Its early days rebellion Against the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad – which came as a surprise End this weekend As a rebel force after 13 long years of civil war Entered the capital Damascus and Assad fled into exile—defined by two famous pieces of graffiti.
The first was written in early 2011 by a group of teenage boys on the wall of a school in the city of Daraa. Inspired by the Arab Spring protests that seemingly overthrew the old order of long-time dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, they wrote“You’re next, doctor,” referring to Assad, who trained and worked as an ophthalmologist in London in his early years before returning to take over the family business of ruling Syria with an iron fist. The boys were then arrested and tortured Government security forcesAn event credited by many with sparking the mass protest movement against Assad.
The message turned out to be overly optimistic: Assad did not flee and he did not compromise, choosing instead to suppress the rebellion by force, leading to a civil war that would kill many. Half a million people And millions more displaced.
The second graffiti message was a Slogan scrawled By pro-government militias across the country early in the uprising: “Assad or we will burn the country.” The phrase indicates the regime’s utter unwillingness to compromise with its enemies and the lengths to which it will go to stay in power.
Last week, even as rebels captured the ancient city of Aleppo on Nov. 30 and began marching south along the highway to Damascus, the fall of the Syrian regime — a family that has held power ever since — still seemed remote. Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, staged a coup 54 years ago and was willing to go that far. Use of chemical weapons It would collapse within days to preserve that power over its own people and reduce its own cities to rubble.
But that’s exactly what happened: As the rebels advanced, there were numerous reports of government forces Abandon their positions And Discarding their uniforms. This is what the Russian government said Gave shelter to Assad and his family. US officials say they have not confirmed that Assad is in Russia, but there is no reason to doubt it.
Today, footage from Damascus shows that such celebrations were not seen from above The first day of the Arab Spring. Videos on social media show people incarcerated, including small children and people Those who have been imprisoned for decadesBeing released from the regime’s notorious prisons. The events of the past week have given them hope At least something More than 6 million Syrians who have fled the country — shaping the world Largest refugee population – so that they can return home.
View from Washington
The White House Primarily distance From the events in Syria itself after the fall of Aleppo. But on Sunday, President Joe Biden speech The White House called Assad’s fall a “fundamental act of justice” and a “moment of historic opportunity.” His statement also linked the incident to US support for Ukraine and Israel in the fight against Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, the main backers of the Assad regime.
Initial caution in embracing the offensive wholeheartedly was due to the fact that the main group leading the opposition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is a former al-Qaeda affiliate that still designates one. American terrorist organization. In a background call on Sunday, a senior US administration official said the US “wants to engage with [HTS] appropriately and with US interests in mind,” but would not comment on whether it would reconsider the group’s terrorist designation.
Questions are being raised about the fate of Assad’s chemical weapons and the fate of Syria’s religious minorities, including Kurdish forces allied with the American military to fight ISIS. Ostensibly driving this point home, US Dozens of planes attacked On Sunday, US Central Command targeted ISIS in Syria as part of what it called “an effort to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to regroup in central Syria.” For American policymakers, the scenes in Damascus may rekindle memories of Iraq and Libya — countries that toppled longtime dictators, only to see their countries engulfed by sectarian violence and terrorism.
A key difference this time around is that Assad was toppled mostly through a homegrown uprising rather than a US-led military intervention. The United States was not entirely absent from the scene. The American military attacked Iranian militia targets Dec. 3 in Syria, though the Pentagon was quick to emphasize that it was in response to threats by American forces, not in support of rebels.
Rebel forces also include a controversial Turkish proxy group known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), and it appears likely. Ukraine’s intelligence agencies may have had some role Russian military allies to support counterattacks. It is noteworthy that fighters are also entering Damascus Includes a new rebel group from southern Syria Dominated by veterans of the Free Syrian Army, which has been backed by the United States and other Western powers for years.
But so far, as Biden suggests, it appears that international actors’ biggest role in aiding the rebels has been indirect and outside of Syria: after 14 months of war with Israel, Assad’s ally Hezbollah is not. Intervening on behalf of Assad, as has happened in the past; With Ukraine’s major military assets, neither was Russia.
The new rulers
Attention will now turn to Syria’s new rulers and how they will rule. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani said all the right things. A call to his supporters To avoid reprisals against regime supporters. For now, he is stepping down until Assad-appointed Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali An interim government was formed.
On Saturday, hours before Assad’s ouster, Vox asked Moaz Mustafa, executive director of the US-based Syrian Emergency Task Force, what an interim government might look like. He suggested that UN Resolution 2254Adopted in 2015 but never implemented, it could provide a road map: It calls for a Syrian-led political process, supported by the United Nations, to lead to new elections within 18 months.
In the coming months, we’ll see if Zolani, the former al-Qaeda fighter worth $10 million from the US government, really is. A pragmatic pluralist he now saysAnd the guesswork is whether he is able to hold together an ethnically and religiously diverse country, riddled with weapons, various armed groups and battered by decades of dictatorship and war.
A big question mark is how the new rulers in Damascus will deal with the Kurdish-ruled northeastern corner of the country, especially if the incoming Trump administration follows through on plans to withdraw U.S. troops from the region in its last term. Already done Regarding reports in recent days Clashes between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed SNA. Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social That the attack on Syria was “not our war” and America had “nothing to do with it.”
Beyond these questions, Assad’s fall should serve as a reminder of some important facts. One, governments and analysts are extremely poor in assessing the strength of non-state militant groups like HTS, their ability to carry out large-scale attacks, and the ability of governments to resist.
Two, authoritarian regimes are much weaker than they often appear. Recently released Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza recently told Vox, referring to his own country, “In this repressive, tyrannical regime, you don’t know what’s going on under the surface … There may be problems for the regime, but no one is aware of them until They come out of the opening and suddenly everything collapses.”
The world over the last few years All but decided that Asad The civil war was won. Regional governments that had spent years trying to oust him were welcoming him back into the fold, while the United States moved on to other priorities. If the past few days have taught us anything, it’s that regimes like Assad’s can often be more fragile than they appear from the outside, and it takes a strong shock to topple them.
For all the very legitimate concerns and caution about what lies ahead for Syria, this should be some reason for optimism.
