He was injured in an attack on Iraq’s al-Assad air base on Monday At least five are members of the US military and two are contractors. The attack may have been an isolated incident, but there are signs that it could be part of a wider escalation in the region.
The strike comes at a time of rising violence in the Middle East. Israel is still continuing its war in Gaza and is believed to have recently killed the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyahand Hezbollah military commanders Fuad Shukar in Iran and Lebanon respectively. Iran, which supports both Hamas and Hezbollah, blamed Israel for the attack and is expected to retaliate heavily. Now, uncertainty over how Iran will respond raises the possibility of wider conflict in the region.
It is unclear whether Iran has anything to do with the attack on al-Assad, and no group has yet claimed responsibility. Iran-allied groups operating in Iraq, such as prominent Iraqi militias Kataib Hezbollah. But if one of these groups was behind the strike, that doesn’t mean it was ordered by Iran; Iran’s allies in Iraq sometimes operate without clear instructions.
But whatever the calculations behind Monday’s attacks, they are a reminder of how easily the Israel-Gaza conflict can escalate — and spiral out of control.
Israel and Iran have turned up the heat in recent weeks
Although Iraq’s president, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, announced in January that he aimed to expel US troops from his country, still roughly 2,500 American troops in Iraq, who are part of the mission to fight the Islamic State.
US forces have recently targeted militias known as Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs).), that they accused of plotting to launch drones to threaten US installations
The PMFs are often referred to as Iran-backed – and they do have Iranian support, although the story is a bit more complicated than that. Although Iran finances and equips militia groups in Iraq, they are not as closely aligned with the Islamic Republic as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and have their own agendas.
and the PMFs are Technically part of the Iraqi military. They were critical to the fight against ISIS, especially early in the conflict, viz A recent report from the RAND Corporation notes. However, they carried out attacks that furthered Iran’s foreign policy goals – defeating Israel and driving the Americans out of the Middle East. For example, these groups have been launching rocket attacks against US installations since around 2020, the US Assassination of Qassem SoleimaniA respected leader of Iran’s military, Something happened in early 2019 though.
So Monday’s attack could be seen as a tit-for-tat response to the US attack last week, which Killed four people, this may be part of Iran’s response to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr. This is especially true of the fact that Haniyeh was killed inside Iran, a fact that has embarrassed the country and its security forces. And although Iran has blamed Israel for the attack, the country’s leaders see the United States as complicit because of the strength of the US-Israel alliance.
The question is whether Iran can respond in a way that would persuade Israel and the United States to step back rather than continue escalating. Colin Clarkea senior research fellow at the Sofan Center, told Vox.
“I think that’s the challenge for the Iranians, trying to thread the needle where they respond in a way that doesn’t come off as completely impotent and expose them as weak, but they don’t want to go overboard.”
A too strong response could provoke further violence from Israel and potentially the United States, putting the world at risk of a major war. But it is increasingly difficult to judge the ability of Israel and the United States to contain Iran’s response. Ali Wayzdirector of the International Crisis Group’s Iran program told Vox.
“I think that’s where the risk lies primarily, because [Iran feels that] Without inflicting pain, there is no gain in deterrence, and Israel is not a country that just absorbs pain and doesn’t respond — even by twisting the US arm,” Vaez said.
So what will happen in the Middle East?
Fears of a region-wide war began with Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel and continue as regional powers engage in what is known as “rocket diplomacy”; Basically, a carefully calibrated attack means sending a message.
In the case of air base attacks, Vaez said the message could be that “if [the US] After Iran retaliated for Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Israel failed to deter the United States, which will now be caught in the crossfire.”
How Iran and its allies respond to the recent killings will help determine how large the conflict grows and whether the balance of violence remains in places like Lebanon — where Israel and Hezbollah trade rocket fire along Lebanon’s southern border and where Israeli jets are built. . Sonic boom over Beirut – broken.
Any Iranian response to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr would likely depend on Iran’s regional partners overwhelming Israel’s Iron Dome defense system with rocket fire, allowing at least some munitions to penetrate and cause some real damage – even casualties.
“Let’s face it, they kill a large number of Israeli civilians in a missile or rocket attack, which is possible, if Iron Dome is overwhelmed and malfunctions,” Clark said. “If they raise too much, the Israelis will really continue, especially Netanyahu, to push the United States to get more involved, which is not a good scenario for the Iranians.”
And, according to Voyager, that’s a real possibility with “a more sophisticated, multi-layered strategy on Iran’s part.”
In that scenario, attacks and counterattacks will continue — and the death toll will rise in Iran, among its allies, and possibly in Israel.
