On the campaign trail, Donald Trump relished the opportunity to reassure voters that 2022 was flipped. Roe v. Wade Meaning people don’t need to worry about further federal abortion restrictions, since that was all effectively debatable and now up to the states. As election day approaches, Trump emphasized He is “great for women and their reproductive rights” and even he “Do not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances” His flip-flopping worked: Most voters believe That Trump would not be a threat to abortion rights and would not make the issue a priority if elected.
Since winning, Trump and his transition team have aimed to keep abortion out of the news and maintain moderation to avoid losing widespread support. While Trump’s Medicare and Medicaid services and the Food and Drug Administration (Dr. Mehmet Oz And Marty Macarirespectively), his Health and Human Services secretary pick is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is on record support Abortion rights. Trump’s team too Roger Severino declined to be named to a top HHS post, primarily because his team thought his anti-abortion views would be too controversial. (Anti-abortion leaders lobbied heavily on Severino’s behalf.)
Trump tried to curtail reproductive rights on his first day in office: None of his first dozen executive orders were directly related to abortion, though his anti-transgender decree did not invoke the idea that human personhood begins at conception, a core principle. Fetal Personhood” offshoot of the anti-abortion movement. Trump will also be in California on Friday. Skip the opportunity To speak at the March for Life rally in Washington, DC, which he addressed As President in 2020.
But this more evasive period soon gave way to the realities of Congress, litigation, and executive rule.
His administration must address pending abortion rights cases, enact new abortion restrictions, and appoint more judges. (During his first term, Trump appointed one of the nation’s most anti-abortion judges — Matthew Kasmaric.) In the months ahead, Congress sent bills to his desk and the court issued more embryos. Personality rulesTrump’s carefully crafted moderate image on abortion will face mounting pressure. Although he probably doesn’t want to go back into the messy world of abortion politics — a problem he is Not firmly believed – He has to soon.
Anti-abortion techniques
Emerging statements from anti-abortion advocates suggest that most are ready to go easy on the new president, accepting compromises so that Trump can continue to claim that he has not signed any new federal abortion bans. Activists see it in their interest to stay in the president’s good graces and influence policy and judicial nominees where possible.
Letting Trump keep his promise of a federal abortion ban isn’t such a big sacrifice, since it was never likely that congressional lawmakers would be able to pass such a ban without overturning the filibuster. The anti-abortion movement, for its part, hasn’t counted on the GOP to push bills through with simple majorities.
“Quite frankly, unless something really unusual happens in this election, neither party will get the votes in Congress to pass a national law,” Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee, said. told the Associated Press Early October.
Expect more pronounced language games. Steven Aden, General Counsel of Americans United for Life, States told Newsroom in November that her national anti-abortion group would support a federal “dismemberment” bill, a proposed ban on the most common second-trimester abortion procedure, known as Diffusion and Evacuation. It would still technically enable doctors to use procedures like C-sections to terminate subsequent pregnancies — allowing Trump to claim he’s not banning abortion — but those options are less secure. several states Banned D&E since 2017.
Anti-abortion advocates will also push to enforce the Comstock Act, an 1873 federal law that would have banned anything related to abortion from being sent in the mail. was rendered moot by the Comstock Act Ro in the 1970s but was never officially abolished, and now, with Ro Left, many conservatives see it as an ideal vehicle to restrict abortion nationwide, precisely because it would not require the passage of a new law. The Trump administration could enforce it, and Trump could insist that he kept his campaign promise to sign the new federal ban.
In August, after months of dodging questions, Trump told CBS he “not to say in general” Use the Comstock Act to restrict access to abortion drugs. But many people in his orbit, along with his vice presidentThe record urges the opposite, and it’s unclear whether Trump’s justice department does Biden will explain the era That mailing abortion pills is not a violation of the law. Trump’s DOJ pick, Pam Bondi, did not specify what she would do, but said at her confirmation hearing that she He will not allow personal opposition Abortion affected his actions as US Attorney General.
Other items high on the anti-abortion wish list that could allow Trump to maintain a relative pretense of moderation include a new effort to defund Planned Parenthood, the nation’s largest reproductive health network. Although Planned Parenthood is popular, Trump may say federal funding is at odds with states’ views on abortion policy decisions. Trump said JD Vance on the campaign trail Will help Planned Parenthood pay, And in his first term, Trump implemented a “domestic gag rule” on US-based family planning programs, eliminating funding for abortion services or even any programs that provide abortion information. This led to 400 Planned Parenthood clinics nationwide losing federal funding. There was a law to collect money from the organization Recently reintroduced in Congress.
