House Republicans may soon be experiencing some serious deja vu.
On Friday, January 3, the newly elected Congress will convene for the first time and vote for House Speaker. Like last term — when it took 15 rounds to elect former GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy — the race could be messy because of Republicans’ narrow majority. and anti-conservative to incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson, who is again his party’s candidate for the job.
At stake is Republicans’ ability to get much done in the near term. The house cannot go on without speakers. Which means that important tasks, such as certifying the January 6 presidential election, is at risk of being delayed. Any speaker drama sends a pointed message about the enduring divisions within the party — and how they could pose a real challenge to the GOP’s efforts to pass real policies in the coming year.
Republicans have a 219-215 majority — One member less than expected Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said he would not return – So Johnson can only afford to lose one GOP member if all Democrats vote against him, as they could. (A candidate must win a majority of all votes to secure the jobSo if all 434 members vote for a speaker option, Johnson would need 218 votes to win. (That math becomes more complicated when some members vote “present.”)
already, Representative Thomas Massey (R-KY) Said he would not support Johnson and others Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX), Andy Harris (R-MD), and Scott Perry (R-PA)Refrain from committing their votes.
Johnson has been scrambling in recent weeks to lock up the support he needs, including protections Endorsed by President-elect Donald Trump on Mondayas well as its support Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who have been taken to weigh in on Congressional infighting. It’s not yet clear, however, whether that support will be enough to win over his skeptics, who are angry about Johnson’s reliance on Democratic votes to approve funding bills and frustrated about the lack of leadership clarity on key pieces of legislation.
The House needs a Speaker to function
Disruption by any Speaker effectively disrupts the basic functions of the House.
As prescribed by a 1789 law, Everything from swearing in members to forming organizational committees to passing new laws requires a speaker. The election of the speaker — which is conducted by a public roll call vote — must ultimately occur before any other congressional business.
January 2023 The fight over McCarthy’s election A preview of the possible consequences: As the voting process stretched over several days, members became concerned about their inability to deliver material services and receive classified briefings, since they had not yet technically been sworn in.
Unlike in 2023, though, Congress has some considerations beyond the day-to-day work of this term. The House will likely have to fill the speaker’s role to certify the results of the presidential election on Monday, and failure to do so could delay Trump’s certification of victory. CNN reported On Thursday, Johnson’s allies cited that concern as a reason for his detractors to back off.
If the House fails to elect a speaker by Jan. 6, lawmakers could try to push the certification date to the end of the month to clear the procedural hurdle or examine other unprecedented options, such as electing a temporary speaker. It’s not certain, however, that House lawmakers, a nonpartisan official who advises Congress on rules interpretation, would go along with such a solution, according to George Washington University professor Sarah Binder, an expert on congressional rules.
Binder noted that there are ways the House can use a temporary speaker to conduct emergency business, but lawmakers can advise against doing so. If they did, lawmakers would likely abide by the ruling because MPs’ decisions usually carry significant weight. (The MP’s advice is not binding, and Lawmakers have ignored it in the pastBut these instances have been rare.)
The potential chaos is a preview of Republican divisions — and the fight ahead
Any speaker fight also signals how deeply divided Republicans remain — and how chaotic efforts to advance their policies continue to be. It also shows the strength of the party’s right, which is holding a two-term speaker’s race hostage in 2023 to make claims about coveted positions on committees and the power to remove House leadership.
“It’s a reflection of the inherent divisiveness and partisanship in the House Republican conference,” Binder told Vox. “Whether we date them to Donald Trump, whether we date MAGA, whether we date it to the Tea Party. [movement in 2009] Or beyond that… [or] Activist conservatives vs. the establishment, the Republican Party has long been shaped by this centrist party.”
McCarthy’s controversial election – and governance – last term provided a vivid preview of these fault lines. In January 2023, it took multiple rounds of voting over four days—finally resolved in the early hours of January 7—before McCarthy was elected Speaker, thanks to conservative opposition to his leadership. To win the Speaker’s gable, McCarthy eventually made significant concessions to far-right members, including seats on the Rules Committee and the power for any Republican member to unilaterally vote to remove the Speaker.
The right wing of the party eventually succeeded in ousting McCarthy from the Speakership in October 2023, triggering another scramble for the position. It took more than three weeks for Republicans to fill the seat again, with multiple nominations and multiple floor votes before Johnson’s promotion.
It was McCarthy’s decision to work with Democrats to pass a short-term funding measure that ousted him, and on multiple occasions since then, Johnson has had to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government open and pass major foreign aid packages as his own convention failed to agree on them. There were too many fractures.
These divisions, combined with narrow margins in the House — which will soon become even narrower, as two Republican House members are set to join the Trump administration — will be tested again and again in 2025. The speaker’s race will be Republicans’ first hurdle, but any GOP effort to pursue ambitious immigration and tax bills or even keep the government open could prove fraught during the Trump administration.
“The stakes are high for them 1735859538″Because they’ve got Trump in the White House and they have a policy agenda,” Binder said.
