners had friends and family members affected by the flooding, and the congregation was considering the best ways to offer help. One area that was particularly hard hit was east of Interstate 75, well away from the Gulf Coast.
“These are new homes,” Chapman said. “These are houses that were built within the last 20 years.”
Warmer sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have driven Debbie’s rapid intensification, a phenomenon that is becoming more common due to climate change. James Marshall Shepherd, director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia, said a warming climate is leading to more water evaporation, creating more water vapor that can feed heavy rains like those experienced by Debbie.
“For Floridians, the intensity of rainfall from afternoon storms and hurricanes is likely to increase,” he said. “The pump is primed, if you will. I’d say these hurricanes are probably a little juicy because of the extra water vapor capacity.”
The atmosphere today has about 10 percent more moisture, said Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Sciences.
“It just compounds the problems you get from hurricanes,” he said. “You have not only wind but also more intense rain events. You have storm surges and ocean surges and slowly rising sea levels. That means rainfall in coastal areas takes longer to run into the ocean, and that compounds your flooding problem.”
Debbie was the second hurricane to hit the United States this year after Beryl offered an explosive start to the season as the first Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Beryl lost strength before making landfall on July 8 as a Category 1 storm near Matagorda, Texas, between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Hurricane season begins on June 1 and peaks in August and September before ending on November 30.
NOAA predicted an unusually active season with 17 to 25 named storms, the federal agency’s largest number since forecasting began in 1998. Strength, packing winds of 111 miles per hour or more.
Based on NOAA Unprecedented forecast A combination of factors, most notably unusually warm sea surface temperatures, which the agency said could lead to more storms. Forecasters also point to an expected rapid transition to La Niña conditions, which reduce wind shear or atmospheric shear that could weaken or disintegrate storms. The average season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
