The results are not yet in, but if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and regains the presidency, he could radically change international politics.
Trump has made it very clear on the campaign trail that he believes major changes are needed in US foreign policy: “We’ve been treated very badly, most of the allies … our allies treat us worse than our so-called enemies,” Trump said to the audience At a campaign event in September Wisconsin. “In the military, we protect them and then they push us into commerce. We will not allow this to happen again.”
These are not empty promises. Presidents have wide foreign policy latitude and can unilaterally enter into or withdraw from many international agreements.
“It really varies in terms of exit criteria, agreed to from the treaty, but there are very few that require congressional approval to withdraw,” Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, told Vox.
During his first term, Trump pursued what he called an “America First” foreign policy, which saw him withdraw from major international agreements, launch a trade war with China, verbally antagonize allies and attempt complex negotiations with a number of US adversaries.
During this campaign season, he has vowed to continue his efforts to dramatically change or otherwise circumvent international agreements, including the NATO security alliancein ways that could fundamentally undermine the United States’ place in the global system.
Of Trump’s stated foreign policy positions, his planned protectionist trade policies will likely be the most immediately damaging to Americans; His proposed tariff hikes would spark a global trade war and raise prices for American consumers. In the long run, his conception of the US role in international affairs could erode US diplomacy and weaken institutions such as NATO and the United Nations. It could have a lasting impact on the geopolitical landscape, as did the foreign policy decisions of his first term.
Trump’s isolationist first administration, briefly explained
During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, Trump decided to withdraw the United States from several international agreements, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran deal. That deal, negotiated in 2015 under President Barack Obama, essentially eased US sanctions in exchange for curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and allowing it greater international oversight.
“The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided deals for the United States,” Trump said when the deal was scrapped in 2018. Iran has built up its stockpile of enriched uranium and increased its missile supply, It is said to bring the program much closer to developing nuclear capabilities — despite Trump administration promises that Iran will never get them.
Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord, which commits all signatories to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Other diplomatic casualties of the Trump administration include Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), a Cold War-era treaty between the United States and Russia limiting the development of short- and intermediate-range nuclear weapons; D Open Skies Agreementwhich allows signatories to conduct military reconnaissance fly-overs; and two International Migration Convention.
Trump’s first administration also saw him repeatedly criticize NATO. He argued that the other countries in the military alliance were not spending enough on defense (and were beginning to spend more), questioned whether the group was still necessary, and in 2020 About 10,000 troops stationed in Germany withdrewA decision “designed to send a message about the limits of what Americans are willing to spend to protect foreign borders and, more broadly, to uphold the global order,” said Philip Gordon, foreign policy adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris.
What Trump can do in his second term
In his second term, Trump has again promised to withdraw from international agreements and organizations.
He clearly promised to withdraw from the United States Paris climate agreement againAfter re-entering the deal under US President Joe Biden. And he may limit U.S. cooperation with UN agencies that his administration has been critical of, e.g World Health Organization. He also introduced a variety of new duties—sometimes more than new taxes 20 percent on US trading partners And recently threatened Tariffs up to 100 percent in Mexicoof the United States Largest trading partner for products in 2024.
One partnership that will be difficult for Trump to change is the US agreement with NATO. There is no provision for withdrawal in the NATO Charter. As Kavanagh explained, “Recently, Congress passed legislation specifically targeting NATO that would require congressional approval to withdraw from NATO,” in an effort to further protect US membership in the alliance.
Even with those safeguards, there are ways that a second Trump administration could hollow out NATO or other US military agreements, e.g. USA, South Korea and Japan Deter China and North Korea.
“Trump can decide to change the US posture in any country, whether it’s in Asia or Europe, and simply withdraw troops, close bases, stop investing in joint infrastructure and all the committees and logistics parts that keep the alliance going, which is our ally.” And keeps the partners engaged,” Kavanagh said. “Any president can do that.”
But ignoring NATO and alienating those allies isn’t the only way the Trump administration could undermine U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, according to James Lindsay, a senior fellow on U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“A lot will depend on how he staffs his administration,” Lindsey told Vox. “We don’t have a good idea of who’s going to be a secretary of state, a secretary of defense, who’s going to be. [or] National Security Adviser.” People in these positions can have serious implications for all kinds of foreign policy decisions, from how (and if) cease-fire negotiations are conducted to which countries receive arms transfers.
In the absence of a strong, experienced diplomatic apparatus, Trump may try to negotiate foreign policy as he has in the past. This effort had bad results, while his Attempts to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 2019 ended with no guarantees from North Korea to stop developing nuclear weapons and no fundamental change in relations. Talk to him the taliban Leads to the withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the fall of the civilian government in Afghanistan.
As president, Trump has made big promises about the nature of negotiations — such as ending wars in the Middle East Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours – But as was the case in his first term, the reality may be much harder and messier than he suggests.
