Even before two men attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump, national security experts and law enforcement warned that the U.S A plan was needed To combat the possibility of political violence on election day.
Now, in the final weeks of the campaign, researchers have just revealed New search About the social life of people who can support the use of political violence, and are willing to use it themselves.
The results, based on a nationally representative survey of more than 8,000 Americans, may seem counterintuitive. Basically, people are open to the idea that political violence exists at opposite ends of the just, social spectrum. Those who reported no strong personal or work connections were 2.4 times more likely to say political violence was justified than those who had 1-4 close relationships. That’s not necessarily surprising, given recent history mass shooter And Politically motivated attackers who have been Their larger networks describe them as lonely.
What was strange, though, were people with many close connections Also Slightly more likely to support political violence. Those who said they had 50 or more strong ties were 1.2 times more likely to support political violence.
And here it becomes a trifle: people with no social connections were unlikely, on average, to say that they would personally be willing to commit political violence, even if they believed it was justified. But many close relations people? They were 1.5 times more likely than others to say they themselves were willing to be violent for political reasons.
What’s up with those super socially connected people? Julia Schleimer, the researcher who led the study, told Vox via email that, compared to people with only a few close contacts, the 50+ group tended to be whiter, higher in income, slightly more educated and older. But this was also true of the middle population (which reported 10-49 social connections) and they were not particularly open to the idea of political violence.
In other words, the researchers had no demographic factors about the jumping group. “One limitation of this study is that we do not have a detailed description of the nature or characteristics of people’s social networks, which is probably very important and an area for future study,” Schleimer said. but in the past Study “Give us reason to expect that people with very large social networks may be at greater risk for political violence if those networks are characterized by antisocial norms, outgroup contempt, and extreme views.” This is especially true, he said, when social networks are homogeneous. Sometimes these groups form in person, but increasingly, they also develop online, like Proud Boys and other far-right groups. who organized in the days following Donald Trump’s 2020 election loss And On January 6, the Capitol was attacked.
The study was conducted by the University of California, Davis Violence Prevention Research Program (VPRP) builds on the data Published earlier this year About Americans’ belief in political violence. The good news from earlier work is that a large majority of Americans are opposed to political violence under any circumstances. More worrying news? A small portion of Americans are open to the idea that political violence is sometimes justified.
“I personally think that large-scale political violence is really, really unlikely. I feel clearer about that prediction given our 2024 data,” program director Dr. Garen Wintemute told Vox this summer. “But sporadic outbreaks, especially if battleground states are really close — is that possible? Sure. Could be an attempt to intimidate election officials? Absolutely.”
The Violence Prevention Research Program applies a public health approach to issues like gun violence and political violence — meaning they look for interventions that can try to discourage them from happening. The new findings suggest it’s important to develop methods that target both those who are lonely and those who are not, Schleimer said. Those deeply associated, for example, with extremist ideological groups. Loneliness, social skills training, community centers, cultural activities and a more open and accessible city can all be helpful. And both groups benefit from anti-violence messages from influencers Public statistics And social media. For socially isolated individuals, having a trusted figure who can support them as they begin to open up to different perspectives and challenge their normative beliefs can be especially helpful.
The ideas sound really simple, but the researchers’ previous work suggests that getting someone to reject political violence is probably easier than you might think. “For fighters, if their families tell them not to, or friends or even some media sources tell them not to, a big number will change,” Wintemute told Vox. “We can create an unacceptable environment for political violence. And in doing so, we can hope that it works.” Their results in that regard are encouraging. But in a highly divided country open to political violence, reaching every individual with so many guns? That’s the tricky part.
