Is there a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas soon? It depends on who you ask. Since last week, more than one the news Report The talks between the two sides indicated that there has been a breakthrough. but other Report indicates that there are still major gaps to be overcome, and the exact nature of the conditions necessary to reach a cease-fire and hostage agreement remains unclear.
If one does emerge, one person will try to take credit for it: Donald J. Trump.
On Monday, the president-elect held a press conference in which he echoed comments from his account posted on Truth Social that threatened “all hell to pay” if the hostages in Gaza are not released when he takes office.
“I will be very available on January 20,” he said. “And we’ll see. You know, I gave a warning that if these hostages don’t come home by that date, all hell will break loose.”
Since the conflict began on October 7, 2023, a comprehensive hostage agreement and cease-fire has remained elusive (although a pause in the Israeli offensive in November 2023 allowed the release of 50 hostages taken on October 7 in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and more aid to Gaza). This week, however, a senior Palestinian negotiator told the BBC that talks were at a “decisive and final stage” and that both Israeli and American officials were reportedly traveling to Doha, Qatar, to attend ceasefire talks.
Reporting by The Wall Street Journal And NBC suggesting that Trump’s decision to include himself in the talks helped push Hamas toward a deal. To understand the impact of a Trump presidency on the future of negotiations and conflict, Today, explained Steven A. sat down with Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Talked to Cook Today, explained Co-host Noel King discusses the prospect of a cease-fire, Trump’s track record on Israel, and how Trump might approach Israel and the ongoing conflict in his second term. Below is a portion of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, explained on Apple Podcasts, Spotifyor Wherever you get your podcast.
Noel King
How did Trump interact with Israel during his first term?
Steven Cook
Well, Trump has been a very pro-Israel president, which is saying something because most presidents are actually very pro-Israel. He moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. [a change] That has been law since the late 1990s but no president has acted on it. He recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and turned a blind eye to the Israeli government’s worst excesses in West Bank settlements.
Noel King
Donald Trump has always been beset by two competing narratives. One of them is that things in the Middle East are very difficult to do, to the extent that, often, nothing gets done. And the other is “Donald Trump just gets things done.” Was it difficult to do to Israel what Trump did in his first term?
Steven Cook
Well, no, because he basically did it by presidential fiat.
First, as I said, moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was a law that was passed by Congress, I believe, in 1998. So it was just the president saying, “I’m going to move the embassy to Jerusalem.” Previous presidents have said, “For national security reasons, we don’t want to prejudge the outcome of final status negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. So, we’re going to keep things that way, despite the right to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.”
Trump said, “No, I’m going to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.” He got nothing from the Israelis for it, which was probably a diplomatic blunder, but it was really something he was doing to appease his evangelical base, which [wants] Very, very strong US support for Israel and maximalist Israeli policies.
Noel King
The world has arguably become more complicated since Donald Trump’s last term. Russia, Ukraine, October 7th Every nation was drawn after October 7th. Do you think that Trump and his foreign policy team recognize that this time things could be more complicated?
Steven Cook
You want to think that they do, that they communicate with reality. The few statements Trump has made about the region suggest he thinks he’s about to pick up where he left off when he unceremoniously left office in January 2021. He talks about expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia This has been greatly complicated by the war in the Gaza Strip. Saudi prices for normalization have risen sharply since the start of the war. And now the Saudis are demanding a true two-state solution, something the Israelis aren’t even ready to entertain right now.
The president also thinks he can only say there needs to be a hostage deal and there will be a cease-fire and hostage deal in the Gaza Strip. I think he fails to acknowledge, at least in his statements, how dramatically different the region is from when he left office.
Noel King
Do any of his appointments reflect major changes in the region?
