The primary test of whether a country remains a democracy is whether the party in power can still pound the ballot box, India passed on Tuesday. The results of the country’s parliamentary elections – the world’s largest – signal a stunning electoral blow for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
“Hazard”, to be clear, is a relative term here. At the end of a frenetic six-week election, Modi will become only the second Indian prime minister to win a third consecutive term. As of this writing, the BJP-led National Democracy Alliance (NDA) won It is leading in 289 seats and one more in the 543-seat parliament. 272 seats are required for majority.
BJP itself won 240 seats. More wins than any Indian team Between 1984 and 2009, when Modi first came to power, and in most elections, this would have been a surprise result. But the expectation game is real, and Modi and his party have lost it.
During the campaign, the NDA had a stated goal of winning 400 seats: A supermajority that would allow them to push through major legislative and constitutional changes. They didn’t come close. And after winning one Absolute majority On its own in the last election, the BJP now has to rely on its smaller alliance partners in the NDA to form the government.
Weekend exit polls Also was wildly wrong, almost incorrectly projects a 350-seat win for Modi. (One of Tuesday’s more bizarre media moments involved a prominent pollster Breaking down in tears On Indian TV his wrong predictions and being consoled by his fellow panelists on camera. (Not something you’d see from Frank Luntz.)
The opposition Congress party, most recently under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, is heading towards political oblivion A much derided fourth generation descendant India’s most prominent political dynasty looks set to double its tally since the last election.
It’s too soon to say it’s the end or even the beginning of the end for Modi and the BJP, but they are facing something they haven’t had in quite some time: meaningful opposition and uncertainty. And the world’s largest electorate has shown that it is still capable of wonder and freedom.
The way Modi messed up
So what’s wrong with Modi? In a country of 1.4 billion people, there could easily be many factors, and it is still too early to make definitive statements. But there seems to be a growing consensus that India’s economy and pocketbooks have taken a hit A priority for many voters BJP is clearly on religious and ideological projects.
India has seen rapid GDP growth and infrastructure investment during the Modi years, Unemployment remains stubbornly high And in many parts of the country, Wage growth has stabilized.
The ruling party suffered the biggest loss Came to Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and a longtime BJP stronghold. The most symbolically significant seat may be lost Ayodhyawhere earlier this year Modi presided over the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, a massive and controversial new Hindu temple built on the site of a historic mosque demolished by Hindu nationalist mobs in 1992.
Writing in Vox earlier this year, Jacques Beauchamp described the temple as “a monument to the monolithic philosophy of Hinduism built on the ruins of one of the world’s most notable secular democracies.” BJP’s loss in Ayodhya was unimaginable.
But it seems not everyone is buying Modi’s ideological vision. A Prescient piece published in the Washington Post Last week, Indian journalist Barkha Dutt wrote that her interviews with voters across the country suggested that religious discourse and projects like the Ram temple were not as important as electoral issues. Even BJP supporters focused on economic growth and Modi’s personal qualities rather than communal concerns.
“When I ask what changes they would like to see him make, I always hear two answers – more focus on jobs and a toning down. down of religious rhetoric,” Dutt wrote. A farmer in Uttar Pradesh told him, “Politics based on religion is worthless … all we want is 24/7 electricity, enough water for irrigation and opportunities for our children.”
Instead, Modi seemed to dial up the Hindu nationalist rhetoric in the final weeks of the campaign, Accusing his rivals Plans to redistribute Hindu wealth among Muslims. Looks like it didn’t work.
Democratic Resilience of India
Domestic and international critics have been sounding alarm bells about the state of political institutions in the world’s largest democracy for years, as Modi has presided over discriminatory policies targeting the country’s religious minorities as well as harassment of journalists, NGOs and opposition politicians. Not only in India but abroad. Bringing India down”Electoral dictatorship” in the widely cited V-Dem index and now only classified as “Partially freeBy US NGO Freedom House.
These autocratic tendencies were on full display in the run-up to the election, with the opposition accusing BJP workers and the police Harassing opposition candidates for withdrawal.
It would be a stretch to say that Indian voters have given up Modi’s approach. He is still indisputable The most popular leader One of the largest democracies in the world. But the election results at least suggest he is not immune to the political gravity — inflation, slow growth, polarization, anti-establishment sentiment — that has Leaders have been dragged elsewhere.
Modi will remain a dominant force in Indian politics (and a significant force in global politics) for years to come, but his rise seems less inevitable and impregnable than it did a few days ago, and the politics of the world’s largest democracy are looking just right. A little more democratic.
