While it was already overshadowed by a flood of post-election analysis of Donald Trump’s victory, Tuesday also marked a serious escalation in Russia’s global campaign of sabotage and intimidation targeting the United States and other Western powers.
Polling sites in several states received bomb threats — later determined not to be credible — that the FBI said in a statement “appeared to originate from Russian email domains.” threat Several polling stations were forced to close Temporarily in the swing state of Georgia. “We have identified the source and it is Russia,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters Tuesday. Polling sites in the swing states of Michigan and Arizona He also received threatsAlthough it is unclear whether this was part of the same campaign.
There are other officials Recommended Anyone can spoof Russian email addresses, and the Russian government was quick Deny any involvement. US intelligence community warned earlier For the election, the Russian government is spreading disinformation in the United States through social media to “undermine the legitimacy of the election, instill fear among voters about the election process, and suggest that Americans use violence against each other because of political preferences.” ” US authorities said the Russian government was behind the smear attacks targeting Democrats The vice presidential candidate is Tim Walz And False allegations of voter fraudAmong other examples of confusion.
As anyone who has followed American politics over the past decade knows, the Russian government has tried to interfere in US campaigns before. As was the Russian government in the last two elections Trump was believed to be favoredwho often speaks of his good relationship with President Vladimir Putin and has criticized both NATO and US support for Ukraine.
This time, though, it may not matter so much in the end. Although Russian confusion was widespread, including X owner and Trump supporter Elon MuskNothing appears to have had anywhere near the political impact of the hacking alleged to have been orchestrated by the Kremlin this election cycle. Democratic National Committee in 2016Which US intelligence agencies also believe was arranged by Russia.
Andrei Soldatov, an investigative journalist and analyst who has written several books on Russia’s security services, said this year’s campaign to target the US election was different from past efforts. It also differed from recent alleged fraud campaigns to help Moscow’s preferred candidates in elections in former Soviet states. Georgia And Moldova.
“The goal was not to actually change the election results,” Soldatov told Vox. “It was about gestures, about reminding Americans of what’s at stake and about sending a message about what could happen if America continues to support Ukraine.”
Although the election is over, Russia’s efforts to send this message are not, and they may ultimately take forms that are more violent and destructive than empty bomb threats.
Out of the gray area and into the blue
Two days before the election Dr The Wall Street Journal Report Western security services believe two incendiary devices seized on board planes in Europe over the summer were a test run for a Russian operation to start fires on US-bound planes. The devices exploded without injury at logistics hubs in Germany and the UK, but Poland’s intelligence chief said, “I’m not sure that Russia’s political leaders are not aware of the consequences if one of these packages explodes, causing mass casualties. Incident.” The Russian government has denied involvement.
It follows a campaign of arson and sabotage across Europe that intelligence officials say shows growing recklessness on the part of the Kremlin. as chief Britain’s foreign intelligence agency MI6 put It, “Russian intelligence services have gone a bit wild, frankly.”
In recent months, Russian agents have been accused of carrying out sabotage attacks on US and German military targets, arson attacks in the UK and Lithuania and attempting to kill a major German defense contractor, among other plots.
Notably, Soldatov said the campaign went beyond anything the KGB attempted in Europe or the United States during the Cold War and should be seen as Moscow’s attempt to increase the cost of Western support for Ukraine, an effort that is separate but complementary. To Putin’s periodic threats to use nuclear weapons.
“People sometimes think that the only way Russia can grow is through nuclear weapons,” Soldatov said. “But what we saw in 2024 is that there’s actually a lot more way to go.”
Disorientation and sabotage are the types of tactics often referred to as “gray zone” or “hybrid” warfare: imposing costs on an adversary while maintaining reasonable deniability. The goal here is to do enough damage to get past the point without triggering an all-out military war. But that line is a narrow one, and some officials say Russia’s behavior is pushing the limits of a gray area.
“I’m not sure if this can be called a hybrid event or a gray zone event,” Lithuania’s foreign minister told a panel at the NATO summit in Washington in July. It’s pretty clear that [these are] Terrorist attacks by a hostile neighboring country against NATO countries.”
Moscow gets its people
Trump, after all, did promise An immediate end to the war in Ukraine, perhaps by pressuring Kiev to accept at least some of Moscow’s demands. Could the Kremlin dial back the campaign now that its preferred candidate is returning to the White House?
It is possible. Russian leaders responded Open cheering for Trump’s victory in 2016 But was greatly disappointed His administrationWhich, for all its words for Putin, also saw one A raft of new sanctions Moscow and against sales Anti-tank weapons in Ukraine.
Moscow is being more cautious this time. A The statement responded Wednesday For Trump’s victory, the Russian Foreign Ministry credited him with countering the “globalist” path of the current US administration. It added, “We have no illusions about the president-elect, who is well-known in Russia … The US ruling political elite adheres to an anti-Russian policy and policy of ‘containment of Moscow’. This line does not depend on changes in America’s domestic political barometer.”
One of the risks of engaging in gray zone tactics is that you can’t always be sure how your opponent will react, and it’s hard to know when a red line will finally be crossed. Trump, for one, has prided himself on his unpredictability. Like everyone else after what happened on Tuesday, Putin is probably waiting to see what comes next.