Steven Cook
The National Security Advisor-designate, Congressman Mike Walz, is a very pro-Israel figure. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), the nominee for Secretary of State, also has very strong pro-Israel credentials. And of course, her [designate for] The permanent representative to the United Nations is Elise Stefanik, the New York congresswoman who made a name for herself for being scathingly pro-Israel with elite college presidents at that famous hearing after the October 7 attacks. And then there’s Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, who has been named as the US ambassador to Israel, who is a very, very pro-Israel figure. He does not recognize the Palestinian people as a nation. And he doesn’t consider Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal.
This is an administration that is very pro-Israel. But of course, these people can only be implementers, bit players in whatever President Trump decides to do. And based on his first term, what he decides to do is what his gut tells him. He sees himself as a great negotiator, and I think at least on the two-state solution and Iran’s nuclear program, the self-perception of being a great negotiator and deal maker could create tension with an Israeli government that has other views on those two issues. .
Noel King
What do we really know about what Trump and Netanyahu think about each other?
Steven Cook
Well, I read Jared Kushner’s memoir of his time in the White House so no one else would. It was really a terrific read. But one of the things I learned is that with Netanyahu and Trump, there was a very significant trust deficit between the two leaders.
Trump was always concerned that Netanyahu was going to double-down on him, and in a series of Israeli elections while Trump was in office, Trump actually favored Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff who led the opposition. the party
Netanyahu has always been concerned that Trump would act against Israel’s interests, such as sitting down and negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran. Add to that the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu called President Joe Biden relatively quickly when his election was confirmed in November 2020, [which] Angry President Trump.
So ever since Trump’s re-election Netanyahu has made a real effort to call Trump, to calm Trump down, what have you. But I still think the trust deficit remains because Trump has a different view than the Israelis on issues like the two-state solution and Iran’s nuclear program.
Noel King
It’s Tuesday afternoon as we speak and we’re hearing a ceasefire may be near. When do you think we will get a ceasefire?
Steven Cook
I’m hearing columnists and others say that a ceasefire is imminent at least as early as February 2024. And all I know is Hamas and its people [former Hamas leader] Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by the Israelis a few months earlier, was not interested in a cease-fire, believing that Hamas was winning the conflict because there was an all-out war, and even though the Israelis were inflicting heavy casualties on Hamas cadres in Gaza. Strip, Israel’s international legitimacy was suffering greatly as a result of the conflict. And for Yahya Sinwar and others in Hamas, it was to undermine Israel’s legitimacy in the international order.
And then, of course, on the Israeli side, the settlers didn’t want a ceasefire. They want the quote-unquote “total destruction” of Hamas to clear the way for Israeli resettlement in the Gaza Strip. So there was no real incentive for a truce.
Things have changed significantly since then, however. The Israelis inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah, Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon, to the point that Hezbollah was forced to cut a deal with Israel and there is now a ceasefire in Lebanon. This leaves Hamas alone, meaning Hamas now has to make a decision: Will it save its remnants by cutting a deal with the Israelis, or will it fight on, believing that continued fighting will damage Israel internationally and that they are going to play the long game?
Some of the indications coming from Israeli ministers and others, Egyptians and others, are that Hamas has dropped a major sticking point, which is that they have demanded that all Israeli forces leave the Gaza Strip. so as to pave the way for a cease-fire and exchange of hostages.
Noel King
There are a million reasons to call for a ceasefire, not the least of which is the humanitarian catastrophe that has unfolded over a year. But in the blunt calculus of politics, if we get a ceasefire before the inauguration of Donald Trump, who will win? Trump? Biden? Will they fight over it?
Steven Cook
Of course Trump will claim it. The Biden team will claim it, too. They have been doing this since the beginning. I would say that credit goes to the IDF — the IDF crushed Hezbollah, something that no Western analyst believes they could do without the complete destruction of Israeli population centers. And so once Hezbollah made the case for a cease-fire, Hamas was truly alone and without recourse.
Of course Donald Trump would claim it. That’s why he’s been posting on Truth Social and said in his first press conference that the hostages at his inauguration will have hell to pay if they don’t return them. He’s basically setting it up so he takes credit for it.
