Indian Elections 2024 Biggest in World History: About 1 billion people They are eligible to cast ballots. Conducting such a massive election is an extremely difficult task, especially in a middle-income country where poverty remains. All very common.
With caste, religion, language, gender, and wealth all playing a role in shaping Indian voters’ decisions, there are dozens of different parties on the ballot, along a variety of fault lines.
But at its core, the election is a really big deal: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s democracy-threatening quest to revolutionize the Indian state.
If the vote is Dr Even closer to Dunn, he would win an order to finish what he started.
Key issues in Indian elections
Ever since India ousted the British in 1947, the country’s elections have been one of the greatest surprises of the democratic world.
Any election in a large country poses logistical challenges — just look at some Lines at polling stations In the United States. These challenges are magnified a hundredfold in post-colonial countries without villages electricity or flowing water. Yet India’s non-partisan Election Commission has managed to consistently run well-respected contests for decades.
The 2024 election was a long process. vote Started on April 19 and moved on Seven stages Until a conclusion on June 1. Results are expected just three days later, on June 4.
India has a parliamentary political system: control of the Prime Minister’s office is determined by a majority vote in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the legislature. This means that, outside of Modi’s own constituency in the northern city of Varanasi, Indian voters are not directly voting for him. Instead, they are voting for local members of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or many of his rivals.
But there is no doubt that the Prime Minister is at the center of this contest. He is contesting for a third term, which is exceptionally rare in Indian politics. Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, the most influential leaders in India’s post-independence history, have only won three separate elections.
There is reason to believe that Modi is on that “most influential” list, for better or (more likely) for worse. Since first assuming office in 2014, he has aimed to change the very identity of the Indian state. He has already come a long way.
Post-independence India is a formally secular state. Nehru and other founding leaders of India, such as jurist BR Ambedkar, faith That is a complex and diverse society – India 22 official languages And multiple religions – could not survive across sectarian lines.
Even before independence, there was a counter-movement called the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). took the opposite position: that India is a state for Hindus, with Muslims and other religious minorities positioned as interrelated (or worse). Electoral wing of BJP RSS; Modi has become a member RSS since the age of eight.
Modi’s main goal during his time in office was to make the RSS ideology, also known as Hindutva, the ruling ideology of the Indian government. He has been remarkably successful: long-held Hindutva goals, once seen as impossible extremist dreams, have become reality. Examples include passing a citizenship law Discrimination against Muslims and revoked the right to self-determination of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state.
To ensure that nothing stands in the way, Modi has taken the sledgehammer to Indian democracy. His government jailed opposition political leaders, helped friendly oligarchs consolidate control over the press, intimidated the courts, suppressed protests, changed electoral laws, and The independence of the Election Commission has been undermined. His government’s crackdown has gone international: In a recent piece, I revealed the existence of a massive campaign to threaten to silence American critics of Modi’s human rights record.
There is every indication that Modi’s crackdown on both democracy and minority rights will continue if the BJP wins this election. Which means the beard basically can’t be higher.
Modi will almost certainly win — but the election still matters
At this point, Modi’s third term looks highly likely.
It has been suggested for a long time that the BJP’s majority in the Lok Sabha is almost a lock. Modi is very popular personally; At a time when most incumbents worldwide are struggling, Morning Consult’s international tracking poll found that Modi is more popular than any other leader in the survey. There are many reasons for his popularity among Hindu voters beyond support for his ideology — including Strong if uneven economic growth – But that’s part of the story, of course.
Many opposition parties in India are in disarray, a strategic alliance to coordinate efforts against the BJP Limited profit. The historically dominant Congress party, the party of Nehru and Indira Gandhi, is a shell of its former self: its leading figure, Rahul Gandhi, is a (slightly unfair) fame As a Nepo baby who is not ready to compete with an ambitious and charismatic politician like Modi.
In other words, it is very possible that BJP will win even in a completely fair election. With everything from the media environment to campaign finance in favor of the incumbent, this election is playing out on a skewed playing field, meaning we can be assured of a third term for Modi.
Yet if you grant that, there are some real stakes left in the competition. While a BJP victory seems inevitable, its margin of victory is much harder to predict — and quite crucial for India’s future.
If it achieves a two-thirds majority, it will have enough votes Amend the Indian Constitution. If there is a larger majority than this – three-fourths majority is the Prime Minister Said he was shooting — then he would have a clear popular mandate for sweeping change. But if the party fails in its stated goals, or even loses seats, Modi’s assault on Indian secularism and democracy may slow.
A lot is happening in Indian elections. But in essence, its supreme stakes center on one fundamental question: How much power will Indian voters place in the hands of one of the world’s most dangerous authoritarian leaders?
