Bangladesh’s increasingly authoritarian leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, resigned on Monday and fled the country after weeks of unrest.
Hasina’s departure in a military helicopter bound for India The crowd broke curfew and came after an attack on the Prime Minister’s residence in the capital, DhakaAfter weeks of bloody protests.
The movement that eventually brought him down, started with students frustrated by their lack of job prospects and snowballed to include ordinary Bangladeshis facing increasingly difficult economic conditions. But the scenes of revelry in the capital, Dhaka, come at a heavy cost; Nearly 300 people have been killed since protests began in June and the country’s future remains uncertain as a military-backed caretaker government steps in.
After a decade and a half in power, Hasina’s legacy is complicated. On the one hand, his government has built modern infrastructure and improved development opportunities, especially for the poor. But he increasingly cracked down on the press, as well as the opposition, and various disagreements arose over time.
Army General Waqer-uz-Zaman announced on Monday that the military had taken control of the government; Parliament is being dissolved, and the government is planning new elections.
“The country is going through a revolutionary period” Zaman Dr In a nationally televised address. “We request you to have confidence in the army of the country. Please do not return to the path of violence and please return to the path of non-violence and peace.”
Although a Jan Shakti movement emerged victorious in ousting Hasina, the young democracy is entering a period of great uncertainty; Indeed, what comes next for Bangladesh is anyone’s guess.
How Bangladesh came to the breaking point
Hasina belongs to one of Bangladesh’s two political dynasties, which have traded power with each other since the country’s tumultuous and bloody founding in 1971. His father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was a freedom fighter, often called the father of Bangladesh. He was assassinated in 1975, forcing Hasina into exile in India.
But, due to her family connections, Hasina was first elected prime minister in 1996, serving until 2001, when Hasina’s foil, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, was elected. Zia He was released from house arrest on Monday on the orders of President Mohammad Shahabuddin.
Hasina and Zia, head and widow of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party Former Prime Minister Ziaur RahmanOnly two elected leaders in Bangladesh since 1991. BNP was in grand coalition against Awami League with 19 political parties And boycotted the January 7 elections.
This sharp polarization — Awami League versus everyone else — is part of the reason for the protests. Another part is economic. For many educated youth in the country, a stable path means a job with the government, but that has become increasingly impossible. Protesters blamed a quota system that reserved up to 30 percent of government jobs for relatives of soldiers from the 1971 war for independence – but which protesters alleged favored Awami League members and allies.
Hasina was credited with an economic upswing soon after coming to power for a second term in 2008. “The government has had a relatively strong economic record in its 15 years in power,” Geoffrey McDonaldA visiting expert at the US Institute of Peace told Vox. “There has been incremental development, infrastructural development, [increased] Income rates, and many human development indicators surpass many of its neighbors.”
But “a lot of growth in Bangladesh has been in areas like textiles, which are not major employment streams for university graduates,” he said. Paul Staniland, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, told Vox. “So this quota system was seen as artificially limiting the supply of jobs to educated people.”
But Bangladesh’s economic problems are not limited to the middle class; Like South Asia and other countries of the world, Bengalis are also suffering from high inflation. About 9.9 percent As of this writing – making it difficult for the common man to afford the basics.
Politically, the Bangladeshis were also upset; The 2018 elections and this past January were widely seen as fraudulent, and people no longer felt they had a voice to choose a government that could respond to their needs.
“This process of an autocratic nation really deepened and lasted for five-six years where Sheikh Hasina really got behind many of her enemies, be they part of the BNP, be they liberals, whoever — really strong and determined. Personalizing his regime,” Stanley said. “And so this kind of run through the recent election, which, you know, is widely seen as deeply irregular.”
These events, as well as the government’s incredibly violent crackdown on protesters, ignited a national movement that succeeded in ousting Hasina.
“We were expecting some kind of crisis, but I didn’t think he could leave because he’s such a strong character,” Fabeha Monir, an independent journalist based in Dhaka, told Vox. But the police response, “increased one way and then so much that it was intolerable, intolerable for the nation.”
Mid July, police began cracking down on protesters, issuing curfews and orders to shoot. The government has also stopped internet and mobile usage.
Bangladesh is in the midst of a historic transition – but no one knows what will happen next
Along with the establishment of the state, the assassination of Hasina’s father and the return to democracy in 1991, the protest movement and Hasina’s departure would be one of the defining events in Bangladesh’s history.
Details of Hasina’s resignation and exile are still emerging, but the protests could not have developed as they did — thousands eventually breached Hasina’s residence — without a military strategy, or at least a refusal to crack down on Hasina’s wishes.
“Many armed students died, and everyone started blaming our military,” Monir said. “Then they started supporting [the protesters for] A few days now.”
The military in Bangladesh has historically been strong, and although Hasina appears to have consolidated it somewhat during her rule, it still appears to retain some independence, Staniland said.
“My guess is, the military was not willing to kill hundreds or thousands of people to stop the next wave of protests that developed,” he said. “And that was the trigger for him to leave.”
While there is genuine excitement over Hasina’s departure, there is also widespread concern about what will happen next. In the best-case scenario for democracy, a caretaker government can ensure elections that lead to real, progressive reforms. It is far from certain, however. The military may cling to power, or more right-wing, Islamist parties may take over the government.
The bigger concern for now is the spread of more violence — this time, not just against protesters, but against Awami League supporters, especially members of minority groups.
Bangladesh is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state. Although BNP Leaning towards political Islam and more conservative. The Awami League, which is secular, appeals to religious minorities in the majority Muslim society, as well as ethnic minorities such as the Rohingya from Myanmar, whom the Hasina administration tried to support when they began arriving as refugees in 2017.
“I think we’re probably going to see a lot of retaliation against local Awami League officials — police and security officials,” McDonald said. “Hindura is historical vote bank of Awami League. And there are also lingering tensions between religious communities in general.”
