This weekend, Israeli soldiers in Gaza discovered the bodies of six hostages killed by Hamas. The response was an outpouring of protest: Israelis flooded the streets to call for a cease-fire that would bring back all hostages and end the war, a claim that Majority of Israelis support. The Histadrut, the national labor union of Israel (end quickly) general strike.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response was to double down on the war. At a press conference on Monday night, he stressed that any ceasefire would depend Israeli control That’s something Hamas isn’t prepared to give up — across a stretch of southwestern Gaza called the Philadelphia Corridor. Netanyahu’s pressure was so revolting, in fact, that it might have Ongoing cease-fire negotiations with single torpedoes.
It is clear that the Israeli people have no faith in Netanyahu’s war management: Roughly 70 percent Believes he should resign. Despite that Ongoing protestsIt is equally clear that the Prime Minister will not change course willingly.
And it looks like he’ll probably get away with it, at least for now.
Since the war began last October, his government has faced disappointing polls for its war effort as well as sporadic protests. And yet, as with past protest flare-ups, there is no evidence that this weekend’s events have brought his government to the brink of collapse. How could it be?
The answer is brute power politics. The 2022 elections gave right-wing parties a clear majority in the Knesset (Israel’s parliament), allowing Netanyahu to form the most right-wing government in Israel’s history. Although the coalition has since become extremely unpopular, there is no way voters can throw it out on their own.
A defection from the government can only lead to collapse inside ruling coalition But currently, the biggest threat to Netanyahu’s coalition comes from his far right, which wants him to continue the war at any cost. And that’s why he seems to want to do it.
It is not impossible that other cracks in the government are beginning to show. There are certainly signs of stress, and increasing mass exposure can exacerbate them. But so far the situation seems grim. The Israeli people want to stop the killing in Gaza, but their government won’t let them.
Why has Netanyahu’s coalition been so durable?
In Israel’s parliamentary system, governments are formed by legislative majorities; Netanyahu’s government currently leads 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
Half of these 64 seats come from Netanyahu’s own right-wing Likud party. Twenty-five seats come from ultra-Orthodox parties, and the remaining seven belong to more right-wing religious Judaism groups.
These factions don’t agree on everything, but it’s hard to see any of them rebelling against the government over the ceasefire agreement.
Likud, once Israel’s relatively normal center-right party, is now a hollow vehicle for Netanyahu’s ambitions. Its parliamentary ranks consist mostly of members of the Prime Minister. Current Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is an exception. He has bitterly and openly clashed with Netanyahu over the prime minister’s incompetence in managing the war. Indeed, Gallant’s support was a major reason why the 2023 mass protests successfully blocked Netanyahu’s master plan to seize control of Israel’s court system.
But those protests were larger and more disruptive than the current anti-war protests. And so far, there is little evidence that Gallant has enough supporters within the government to fuel a wave of defections that could topple the government.
The religious groups in Netanyahu’s coalition care less about war than about preserving the rights and privileges of the ultra-Orthodox community. These priorities include priorities Fighting against the Supreme Court’s recent verdict That ends the community’s exemption from Israel’s national recruitment law, a court order that Netanyahu is moving slowly and a center-left coalition will almost certainly implement in full.
There is an ultra-Orthodox party, Shas Hostages have expressed support for the deal. But so far, there’s no indication that Shas cares enough For threatening to topple the government over the plight of the hostages.
By contrast, religious Judaism cares deeply about war – and they want it to continue. Their party’s raison d’être was expanding Israeli Jewish control over all the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, and the war proved a tremendous boon to the cause. The group has hardline leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gavir. Repeatedly threat If Netanyahu strikes some kind of long-term cease-fire agreement, he will leave the coalition.
Netanyahu cares very deeply about maintaining his grip on power: it’s the closest thing to a literal get-out-of-jail-free card that a prime minister has. Convict a criminal It may mean that he cares too much about the far-right threat to leave his government, and wants to keep the war going as long as he can, missing a major political threat on the other side.
So far, not one has emerged.
Can the opposition turn popular discontent into political power?
The protest movement, though large, draws primarily from the ranks of the Israeli center and left. Thus, it is unlikely to influence MPs from right-wing coalition parties as long as they keep their core voters.
“Both of these things are true: the government does not enjoy a majority in the elections, but it still has a large base of support,” said Noam Gidron, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Moreover, Gidron said, the fractured Israeli opposition has yet to figure out how to convert its majority public support into a concerted strategy to break Netanyahu’s coalition.
“The opposition parties are divided between centrist, more left-wing parties and Arab parties – and they don’t understand how – and perhaps even – they should work together against the government.” Benny Gantz, the leader of the most popular opposition party, seems to “use all political power and unwilling to use full force against Netanyahu.”
That’s one way things can change: the opposition getting their act together, joining street protests and trying to force Netanyahu’s hand. You can also imagine Galant finding a few more Likud defectors, attacking Shas conscience, or riling up ultra-Orthodox men.
But so far, none of that is on the horizon.
for [the government to fall]Israeli political leaders need common sense, political courage and a moral backbone. Quite frankly, there is no overwhelming majority,” Dahlia SheindlinA leading Israeli pollster, wrote in Haaretz newspaper.
