If you follow the news on gun violence in America, you know there’s a lot to be pessimistic about.
Guns were already a major public health concern when the epidemic hit and homicide rates skyrocketed. Increase in homicides in 2020 and 2021, study finds Best understood as an increase in gun violence, With the majority of firearm-related deaths accounting for the increase. Not all communities are equally affected: In 2020, 61 percent of gun homicide victims were black, The biggest increase Among boys and men aged 10-44 years. The following year, according to the Gun Violence Archive, the number of mass shootings — shootings in which four or more people, not including the gunman, were shot, injured or killed — reached 689More than 50 percent from the number of mass shootings in 2018.
And then the Supreme Court issued a ruling that effectively allowed all Americans to carry weapons in public. Gun violence is coming on the heels of an alarming rise, experts warn It will almost certainly get worse.
But actually it didn’t happen. Some of the worst-case scenarios based on recent trends around gun violence have yet to pass. To be clear, the United States still has exceptionally high levels of gun violence. The country has More guns per capita than any other nation in the world, and A messy patchwork Laws that make it extremely difficult to regulate. Because of this, the country is incredibly vulnerable to seeing more gun-related deaths in the future.
But we’re used to bad news about gun violence, and the fact that Republicans refuse to pass better gun regulations makes it easy to think the issue is hopeless and out of tune. So it’s important to recognize that in some key ways, this year was better than last year – and 2024 was an important step in the right direction.
US sees fewer gun deaths in 2024
Homicides may have fallen at the fastest rate on record this year, according to Crime Data Analyst Jeff Asher — which is especially impressive when you consider that homicides fell at the fastest rate on record last year. These numbers will almost certainly be revised slightly, but the overall picture is unlikely to change. because The vast majority As homicides in the US are firearm-related, it’s safe to attribute this decline to the decline in gun deaths. and it is expressed as large, The number of murders has doubled In cities that have long suffered from gun violence epidemics, including Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Washington, DC.
It’s hard to overstate how meaningful this is. As Asher Note“The rapid decline in homicides resulted in more than 5,000 fewer murders this year than in the years 2020 to 2022.”
The pandemic-era homicide spike, in other words, appears to be over. What happened? Experts caution against attributing the rise in homicides to any single cause. but Back to work and school after pandemic breaks and closuresAnd a new effort to reduce gun violence in many US cities supported by federal funds has almost certainly helped Whatever the cause, the result saves thousands of lives.
There was no outbreak of political violence
A key concern of gun and political violence researchers in 2024 is whether we will see an outbreak of unrest following the presidential election. The concern was not unfounded. Recent studies show that a small but alarming number of Americans increasingly believe that a more violent era of American life is coming. A small percentage Among these people said that violence is justified for political reasons, and they are willing to participate in political violence.
Then, in July, a gunman opened fire on President-elect Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and came close to hitting him in the head with his hair raised (instead, according to investigators, the bullet Trump’s ear.) Two months later, another tried again — though that time the Secret Service was able to respond before shots were fired.
“The set of circumstances most likely to produce political violence in this country over the next few months is a closely contested election, with momentum swinging toward the Democrats and high-profile instances of political violence already occurring,” political violence researcher Garen Jay Wintmute said in a first. told Vox after the assassination attempt.
Polls ultimately show a close election. Trump repeatedly attacked the legitimacy of the electoral process. And the memory of January 6, 2021, when the then-president incited a mob to a violent, armed uprising at the US Capitol to protest his election defeat, was fresh in everyone’s mind.
But that didn’t happen—perhaps because the election wasn’t a long, drawn-out fight, and Trump probably won. Whatever the reason, the United States has come back from the brink of a dangerous moment. That’s not to say the country didn’t find itself there again, and soon. The recent shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, and The lionization of his alleged killer, Luigi Mangione, revealed that the American public may have a greater openness to political violence than previously realized. And studies of mass shooters show that when a shooter gets a lot of public attention, It inspires copycats.
In 2024, however, the worst fears about electoral violence did not materialize.
And it’s not just political violence. Although a student from Wisconsin Killed classmate and teacher In December, overall, mass shootings also appear to have declined in 2024, 656 incidents in 2023 to 491 in 2024. No one’s sure why – but it’s undoubtedly a good thing.
Ghost guns are easier to hit
Thompson’s killing in December was newsworthy for several reasons, one of which was that it appeared to be the first high-profile killing using a ghost gun — in this case, the alleged shooter 3D printed himself.
ghost gun No serial numberThat makes it difficult for law enforcement to track where they came from. For that reason, they are especially appealing to people who want to commit crimes and not get caught.
They have become a huge problem in recent years, with the number of such weapons recovered from crime scenes increasing A staggering 1,083 percent between 2017 and 2021. Many of these guns were not printed in-house, as Mangione apparently was, but instead were sold online as easy-to-assemble kits. Just a ghost gun maker 88 percent were responsible for gun recoveries During that time
The government has taken quick steps to solve the problem. In 2022, the Biden administration said that ghost gun kits and their receivers (or frames) were subject to the same federal regulations as regular guns – means, they need a serial number. The rule was challenged in court, but the Supreme Court appears likely to uphold the law, which the government says is necessary to crack down on untraceable guns. Meanwhile, gun manufacturers are responsible for the majority of guns shown at crime scenes was struck with the suit. appears They are closed. According to an analysis by traceThe number of ghost guns recovered from crime scenes is now falling in several cities.
Of course, the U.S. still has too many guns — and a regulatory system that’s like Swiss cheese. As long as that happens, the country will likely deal with high levels of gun deaths. But this year’s developments show that the situation is not hopeless. Meaningful efforts to combat gun violence and control firearms work — and can save lives.
