Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is still covered in dust from Israeli airstrikes in his underground cell, and Israeli targets have been bombed ever since. Beirut, Lebanonfrom Damascus, Syriafrom Rafah in Gazafrom Hudaydah, YemenWe see, emerging from the fog, the outlines of a new Middle East.
Israel’s primary objective in launching devastating attacks on Gaza, Lebanon and beyond was to cut off both the heads and the hands of its enemies. The overriding strategic motivation, however, is much more than that.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about a day when, decades ago, Israel’s military superiority was so overwhelming that no other power in the region dared challenge it. Both the year-long Gaza campaign and the ongoing offensive of the past two weeks are primarily about re-establishing what, after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, was arguably lost: deterrence. It’s all about deterrence, demonstrated by an overwhelming, asymmetric response to any military provocation.
Israel’s post-October mission
The only possible break in the Gaza response is what happened Many have described it as genocide Israeli leaders face the potential threat of international condemnation in the form of sanctions and formal war-criminal status, as well as the loss of US military and political support. It is now clear that Israeli officials who feared this outcome need not, and need not, fear for the future.
In the context of Hezbollah and Iran, the two main members of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, some observers, including myself, felt that Israeli resistance was permanently lost after October 7, replaced by a mutual “balance”. terror” so that neither they nor Israel would willingly resort to all-out war. The Israelis have exploded that illusion, quite literally.
In the past two weeks, Israel has called Hezbollah’s bluff, using everything from rigged pagers to multi-thousand pound bunker-busters. What we have learned is that Hezbollah’s long-range missile capabilities have been seriously overgrown. counter By Israel’s effective “Iron Dome” antimissile system. As Israel continues to pound leadership bunkers and weapons caches at will from uncontested airspace — Hundreds of civilians live in Lebanon — The Lebanese Shiite militia has been revealed as a paper tiger.
On Monday, Israel again launched a “limited” ground attack to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure, but it is unlikely to repeat its mistakes from past attacks in trying to hold ground. However, the endgame is over, Hezbollah will soon have to accept what is now widely demonstrated, just as it has been for months. disaster Israeli aggression of 2006: It was completely overblown and would, once again, be forced to withdraw and rearm.
We can stop fearing a larger regional war because it is already being fought, and Israel has largely won it
For Iran, this has two lessons Massively weak missile attack Israel’s Iron Dome this year, compared to the success of Israel’s ongoing attacks on its allies in Lebanon, certainly hit home. Tehran may feel compelled on Tuesday to respond to repeated Israeli insults delivered to Lebanon, Syria and Tehran’s heartland, but make no mistake: the clerics who control Iran are anything but suicidal. We may not know exactly how Israel will respond to the latest attack, but Iran will find a way to climb down before the exchange gets completely out of hand.
This means we can stop fearing a larger regional war because it is already being fought and Israel has largely won it. And with that, the relative deterrence Israel sought has been restored.
A reconstructed Middle Eastern consumption
This does not mean that the emerging regional balance, although favorable to Israel at the moment, is stable. Even after the beheading of its leadership, Hezbollah is still a powerful institution; Militant groups, not the Lebanese government, remain the main force in the country. The next round of conflict, when it comes, will likely find a reorganized Hezbollah stronger than ever.
Far away in the Persian Gulf, Iran’s newly-inaugurated president, Massoud Pezeshkian will probably be forced Domestic political considerations, if not international diplomatic inertia, sidelined any idea of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. He would instead focus on achieving the real deterrence that only nuclear weapons could provide.
Hezbollah still insists it will continue its attacks on Israel until the Gaza war ends, but nearly a year after October 7, that war is over. Israel has gained almost everything there militarily at a terrible cost to the Palestinian people of Gaza. Even after the guns are mostly silenced, Israel may see the odd missile salvo from Lebanon or the occasional terrorist attack. But the terrorism Israel’s enemies must resort to will be a sign of weakness, not strength.
The future of Palestine is no longer a question. Diplomats in the US, Europe and the Arab world can save themselves the effort: there will be no negotiations and no resolution in Gaza or the West Bank unless unilaterally imposed by Israel and tacitly permitted by the US.
Netanyahu, whose Political rehabilitation is well underwayAnd others who would refer to Israel’s extreme right are hardly losing sleep over the good governance of Gaza. “Solutions” have already arrived in this region.
