Over the past few months, events in the Middle East have been providing the world with a crash course in growth management – or, more accurately, the failure to manage growth.
Despite the ongoing carnage in Gaza, the region is not in the state of all-out war that many feared since last October. But it has moved closer to that state over the past few days, with dramatic and violent events including Tuesday night’s killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Haniyeh’s killing came hours after an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Lebanon. The attack was in retaliation for a Hezbollah rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday that killed 12 children.
There’s more: Tuesday, US went on strike against Iran-backed military groups in Iraq, following several recent attacks on US forces in the region. Such tit-for-tat strikes between Iran-backed militants and regional U.S. forces were common in the months after October 7, but almost none have occurred since early 2024. It raises concerns that the latest outbreak of violence could mark a troubling return. A period of almost open conflict between the United States and Iranian proxies. In recent days, Israel has also been seen running it Airstrikes in Yemen For the first time, a July 19 response to a drone strike by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen that killed one person in Tel Aviv.
Just how high is the risk? Haaretz reports That earlier this month, the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, conducted a war game that began with “a mysterious assassination in Tehran that was attributed to Israel.” The game ended, ominously, with US airstrikes on Iran and an all-out regional war.
Such games are meant to help policymakers map out possible scenarios without predicting the future. And surprising as it may seem to be days of strikes and counterstrikes in a region where all the actors — Israel, Iran, Hezbollah and the US — are still likely trying to keep it at a manageable level.
“This is the ultimate paradox. We’re getting closer to a war, but war is still impossible because nobody wants it,” Bilal Saab, a former Defense Department official and Middle East analyst, told Vox.
But throughout history there have been many wars that started without anyone actively wishing for it. The paradox is that while Israel and Iran do not want war, their actions are only creating one possibility.
Kill the negotiator
Haniyeh, 62, has been a member of Hamas since its founding in the 1980s and served as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority following Hamas’ victory in the 2006 Palestinian elections. Haniyeh left Gaza in 2019 and originally lived in Doha, the capital of Qatar. He served as the group’s public face and international representative but had little day-to-day control over its operations in Gaza, which were overseen by Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader within the enclave. Haniyeh’s three children and several of her grandchildren have already reportedly been killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza.
Given his distance from the front lines in Gaza, Haniyeh’s assassination may have had little impact on the conduct of Hamas’s war with Israel. This is, almost certainly, a major blow to the ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, which a US official last week described as “The final stage“
Haniyeh was far from a “moderate” in any reasonable sense of the word, but according to some reports, he led Hamas. A strong advocate for a ceasefire. On Wednesday, the prime minister of Qatar, where the group has political leadership and has acted as a mediator in the talks, Tweet“[H]Can mediation succeed when one side kills the other side’s negotiator?”
If Haniyeh’s killing puts a cease-fire out of reach once again, it is dire news for the people of Gaza, where the war is ongoing and where More than 39,000 people According to Gaza’s health ministry, 7 have already been killed following Hamas attacks on Israel. It also increases the risk of conflict spillover.
Hezbollah has been firing rockets and drones against northern Israel, and Israel has responded in kind since the start of the war. While the heavily armed militant group likely wants to avoid another all-out war with Israel – the last time it suffered significant losses in 2006 – it will not stop attacks as long as the war continues without losing credibility in Gaza. Israel’s adversary.
This almost certainly means more such incidents Killed 12 children Saturday in a Druze village in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. (Hezbollah denied responsibility but acknowledged several rocket attacks in northern Israel that day.)
Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Vox, “With no ceasefire in Gaza, the northern border is getting hotter by the day. “And Iran and the Houthis and others are getting more directly involved in the war. The situation is becoming more difficult to manage.”
And while Hezbollah’s retaliation may make sense, the real question is what Iran will do after Israel infiltrates its defenses and kills a high-profile ally under its protection.
How will Iran respond?
“It seems very likely to me that Hezbollah will have to take some kind of additional step,” Jonathan Lord, former Pentagon official director of the Center for a New American Security’s Middle East security program, told Vox. “And since Israel attacked Haniyeh inside Tehran, Iran will probably have to take some kind of action to restore confidence in their national sovereignty.”
Israel is believed to exist carried out several murders On Iranian soil in recent years, mainly those involved in Iran’s nuclear program, although the Israeli government almost never publicly acknowledges these actions and did not do so in this case. However, the assassination of a prominent official like Haniyeh and his presence in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president raises the profile of the incident and puts pressure on Iran to respond. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge, saying, “We consider it our duty to avenge him“
In April, an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria, killed a senior Iranian general at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Tehran. Responded by launching Hundreds of missiles and drones in Israel. It was unprecedented — Iran usually attacks Israel directly rather than through proxy groups — but also appears to have been deliberately calibrated to avoid escalation. Where Iran is Hypersonic Missile In its arsenal, it is used Slow weapon, most of which were intercepted. Only one Israeli civilian was seriously injured.
The New York Times Wednesday report That Khamenei has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel again directly, but the escalation pattern is one that must be raised first.
Israel may not be the only target of Iranian retaliation. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Wednesday That Haniyeh’s murder was “something we didn’t know about or be involved in.” That’s probably true, but the Iranians aren’t buying it. In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iran’s representative condemned Israel as well as the United States. writing“This work could not have occurred without US approval and intelligence assistance.”
Ali Vaiz, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project, told Vox that Iran’s response would likely be “Axis-wide retaliation against the United States and Israel.” (“Axis of resistance” is the umbrella term for a network of Iranian-backed proxies that includes Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and several militias in Syria and Iraq.) “This means coordinated, simultaneous attacks, which are, of course, much more dangerous and much more difficult to contain. ,” Vaez added.
This means that whatever form Iran’s retaliation takes, the United States and its troops and interests in the region could be on the receiving end of it.
The crisis is a test by fire for Iran’s new president, who is literally in his first week on the job. Massoud Pezeshkian’s swearing-in was accompanied by “Death of America“And in addition to Hanyah – attended by representatives of the Houthis, Hezbollah and other axes of resistance groups. But Pezeshkian is considered more moderate than his predecessor Ibrahim Raisi, who was killed in a plane crash in May. It is hoped that Pezeshkian is more open to talks with the U.S. may be exposed.
“This new president came into office, I believe, with the blessing of a supreme leader, to test the waters again about coming to some sort of negotiated settlement with the United States,” Nasser said. President Joe Biden takes office in 2021 A pledge to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, which was negotiated under Barack Obama in 2015 before being abandoned by Donald Trump in 2018.
The Iranians have been moving forward with their nuclear program in recent weeks, according to Statements by US officials. While Iran and the United States have managed to defuse their relationship in the past — even with militias and the U.S. military holding nuclear talks amid flare-ups — depending on what form Iran’s retaliation takes, that may prove impossible this time around.
Closer to Israel, the US is likely to be wary of further tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, arguably the world’s most powerful non-state military. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on tuesday That he doesn’t see full-scale war as “inevitable,” but if it starts, “we will help Israel defend itself.”
Given all these developments, one might reasonably ask what kind of “escalation” might still occur in the short term of an all-out regional conflict. Israel and Hezbollah are not yet fighting on the ground. There is still no permanent ceasefire between Israel and Iran. US troops are not yet directly involved in the fighting, beyond conducting periodic airstrikes and occasional fire from militants.
Still, as the guard weakens, the situation becomes more intense and dangerous. But this is the Middle East – things can always get worse.
