President-elect Donald Trump didn’t wait to begin his second term before throwing Congress into disarray, sinking a bipartisan spending deal and making demands of his own as the government shutdown began at midnight.
In a sense, it’s the latest installment in an all-too-familiar saga involving House Republican dysfunction in the spending fight, and Trump’s willingness to embrace chaos and throw things into chaos.
The surprising aspect of the current showdown, though, is exactly what Trump has chosen to pick up this fight: He wants to suspend or even eliminate the debt ceiling.
“Congress must release or extend ridiculous 2029 debt limit,” Trump His social media platform Satya Social posts Friday morning. “Without it, we should never have made a deal.”
The debt ceiling is a limit — set by law — on how much new debt the US government can issue If it is not raised or suspended in time, the country will default on its debt; It is widely believed that economic disaster will follow. Republicans have used the threat of a debt default to try to force Democratic presidents to make policy concessions, and Trump fears Democrats will try something similar against him in 2025. So he wants the debt ceiling suspended now — or even scrapped altogether
This was an unexpected turn of events because the initial bipartisan agreement did not address the debt ceiling at all: it only funded the government for three more months, while also including several other provisions that won bipartisan support.
When, on Wednesday, billionaire Elon Musk publicly attacked the deal, he complained about the bill “Additional costs” and also made Sometimes wrong claims About those add-on provisions. But he said nothing about the debt ceiling — which, if suspended, would allow Trump and Republicans to spend more freely
Trump then suddenly put the debt ceiling on the agenda by condemning the deal in a statement Wednesday afternoon. “Raising the debt limit is not great but we want to do it on Biden’s watch,” he posted on Truth Social, calling out Republicans.Stupid and incompetent“For not addressing this issue earlier and complaining that”The debt ceiling guillotine is coming in June“
On Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson scrapped the bipartisan deal, dropped several add-on provisions and added an increase in the debt limit, in line with Trump’s wishes. Some conservatives who cheered Musk’s criticism of the initial deal’s big spending are now horrified by this turn of events, believing the debt ceiling is an important tool to help control spending. More than three dozen House Republicans broke with Trump to vote against the new bill Thursday evening, and since nearly every House Democrat also opposed it, it failed.
But Democrats are still considering how to deal with this unexpected turn of events. Democratic wonks have long loathed the debt limit, believing that irresponsible Republicans used it to “hold” the economy to blackmail Presidents Obama and Biden, and many would gladly see it abolished. However, the party’s congressional leaders may hope to preserve it as leverage against Trump and are less inclined to acquiesce to Trumpian demands issued from on high — if there is a deal, they want to be part of that deal.
What this tells us about the politics of Trump’s second term
This situation is still in flux and we still don’t know how it will end. But there are a few telling aspects of what has already happened.
First: While some have claimed that Musk killed the initial bipartisan deal and that Trump and the Republicans are just puppets dancing on the strings of the world’s richest man, that doesn’t seem to be what’s really happening.
It’s unclear exactly why Musk was so vocal against the bill, or whether he was freelancing or working in coordination with Trump.
In addition to complaining about excessive government spending, Musk created Various false claims As for what was in the bill, the bill included a 40 percent pay raise for members of Congress (it was a 4 percent increase), and it included $3 billion for an NFL stadium in Washington, DC (not true at all).
there is something indicated The bill, which also included restrictions on technology investment in China, where Musk has business interests, has raised questions about whether it was intended to backfire. (That provision was then dropped from Johnson’s amended bill.)
What Musk wanted, once Trump got involved, he wanted something completely different: raising the debt limit. And Kasturi fell behind his strategy.
Second: Congressional Republicans are not locked behind Trump on policy, and internal tensions that have rendered the party dysfunctional on spending issues still exist.
Trump praises Johnson’s revised bill”A very good deal“But 38 House Republicans then voted against it. Trump angrily threat Republicans to support primary challenger Rep. Chip Ray (R-TX), but Ray was motionless.
Roy is part of a group of dozens of House Republicans who have long been hostile to bipartisan spending deals with Democrats and have long made wildly unrealistic demands for spending cuts. Their reluctance to support Republican leadership proposals means, in effect, that GOP leaders must rely on Democratic votes to pass government funding bills. Trump has yet to find a way around this dynamic.
Third: Trump’s willingness to defy conservative dogma presents opportunities and dangers for Democrats.
Democratic wonks believe that repealing the debt ceiling would be a great thing for the country and ultimately benefit future Democratic presidents by removing this GOP hostage-taking tool. However, the group is wary that supporting Trump in this way will make it easier for him to push an agenda they fear and oppose.
The path of political least resistance would be for Democrats to oppose everything Republicans do and maximize friction in the fractured GOP coalition. However, it is also possible that, if they negotiate effectively and think about the long term, there is a chance for serious policy wins.
Imagine a world where there are no more debt limits — no more fake crises, no more risk of default, no more foreclosures. It would be wonderful! Can they make it a reality?
