As the name implies, global warming is effectively a worldwide problem Every country has to act To prevent greenhouse gas emissions. Any ton of carbon dioxide produced anywhere increases global warming, while any ton less has the opposite effect. This is why the most effective way to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions is through policies that encourage cheaper clean technologies, wherever they come from.
But leading presidential candidates from both major American political parties are increasingly pushing for U.S. development all forms of energy — including oil and natural gas — and defends its own clean tech sector, even at the expense of its allies and its own climate goals.
It’s little wonder that former President Donald Trump, the quintessential skeptic about climate change, repeatedly boasted about his track record in increasing domestic energy production, including fossil fuels, and he has promised to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods such as solar panels if he becomes president again.
But Vice President Kamala Harris also highlighted the America First Energy policy. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 signed by President Joe Biden represents the single largest U.S. investment in combating climate change, with his vice president taking credit for how it expanded oil and gas development.
“I was the tie-breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which opened up new leases for fracking,” Harris said.
It is a fully bipartisan piece A shift away from one-time consensus support for free trade and the open market. But it’s a particularly notable change in tone for Democrats, who once made global, collaborative action on climate change a central issue.
Harris, during his first run for president in 2019, He promised to ban frackingShale is a controversial technique for extracting oil and gas from rock, and one that is largely responsible for turning the United States back into an oil and gas powerhouse.
Biden No new fossil fuel extraction commitments on federal lands and Restore America’s Climate Position on the world stage. Biden brought the United States back into the Paris climate accord shortly after taking office, but has since overseen a massive expansion in oil and gas production and Increase in fossil fuel exports from other countries. Climate change barely came up at the Democratic National Convention last month. Now the US Energy production is at an all-time highAnd the United States produces more oil and gas than any country in history.
Why change? The simple reason is now voters Cares a lot about the economy And much less about the environment. “This is not the climate politics of four years ago or eight years ago,” said Noah Gordonwho leads the climate program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It remains one though A priority for many young DemocratsInflation and rising gasoline prices over the past few years have pushed greenhouse gas concerns to the back burner. And while Democrats have acted on climate change, they haven’t gotten much credit from voters, many of whom aren’t even aware of the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.
“If voters think climate policy is bad for jobs and the economy, it’s a losing issue,” he said Samantha Grosswho heads energy security and climate research at the Brookings Institution, in an email. “So if you care about the climate, the solution has to speak to voters’ economic concerns, like job creation and retention.”
Instead of talking about climate change as its own issue, Democrats have increasingly broken it down into a subset that voters clearly care about, such as insurance rates, HousingEnergy prices, and food security. And when they talk about climate change by name, it’s primarily to highlight how tackling warming can create new economic opportunities. The largest climate investment in U.S. history is called the “Inflation Reduction Act” and speaks to this strategy.
“When we invest in the climate, we create jobs, we lower costs and we invest in families,” Harris said Earlier this year.
The Biden-Harris administration has thus spent the last four years promoting job creation without being too picky about where they come from, including in the fossil fuel sector and using protectionist trade policies to boost domestic energy production.
But this shift in focus has the U.S. deliberately taking some cheaper clean energy options, such as solar panels and cheap EVs made in China, off the table, while extending lifelines to some dirtier sources of energy.
This has a cost to the planet: a slower path to decarbonization for the US, World’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases. And that means more warming and all its untold damage to the world.
Putting jobs first has big political upsides and some environmental downsides
For a long time, climate change was a direct function of economic production. As countries built more cars, roads, buildings, bridges and farms, they burned more coal, oil and natural gas, which produced greenhouse gases that warmed the planet. This is why early industrializing countries like the United States Largest historical emitter of carbon dioxideAnd why unprecedented industrial giant China is now the world’s largest current emitter.
But as energy efficiency increases and clean power takes root, economic output no longer has to be tied to rising greenhouse gases. More than 30 countries (including the US) have decoupled emissions and economic growth, meaning they are generating wealth and prosperity at a higher rate than warming the planet by reducing their relative use of fossil fuels.
And increasingly, many countries are seeing a business opportunity to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Clean technology sectors such as solar power, electric vehicles and batteries have been a major focus in China. contributing $1.6 trillion to its economy And it drove 40 percent of its GDP growth last year alone. China now has 80 percent of the world Solar generating capacityAnd its intense investment in the sector has helped drive a Global solar panel prices plummet.
But as China gains momentum, and so does its government Export-driven growth declines twiceIts cheap products are undermining efforts to build its own clean tech sector in the US. To compete, the United States struck back including duty Up to 100 percent on Chinese EVs, 25 percent on EV batteries and up to 50 percent on solar cells. Laws like the Inflation Reduction Act There are additional tax credits Energy projects that require the use of US-made hardware and grantees buy American products.
These trade barriers on other countries have helped protect US workers. Jobs in the US clean tech sector have grown More than double the rate of aggregate employment. However, they impose a cost on consumers and the overall economy, raising the price of many of the tools needed to curb emissions, including some of the cheapest, most popular EVs, which come from China, off U.S. roads.
All of this is a clear demonstration that the US government is prioritizing domestic jobs and limiting China’s influence ahead of the most effective ways to reduce carbon emissions. And these are efforts that have largely received bipartisan support. Republicans in Congress have even introduced one Border-adjusted carbon tax which would add a fee to imported goods from countries considered to be major greenhouse gas emitters (eg, China).
But “buy American” provisions have also created friction with US allies and trading partners like European Union Those who want to sell their clean technology in the US market. These requirements create more competition for the limited supply of US-made hardware, which sometimes leads to delays and increases the cost of projects. US factories struggle to compete. And tariffs on China are not airtight: Chinese companies Shifting factories for components like batteries in South Korea and Morocco to avoid US regulations.
Such moves may be necessary to build a political coalition to support the power transition, but they make the overall process slower and more expensive, and they are difficult to undo. “Once a tariff is imposed it becomes difficult to reverse it,” Gordon said.
The Biden administration has also shown it is concerned about the political consequences of switching to clean energy too quickly, especially if those actions are seen as contributing to higher prices. They weakened vehicle pollution regulations that were designed to accelerate the transition to EVs. They continue to push for more oil and gas drilling in the United States, It even taps into reserves to lower gasoline pricesAlso time to renew concerns about US energy imports. “We’ve had the largest increase in domestic oil production in history because of an approach that recognizes we can’t rely too much on foreign oil,” Harris said in the debate.
Although the Biden administration has paused approvals for new export terminals for liquefied natural gas, U.S. LNG exports are still poised to double by 2030 — and could grow even more depending on who takes the White House next year.
Globally, greenhouse gas emissions are on the verge of leveling off and may soon begin to decline. But the pace of that drop-off — and America’s influence on it — will determine whether the world meets its climate change goals
The world is falling behind schedule as the US creates trade barriers to move forward.
