Are we heading towards a legitimacy crisis in this election?
The survey shows a Tight race Between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the 2024 election, like 2020, could be decided by narrow margins in a few battleground states. And like last time, polls suggest that a large proportion of Republican voters seem ready to reject the results if Trump comes up short.
If Trump loses, nearly a quarter of Republicans say they think he should do whatever it takes to make sure he becomes president, according to a September PRRI Poll.
That could include resorting to violence: Among Republicans who don’t believe a Biden win in 2020 is legitimate, nearly one-third say a August vote by the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University that they expected “much” or “significant” political violence after the November elections. This does not mean that violence is inevitable — but that it follows Fatal January 6, 2021, RebellionThe possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand.
These beliefs may stem from the fact that, among Republicans, Trump has proven to be the most trusted source of information about election results, above local and national news outlets. in a Poll from Associated Press/NORC/USAFacts Earlier this month, more than 60 percent of Republicans said they believed Trump himself was the best place to get information about the results.
The problem with all of this, of course, is that the former president has been very consistent in falsely claiming to have won the 2020 election and casting doubt on the legitimacy of US elections ahead of the 2024 contest.
During his first debate against Harris, Trump again refused to admit that he lost the 2020 election, walking back comments he made in a podcast interview earlier this month where he said he “Lost by a jerk” and notwithstanding faces criminal charges In order to pressure election officials to overturn the 2020 results, Trump has not indicated that he will accept the results in November.
“We have to make good choices. Our elections are bad,” he said Debate time.
Trump did too threat To prosecute “those who rigged” the 2024 election and give them long prison terms if he wins.
His running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), also said in a podcast appearance this month that he Results will not be certified If he was in Congress in 2020 elections. “I would ask states to submit alternative slates of voters and let the nation debate,” he said.
Trump’s long-standing insistence that he won in 2020 appears to be paying off over time, with several surveys measuring greater purchase of his lies about the election by voters today than in the past. A December Washington Post/University of Maryland poll It found that 36 percent of US adults did not believe Biden was legitimately elected, compared to 29 percent two years ago. And in a Pew Research survey conducted earlier this month, 27 percent of US adults He said Trump did nothing wrong in trying to overturn the election results. up from 23 percent in April.
The prevalence of Trump’s lies about the election also appears to have contributed to Republicans’ fears about the future of democracy, which polls seem more intense than Democrats. Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say that American democracy is not working and that it will end in their lifetime. March Quinnipiac Poll.
Overall, the polls suggest that many Americans believe there is a real possibility that Trump will not accept the election results. A August ABC/Ipsos poll It found that only 29 percent said they believed Trump was prepared to accept the results regardless.
Add it all up and the picture is troubling: If the election is close — and all indications are that it will be — we seem set up for a real legitimacy crisis if Trump loses. This is another indication of the dangerous state of US democracy and how Trump is bending American politics to his will.
Can the center hold?
Trump’s words and actions — and the beliefs of his followers — stand in stark contrast to those of Harris and his supporters.
Harris in his Democratic National Convention speech last month committed to For a peaceful transfer of power. Democrats show the same promise: The August ABC/Ipsos poll It found that 92 percent were ready to accept the outcome, regardless of the outcome, compared to 76 percent of Trump supporters.
That said, recent Report Trump’s allies could question the validity of the results for some Democratic voters, sure to lay the groundwork for undermining the election results in key states if he wins.
In Georgia, for example, state election board members associated with the Trump-linked “Stop the Steal” campaign signed off on new rules that allow local election officials to conduct “reasonable investigations” into election irregularities — without specifying what a “reasonable” investigation might be. . That could lead to potentially frivolous challenges that could complicate certification in what is expected to be a close election in Georgia.
Moreover, the polarization of the country means that a Trump victory, especially a narrow one, will likely be the kind of mass peaceful protests the country saw in the wake of the 2016 election (while, of course, accepting the results and protesting them peacefully) storming the Capitol and attempting to stop a peaceful transfer of power. completely different from).
As we approach Election Day, it’s good to take a step back and assess the state of American democracy in 2024. One of the two major party candidates refused to accept his defeat four years ago and shows every sign of doing the same thing again this year if he loses. His supporters are also with him.
The election that looms so close raises the risk of a real crisis, but it’s also a reminder of how, because of Trump, what was once unimaginable is now real.
