The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released this information last week World population potentialAnnual report of the international organization on the current and future state of world population.
The headline was clear: the days are well past us Concerned about having more people than the world can handle. UN demographers now expect the number of people on the planet to be slightly less than 10.3 billion in 2084.
That’s two years earlier than the UN recently predicted peak population as 2022, and considerably earlier than forecasts from just a few years ago, when population wasn’t expected to peak until the 22nd century.
10.3 billion, of course, is about 2 billion more people than the planet currently has, so population growth isn’t stopping anytime soon, but it’s slowing down fast. Women now have one fewer child on average than in 1990, and in more than half of all countries and regions, the lifetime fertility rate is below 2.1 – the number needed for the population to replace itself through births alone. And as of 2024, total population has already peaked in 63 countries or regions, including Russia, Germany and China, which passed India as the world’s most populous country last year.
It’s impossible to discuss global population without landing in the middle of a culture war, whether it was in the 1970s or now, when accurate. with many New Republican VP candidate JD Vance, rising pushing Controversial maternity policies designed to increase family size. What you think about population change — whether you welcome it or fear it — will depend on which side you fall in this fight.
Fights over population policy will continue, and they are important, involving reproductive rights, fiscal policy, and cultural values. But when it comes to population sweeps in the 21st century, they’re largely beside the point. It’s because of “something called”Population dynamics“
Fertility rates are declining everywhere and government policy on birth control That reality has almost completely failed to change, future population is going to be mostly a function of how many adults of reproductive age a country has, which is already largely fixed. UN demographers may be off by a few years or a few hundred million people, but changes are usually baked in “All populations,” John Wilmoth, head of the United Nations Population Division, told AP, “Following a similar path.”
Which means the important question we face is not how to change a world headed for peak population in 60 years. It’s how to understand it and react to it.
extreme decline
The UN population report is full of startling predictions, but perhaps nothing like this: China, where the fertility rate is now just one child per woman, is predicted to drop from 1.4 billion today to 633 million by 2100. A drop of more than half, and it would see China, a country long synonymous with population size, reach a level not experienced before the 1960s.
According to the United Nations report, China is part of about 20 percent of the world with “ultra-low fertility” – meaning less than 1.4 per woman. Another country in that group is South Korea, which has the world The lowest fertility rate is 0.72. By 2100, South Korea’s population is expected to halve to just 27 million. Even more surprising: By then only 800,000 South Koreans are predicted to be children under the age of 5, while nearly 11 million will be 65 or older.
China and South Korea’s population declines will be extreme, but other countries will be close behind them. A further 48 countries and territories – including Brazil, Turkey and Vietnam – are projected to peak in population between 2025 and 2054.
Before they get there – and well after – these countries and the rest of the world will be much older. It’s partly a success story – after the Covid-19 pandemic plunged, global life expectancy Increasing againIt is estimated to reach 73.3 years in 2024 and continue to grow to 77.4 years in 2054. However, the results will be gray globally: children under 18 are currently outnumbered by those aged 65 and over worldwide By a ratio of about three to oneBy the late 2070s, the elderly will outnumber children
Importance of immigration
The United States is an exception in the rich world in that its population will continue to grow through the 21st century, projected to reach about 421 million by 2100. But it’s much less a function of fertility — US fertility has been below replacement levels for years — than it is of the country’s openness to immigration. Recent census estimates show that if immigration to the United States were to stop tomorrow, the U.S. population would immediately begin to decline and Only 226 million hits by 2100.
The fact that it may be impossible to meaningfully change fertility rates means that countries can control immigration, which has more influence on how big or how small the U.S. will be in future decades. But even that is a relative change. Until we start getting immigrants from the outside world, every new citizen of one country is a loss to the population of another country.
A New World Order
Even as population growth around the world slows and eventually reverses, some countries with young populations and relatively high fertility rates – mainly in sub-Saharan Africa – will see massive growth.
As a result, the makeup of the world will look very different by the end of this century. Nigeria is projected to become the second most populous country in the world after India, where the population will more than triple to over 700 million. Pakistan’s population is expected to grow by over 100 million. The Democratic Republic of Congo, which now ranks 15th in the world in terms of population, is predicted to reach seventh place with 388 million people – more than the United States today.
We’re only just beginning to grapple with what an old, shrinking world would feel like. Population change is a bit like climate change: a mega-trend that will do much to shape the kind of future we and our dwindling descendants will live in. The difference is that changing the course of climate change is within our control through energy and environment policy. Despite the culture war rhetoric, it is not primarily about demographics. All we can do is adapt.
