President Donald Trump has vowed to enact his plan on mass deportations beginning on his first day in office. But while he has begun to lay the legal groundwork to drive the policy, it’s not clear that deportations are on the rise yet — and they may not be for a while.
Trump issued a flurry of executive orders designed to enable mass deportations in his first week in office. These include directives to expand the use of fast-tracked deportations; reducing the number of immigrants apprehended at the border and released into the United States; emphasizing cooperation between federal immigration officers and local law enforcement; crack down on “sanctuary” cities and reportedly refuse to cooperate; and target cartels and members of transnational criminal groups now designated as terrorist organizations.
Trump administration too Refusal policy guidelines that prevent immigration arrest In sensitive places like schools and churches and that Looking at the prosecution of state and local officials In sanctuary cities and states.
Trump officials are suggesting that these actions have already increased deportations. They made a point Highlighting New Deportation Aircraft Charter and their plans for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including in major cities Newark, New JerseyAnd that was another Suspended in Chicago.
Trump press secretary Caroline Levitt says “deportation plane has begun” X post. “President Trump is sending a strong and clear message to the world: If you enter the United States illegally, you will face severe consequences.”
But according to experts, it is not clear that the number of deportations is higher than normal so far.
“Until now, Ice hasn’t done anything unusual,” said Queer Quohtmoke Garcia Hernandez, a professor at Ohio State University College of Law and the author of several books on US immigration enforcement. Welcome to the bad.
The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.
So, how do we know when mass deportations have begun in earnest — or if they will happen at all?
How Trump’s Deportation Is Still Measured
Despite claims that he would preside over record deportations during his first term, deportations under Trump never left those under former President Barack Obama, who was dubbed the “deporter-in-chief”. Obama has deported about 2.9 million people 1.9 million in his first term and his second, including about 400,000 in one year. That surpasses Trump’s 1.5 million deportations and Joe Biden’s 1.49 million.
In his second term, it’s unclear whether Trump is still picking up the pace. Biden is virtually exiled 700 people a day In fiscal year 2024 and after Thursday’s campaign, Ice announced that it was Deported 538 people.
Such raids could be the symbolic beginning of mass deportations. But Trump will have to retain them and expand them over the long term to reach him The goal of deporting “millions and millions” is mentioned.
About 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in the United States. The Trump administration wants to prioritize the first estimate 1.4 million Among those who have a final order of removal, essentially the final step in legal proceedings before deportation.
“If all Ice performs is a series of splashy operations that take up a lot of resources but come infrequently, it would be a sign that the administration is better equipped to intimidate immigrants than to arrest them and deport them in numbers that far exceed the agency’s capacity to do so. The amount exceeds that accomplished under Presidents Biden and Obama,” said Garcia Hernandez.
What can we expect moving forward?
Actually implementing Trump’s plan for mass deportations requires a large-scale and costly mobilization of government and law enforcement. That won’t happen overnight.
“We don’t see a significant increase in actual deportations this year, even with the Trump administration’s best efforts, simply for logistical and financial reasons,” said Stephen Yale-Lohr, a professor of immigration law practice at Cornell Law School. Millions of people won’t.”
Law enforcement powers to both secure the border and conduct mass raids within the US do not exist right now. Trump’s plan would require huge investments to get ice, detention facilities and immigration courts operating at the level that they are. The money must be approved by Congress, which already greenlighted another expensive immigration bill last week and may be reluctant to drop more funding on the issue. But Sen. Shawn Ross, deputy chief of staff to Katie Britt (R-AL), told Axius that she would Pushing for ice funds Through the budget reconciliation process and future appropriations bills.
Another hurdle is tracking migrants, which may require cooperation with local law enforcement that sanctuary cities are reluctant to provide so far.
Even those that wander around the ice can’t be banished instantly. Trump has sought to expand what’s known as “expedited removal” so that anyone who entered the United States within the past two years can be deported without a hearing before an immigration judge. But people who have not recently come to the United States are entitled to such a hearing and The immigration court backlog currently stands at about 3.5 million cases. New arrests and deportations of people added to that backlog can take years.
These practical challenges will make it difficult for Trump to quickly implement his campaign vision for mass deportation. But its reality is not so important as how the public perceives its agenda.
“What he’s trying to do is a public relations campaign that sows fear and chaos in the immigrant community and assures his base that he’s doing everything he can to enforce immigration,” Yell-Lohr said. .