Israel will maintain its physical control The Philadelphia Corridor The border with Egypt and the east-west strip bisect the remainder of the enclave, essentially preventing the reconstruction of tunnels through which Hamas could otherwise rearm and preventing the free movement of armed fighters within Gaza. With little effort, Israel could continue to control the flow of international aid to Gaza’s destitute population and use disproportionate and overwhelming force against any new flicker of resistance. If Gaza devolves into chaotic sectarian warfare, it will raise little concern in Jerusalem, which will only care to permanently remove the viable threat of militancy.
We have seen similar principles of asymmetric military response to armed Palestinian unrest The effect of speaking in the West Bank cities of Jenin and Tulkarm in recent weeks. Israel responded with a combination of heavy air- and drone strikes, ground incursions, and the deliberate destruction of businesses and civilian infrastructure. These actions, incremental but hardly new, are meant to quell a popular resistance A massive wave of Israeli settler-led post-October 7 violence Aiding and abetting, as a matter of course, against the Palestinians Official policy by the Israel Defense Forces.
All of this encapsulates a fundamental principle of forced poverty like the Palestinians Banned from employment They were formerly in Israeli-controlled areas and as Israel Regularly withholds tax revenue It is systematically underestimating that put together by the Palestinian Authority. The message to Palestinians in Israel is clear: resistance is futile.
Israel’s 40-year program of unrelenting occupation of Palestinians through land grabs and settlements, a long slow and insidious process, has become increasingly swift and obvious since October 7. Even if the occupied Palestinian territories are not formally annexed, a single Israeli state is. River to sea is all but inevitable.
Clearly apartheid will remain to manage its optics. Although neighboring Jordan is unlikely to facilitate the expulsion of Palestinians, it may be difficult to stem the desire of individual Palestinians to flee local poverty and frustration in neighboring countries. Nominally voluntary exile is, arguably, the Israelis’ policy of the extreme right. And while it won’t be easy, time is on their side.
A campaign of state terror
What we are witnessing is state terror, committed throughout the Levant, limited only by the vastly different capabilities of the fighters. To panic, one must ignore civilian casualties. For Israel, such willful indifference to suffering carries the risk of joining its adversaries as an international pariah. But Israelis are discovering that, unlike their enemies, striking a balance carries some practical consequences, as Implicit American support.
The American response to Israel’s stunning but bloody military success is entirely predictable. Exuberant Republicans are demanding proof of their grudging support for Israel’s ruthless military tactics. Former President Donald Trump on the fate of the Palestinians already clear We can expect his baseline ethos to be, albeit one associated with an unethical respect for PR optics: Do what you think, “but get it over with quickly.”
Democrats, despite their discomfort with civilian casualties on the ground, will Maintain their traditional principles Israel’s unwavering political and military support. They can feel differently, and they are acutely aware Significant generational flux American attitudes toward Israel and Zionism, especially on the left. For now, the political reality remains unchanged: Israel still can More support orders Any American president of any party in Congress could ever hope.
Vice President Kamala Harris, though she may betray human feelings, will follow the example of President Barack Obama before her: She will not sacrifice valuable political capital and her entire legislative agenda on the altar of a two-state policy gambit that has zero prospects. Successes Palestinian casualties have provoked mass protests in the US and may continue to do so, but they have yet to meaningfully change US policy.
There are Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia pause Diplomatic efforts that might otherwise have so far resulted in a historic compromise with Israel should be seen as little more than deference to domestic political optics.
Human emotions aside, Geopolitical interests A de facto Saudi alliance with Israel remains in the driving game. A generational change in the leadership of the Gulf states has brought relative indifference to the Palestinian cause. Memories of crushed babies and wailing mothers will soon fade if the media turns its back. Competing national interests in countering Iran, a shared enemy, and promoting high-tech Israeli investment.
While we look forward to a time when Israel’s Shiite opposition is ready to engage again, there may be little left for war. Nothing is so persuasive, or so diverting, as immutable facts on the ground. For those on the “Axis of Resistance,” the deep hatred for Israel generated by the events of the past year will fuel at least another generation. Even if the threat they pose to Israel never materializes, it ensures that the Israelis cannot rest easy. And for Israel, if the reality of apartheid on the Palestinians becomes undeniable, it will shrivel the national spirit. For now, no matter how much we want to think otherwise, in our time as much as at any time in human history, maybe – for those brave enough to practice it – still wins in the end.
