A virulently xenophobic demagogue – who had incited a rebellion against the US government less than four years ago – is on the run. Track to win the White House this fall. And the only remotely viable option for him, for now, is a widely unpopular, geriatric Democrat who has advertised his inability to speak in complete sentences on national television.
That’s what we’re facing in the wake of Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in Thursday night’s presidential debate. A comprehensive account of how we arrived at this dire moment would require a multi-volume history. But one reason for our current predicament is worth highlighting: Democratic presidential candidates have repeatedly failed to choose running mates with their party’s long-term best interests in mind.
The vice president is not always going to be the president’s nominee. But they do very often. In partisan primaries, few resume items are more advantageous than a tenure as successor to a beloved president. Given this reality, a presidential nominee should aim to pick a running mate they will consider. extremely selectable
Unfortunately, the last two Democratic presidents did not prioritize political chops when choosing their VPs.
Barack Obama didn’t pick Joe Biden because he thought the then-Delaware senator would make a great Democratic nominee in 2016. By contrast, by most accounts, Obama thought Biden would be a completely ineffective candidate in his own hypothetical time frame. The presidency is over. And he reportedly chose Biden precisely for that reason.
According to talks with senior Democrats Gabrielle Devenedetti of New York Magazine In 2019, Obama assumed that Biden would be too old to run for president by 2016. And he argued that this fact would make Biden a particularly loyal second-in-command: bereft of his own political ambitions, Biden would have no regrets. All about putting Obama’s interests and goals above all else.
As it happened, Obama misjudged his running mate in more ways than one. In hindsight, it appears likely that Biden would have been a stronger nominee in 2016 than Hillary Clinton — Obama’s hand-picked successor — proved.
Still, Obama was certainly right — even eight years ago — that Biden, then 71, was much older than an ideal presidential candidate. Instead of making the Delaware senator his running-mate, or putting his thumb on the scales for Clinton, Obama should have found a veep who was his political boss and boasted a demonstrable ability to compete in a swing state. Instead, he placed the interests of his own campaign and future administration over the long-term best interests of the Democratic Party, possibly damaging his own legacy in the process.
Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris in 2020 was even more perplexing. When he made the choice in August 2020, there was little reason to believe that Harris was one of the most politically powerful Democrats in the country.
Harris had just mounted an exceptionally lackluster bid for the presidency. Then a senator from California, Harris ran for the Democratic nomination Strong donor support and one Early wave of voting. Despite these early advantages, Harris failed to maintain his coalition in the months that followed—and his campaign collapsed before the first primary ballot was cast.
Harris’ electoral track record before 2020 was not particularly encouraging. He has never won an election in a swing state or a competitive district. And in his first statewide race in deep blue California in 2010, Harris defeated his Republican challenger by less than 1 percentage point. Two years ago, Barack Obama won that state by more than 23 points.
Given that Biden turns 77 in August 2020, the odds of his running-mate one day becoming his party’s standard-bearer are unusually high. It was entirely plausible that health problems would force him to retire before the end of his first term, let alone his second. And if Harris were an incumbent, no other Democrat would have a chance to defeat him in a contested primary. For this reason, Biden’s primary consideration in choosing a running-mate should be his or her electability.
Instead, he placed great weight on demographic considerations. “I think he came to the conclusion that he should pick a black woman,” former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said. told the New York Times In the summer of 2020. “They are our most loyal voters and I think that the black women of America deserve a black vice-presidential candidate.”
Without question, it is desirable for a vice presidential candidate to strengthen the constituencies most loyal to the Democratic Party. This is a measure of selectivity. But it is not clear that Harris actually possessed that power; After all, his 2020 campaign resonated so little with black voters in South Carolina that he was forced to withdraw before that state’s primary.
Regardless, the ability to appeal to voters to please loyal Democrats is electorally valuable. A Democratic voter who would otherwise stay home increases your margin by 1 point; Flipping a Republican voter in your column increases this by 2.
The desire to represent historically marginalized groups at the pinnacle of American power is a justified one. Such representations have the potential to shift cultural perceptions of race and gender in a progressive direction (although, as Obama’s presidency shows, it also has the potential to catalyze a reactionary response). But such broad cultural changes are of less consequence than public policy for the most vulnerable in American society. Working-class black women have more to lose from Congress The courage of Medicaid and a civil rights department that prioritizes Anti-white discrimination They have to benefit from seeing someone of their race and gender abused in national elections.
In 2020, there were plenty of non-white-male Democrats with proven records of appealing to swing voters to choose Biden. Amy Klobuchar won repeated landslide victories in light blue Minnesota. Tammy Duckworth unseated a Republican incumbent in a purple Illinois House district before later winning election to the Senate. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer demonstrated her appeal to Rust Belt independents. Tammy Baldwin repeatedly won the Senate race in Wisconsin.
Instead, Biden chose a running mate who few in the party considered a superior general election candidate, even though — had Biden won — there was a high probability that Harris would be his party’s standard-bearer for the foreseeable future.
Harris for the past two years Poor poll numbers – and democratic Lack of internal confidence in his political acumen – eased pressure on Biden to resign and allowed his party to run a younger and unpopular nominee. Many party leaders argued that Biden was a safer bet than his vice president.
After Thursday night, it appears this scenario was wrong. For all his liabilities, Harris’s approval rating is slightly better than Biden’s at the moment. As an orator the Vice President has some gift and no lack of vitality. Given the immense difficulty of coordinating behind a non-Biden candidate at this late date, there is an arguable case that he is now the Democratic Party’s best option.
Given the importance of keeping Trump out of power, however, we deserve a better alternative. And if Obama and Biden had prioritized the long-term best interests of their parties when choosing their running mates, we’d probably have one.