Activists also want to roll back old restrictions on medication abortions—like the ban on telehealth—which would make the drugs harder for people to access but enable the president to claim he’s not actually banning them. Anti-abortion groups plan to pressure the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to study the potential environmental damage caused by flushing abortion pills down the toilet, a move they hope could lead to new restrictions on how the drugs are used. . Conducted and disposed of legally. Activists also hope RFK Jr.’s general Doubts about FDA drug approval Helping them win support for a federal study, since they argue the agency made a mistake in approving mifepristone 25 years ago.
A thorny decision awaits
A less polarizing course for the Trump administration would be to simply undo the policies of the Biden administration, reverting to more general GOP restrictions like the “global gag rule,” which blocks foreign organizations receiving U.S. aid from providing abortion information or referrals. Every Republican president since Ronald Reagan has implemented this policy, including Trump in 2017. Some of the things Trump could withdraw include Biden’s expanded abortion access For military veteransAnd A Biden-era Medicaid waiver which helps patients travel out of state for care. “They don’t have to advance pro-life federal legislation,” said Eric Kniffin, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center. told The Hill Recently “they just need to stop that overreaches [the Biden] Administration is taking.”
But even if Trump wants to wage a more high-octane political battle over abortion, he likely won’t avoid the battle brewing over IVF, which now accounts for nearly 2 percent Born in the United States.
Proponents of personhood argue that discarding unused embryos during IVF is tantamount to abortion, and pushing for new restrictions could significantly affect millions of Americans struggling with infertility. While Louisiana remains the only state outright prohibition Destruction of embryos, workers pressing More states to follow his lead. Federal courts can also be needs to be addressed Whether fetuses have constitutional rights — a legal battle that could reshape reproductive law.
A Post-Election Memo, SBA Pro-Life AmericaA major anti-abortion advocacy group, insisted that the Republican Party must focus on “the unalienable right to life for the unborn child under the 14th Amendment.” That suggests the GOP may be pressured to more aggressively embrace the far-right goal of fetal personhood — potentially affecting its stance on issues like IVF as well.
A number of pending cases will force Trump to take a clearer stance on abortion access than he might otherwise prefer.
One concerns the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA) which requires hospitals to provide emergency abortion care. While Trump campaigned on supporting emergency abortions, he has yet to clarify his position on the law. Project 2025, the controversial GOP blueprint from which Trump has distanced himself, calls for Biden’s withdrawal EMTALA guidelines and ending federal investigations into abortion denials. The Trump administration may also dismiss ongoing EMTALA cases Texas And Idaho Where the federal government is arguing to preserve abortion rights.
Another lawsuit is a new lawsuit targeting mifepristone filed by three Republican state attorneys general. The lawsuit notably argues that the FDA violated the Comstock Act by allowing abortion pills to be mailed. Last week, Kacsmaryk said the case can proceed. In previous federal efforts to challenge the legality of mifepristone, the Biden administration defended access to the drug. It’s unclear what Trump’s DOJ will decide.
Beyond these legal challenges, Congress could also force Trump’s hand. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson Some anti-abortion measures are limited Should the previous spending bill pass, it would be easier for Republicans to push forward the restrictions this year. He and GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune Planning to talk at the March for Life rally later this week, and Thune has already pledged Hold a vote on legislation which would subsequently introduce new criminal penalties for doctors based on myths about abortion – a move seen by abortion rights advocates as As part of a larger plan Criminalize the procedure.
For now, abortion rights groups don’t plan to compromise
While some Republican lawmakers besides Trump have indicated openness to compromise on abortion exceptions, contraception and IVF, there is little indication so far that abortion rights groups will seek such an opportunity. “We have no interest in narrowing our vision,” Kimberly Inez McGuire, executive director of Unite for Reproductive and Gender Equity, told me late last year. Even working with Republicans on limited protections could undercut the GOP narrative of extremism — a message advocacy groups see as critical to winning Democrats in 2026 and 2028.
In general, polls show voters increased even More helpful of Abortion rights They were before the Supreme Court reversed Ro.about 80 percent Protecting contraceptive access is “deeply important” to voters, and 72 percent of Republican voters had a favorable view of birth control. IVF is more popular: 86 percent are American I think it should be valid. including 78 percent Self-identified “pro-life advocate” and 83 percent evangelical Christian.
These overwhelming public approval numbers show why Trump’s strategy of distancing himself from abortion restrictions resonated during the campaign. But governance requires real decisions – and unlike campaign rhetoric, they cannot be reversed so easily.
