France’s government fell on Wednesday after a no-confidence vote in the country’s prime minister, throwing the country’s political future into disarray and exacerbating its budget and economic crisis.
A successful vote means centre-right Prime Minister Michel Bernier will be out of a job and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to find someone to replace him. This is not expected to be an easy task: while the president nominates prime ministers in France, his picks, like Bernier, can be ousted at any time by a no-confidence vote. And the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament, is almost evenly split between the far right, a loosely united and controversial left and centrists including Macron’s allies. Few candidates will please all three parties.
Disagreement over who should be prime minister led to Bernier’s rise after last summer’s surprise election. He was seen as a competent, if not popular, choice for the job and had enough approval to win the prime ministership. But he faces a significant challenge trying to rule without a majority. His recent attempt to push through the 2025 national budget without a vote in the lower house of parliament has angered lawmakers on both the right and the left. As a result, France’s far-right party and its left-wing coalition each tabled no-confidence motions.
France is stuck now. In the absence of a Prime Minister, the government’s legislative powers are disrupted. In the long term, Bernier’s removal could deepen France’s ongoing budget crisis and reflect an unprecedented polarization in French politics, for which a solution seems out of reach.
Who are the players involved?
There are three main figures in the distrust play: Bernier, the prime minister; Macron, President of France; and Marine Le Pen, the ideological architect and former leader of the far-right National Assembly party, who played a key role in Bernier’s downfall.
Bernier, a fairly traditional French conservative, has had a long career that has included stints in the French government and the European Commission, most notably as the European side’s chief Brexit negotiator. He lost Wednesday’s no-confidence vote and must resign. Macron could reappoint him, but he has indicated he will not accept the job. His tenure is one of the shortest in modern French history.
Macron is an angry, deeply unpopular president. He needs to quickly appoint another prime minister to pass the government’s budget and, hopefully, prevent an economic crisis from engulfing France. (More below.) However, dysfunction in the National Assembly limited his options.
Macron’s main rival is Le Pen. He has long coveted the French presidency but has so far failed to secure it three times. He may try again during the next presidential election in 2027, but may be barred from running, depending The results of the corruption trial the following spring. If Macron were to resign and there could be a snap election this year, there would be nothing to stop him from entering the race – and he has. led to some speculation Bernier’s ouster was part of a larger plan to force Macron to resign. (He says he’s not going anywhere.)
Whatever Macron decides, Le Pen is able to manipulate her party’s power in the National Assembly and exert her own influence to topple Bernier and cause chaos in the French government. He marshalled his party to vote with the Left Coalition’s no-confidence motion – even after that Pushed Bernier to align with his party on key issues in exchange for his party’s endorsement of his budget.
“He is fed up with the political elite and … wants his revenge,” Patrick Camorelsenior resident scholar at the Stanford Center in Washington, told Vox.
Why is the government in trouble now?
France’s political turmoil didn’t exactly begin with Barnier; To understand what is happening now, we have to go back to July.
Snap parliamentary elections were held in France following the disastrous defeat of Macron’s party in June’s European Parliament elections. Macron’s decision to hold the election was a surprise and he hoped voters would reject the far-right at home. Instead, those elections saw Le Pen’s National Rally Party (or RN) gain ground, as did far-right parties across Europe.
On election day, it seemed all but certain that the RN would defeat various left-wing parties and Macron’s centrists. But a last-ditch effort to keep the right-wing out of power He formed the New Popular FrontAn uneasy alliance of four left-wing parties. now, They have the largest bloc in the National AssemblyBut there is not enough power and support to get them Approval of the elected Prime Ministerial candidate by the National Assembly. Those left-wing parties threatened No confidence vote against Bernier Since he has taken over.
The fragmented parliament has a bigger problem to deal with: a huge budget deficit, which is compounded by a political crisis.
So far, the The country’s budget deficit is 6.1 percent of its GDP and rising, and debt stands at 3.2 trillion euros. more than one serious crisisSlow economic growth and low tax revenues — along with the Covid-19 pandemic and energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine — put the country in this position. french The company has started layoffsAnd the workers are getting increasingly angry.
Simply put, France’s economic situation is not goodAnd if the country wants to change that, it needs a real budget that both starts bringing money into government coffers, not to mention a government that can enact policies to strengthen the overall economy.
Bernier was tasked with finding a way out; His proposed budget was supposed to save around 60 billion euros by imposing heavy taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Reducing government spending, including pensions and healthcare reimbursements.
Given the French tradition of a strong social welfare state, an austerity budget would certainly be unpopular. It was. Unable to garner the support of the RN, he used his Constitutional power Passing the budget without a vote in the National Assembly – triggered a motion of no confidence by the left and right wing blocs.
What will happen if the government collapses now?
In the short term, Bernier would have to resign as prime minister and his cabinet would be dissolved. he will probably stay Until Macron can name his replacement. In France, the Prime Minister conducts most domestic policy while the President conducts international affairs.
The government will still continue its day-to-day operations – unlike a government shutdown in the US, government services will continue. But no new laws can be passed until Macron appoints a new prime minister.
This will not be an easy task; Because the National Assembly is so polarized, it is difficult to find a candidate who will get majority support. (The prime minister does not have to be approved by parliament, but since the bloc can initiate a no-confidence vote at any time, the president must appoint someone who can survive.) France cannot hold another parliamentary election until next summer.
Both the RN and the far-left party France Unbod (also known as the LFI, part of the New Popular Front coalition) have both called on Macron to step down, which he has said he will not do. The next French presidential election is scheduled for 2027, but both the RN and LFI hope to force out Macron and run their own polarizing candidates.
In the long term, France’s budget crisis isn’t going anywhere as long as there is no government in place Pass a 2025 budgetAnd successfully passing a new budget would probably mean acquiescing to Le Pen and the RN.
For now, Le Pen and her party have used their power to topple the government, but Camorelle said there is a downside to that, too. “He’ll keep his staunch voters,” he told Vox. “But he will be held responsible.”
