Arguably the strangest candidate in the 2024 election is expected to drop out soon.
After a controversy-filled campaign that included revelations that a The worm had eaten away part of his brain And that he was responsible for the bear carcass appeared mysteriously In 2014 in Central Park, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and his running mate Nicole Shanahan, are said to be planning to suspend their presidential bids. he Consider approval Former President Donald Trump and he is said to be optimistic Confirm Trump’s position as health secretary If he wins.
Kennedy was an environmental advocate known for His job is to clean up the Hudson River with a storied last name, who has become known in recent years for spreading conspiracy theories about medicine, including Vaccination And Anti-depressant. He used the popularity he gained Anti-vaxxers during pandemics to briefly challenge President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary before announcing an independent bid for president in October 2023.
He was seen as a potential spoiler for both candidates because of his ties to the Democratic Kennedy dynasty, as well as his embrace of anti-establishment and anti-vaccine views espoused by certain segments of the GOP. he was About 10 percent of the vote Nationally for the better part of 2024, and even more so in some swing state polls.
But he Many states struggle to get ballotsHis campaign maintains, however, that he has obtained enough signatures to do so in all but Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Wyoming. And after Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, she seemed to have less influence among voters turned off by Biden. His poll no cratered as a result Below 5 percent.
Despite Kennedy’s flagging national numbers, polling suggests his exit from the race could still help Trump, whom he has become. Definitely more comfortable In recent months. Trump doesn’t need to win over many of Kennedy’s potential voters to make a difference in key swing states; If the race goes as it did in 2020, Trump could make up the difference by a fraction of a percent over Kennedy.
Kennedy’s exit could help Trump — perhaps where it matters most
Trump probably gained the most from Kennedy’s exit. Kennedy has increasingly endeared himself to Republican voters while struggling to gain similar support among Democrats and independents. And polls conducted in recent months, since Biden dropped out of the race, suggest Trump will pick up more of Kennedy’s supporters. Any margin will likely be small – but potentially significant.
Republicans view Kennedy more favorably than Democrats, and those who have a favorable view of him have a more favorable view of Trump than Harris, according to a July AP-NORC Poll Biden managed to drop out.
Several national polls conducted since Harris became the presumptive nominee have examined a race between Harris, Trump, and Kennedy, as well as a two-way race between Harris and Trump. Dropping Kennedy was a bigger shock to Trump than Harris.
in a August Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered votersFor example, Harris received 42 percent support, Trump 37 percent, and Kennedy 4 percent, while 15 percent supported another candidate, were not sure who they would support, or were not sure if they would vote at all. But when voters were pressed to choose between Trump or Harris, 49 percent favored Harris and 47 percent favored Trump — a 10 percentage point increase for Trump.
Trump had a similar edge with Kennedy voters a July Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. In a three-way race, Harris won 44 percent, Trump 47 percent and Kennedy 10 percent. In head-to-head polls, Harris garnered 48 percent and Trump 52 percent.
If Kennedy were out of the picture, the advantage Trump would have seemed relatively small. But Biden won by a lot in 2020 narrow margin In six major battleground states; In Arizona, it was less than 11,000 votes At the margins, Kennedy’s supporters could make a difference depending on where they were distributed.
In Arizona, for example, Kennedy is still polling about 6 percent, according to Hill polling average. Of course, if he decides to stay in the race, he won’t actually win by such a large margin; Third-party candidates tend to poll much better than they do on Election Day, when their supporters face the reality that their preferred candidate will not win. But that vote share would have been more than enough to swing the 2020 outcome the other way.
The same is true in other swing states, where polling suggests very tight races. A start August New York Times/Sienna The survey of registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found that Harris led Trump 46 percent to 43 percent when respondents were given a choice of all third-party candidates. When asked to choose between Harris and Trump alone, the gap tightens to 48 and 46 percent, respectively. who States can be importantTheir upper Electoral College votes are counted — and in most cases, Harris needed all three to win.
Harris’ entry into the race likely limited the impact of Kennedy’s exit
Although Kennedy’s supporters may still be able to exert an important influence at the margins, their power to pull the vote for the Democratic nominee appears to have diminished substantially.
Before Harris was nominated, there were a larger than usual number of disaffected voters who didn’t like Biden or Trump and wanted someone — anyone — as an alternative. A theoretical no-name candidate as an alternative to Biden and Trump received about 10 percent in an Ipsos poll conducted earlier this year.
Kennedy provided an alternative for a time. But when Harris moved on, it undermined his appeal — at least among Democrats.
“There were some swing Democratic voters who just thought Biden was too old, or they didn’t like him, and Harris is a more appealing candidate to those types of people,” said Kyle Condick, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik said it’s possible Biden could have won those voters anyway if he had stayed in the race and had a general push after the Democratic National Convention.
But at this point, Condic said, he wouldn’t be surprised if the third-party vote share in the election is about 2 percent of the electorate, as it was in 2012 and 2020. Before Harris was nominated, political analysts were predicting it would be closer to a 6 percent third-party share in 2016, which some analysts Arguing is doomed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
“For all the talk about third parties in this election, a combination of the most prominent third-party candidates, in addition to the increased favorability of the two major party nominees, means that a market will be short. Third party candidates,” he said.
Kennedy may have more influence as a surrogate for Trump. He could help the former president with certain demographics, such as young people who listen to celebrities like Joe Rogan, who Kennedy praised.
But Trump’s campaign may also be wary of associating itself with Kennedy’s brand: If the brainworm and bear incident weren’t enough, he’s been rejected. A member of his own famous family And now peddles Conspiracy theory Not just about the Covid-19 vaccine, but His father’s killer, 5G cell phone transmission, Fraud in the 2004 electionsAnd more.
“Democrats refrained from Trump and [his running mate JD] Vance is that they’re ‘weird,'” Condick said. “Kennedy doesn’t make them any less weird.”
