The last time Joe Biden and Donald Trump debated, the country and the world were in an uproar.
The coronavirus pandemic was raging, the first vaccines were still months away from rolling out, and Trump had just recovered from a Covid infection (which he may have when he first debated Biden).
The national economy was slowly recovering from the Covid-19 recession. The public mood was delicate, as the nation emerged from a summer of anger and protests in response to the police killing of George Floyd. Anti-shutdown protests are ongoing across the country. Wearing masks was the culture war. Attempts to interfere in Chinese and Russian foreign elections were a major news story, and the country was preparing for its first national elections managed by Primarily by mail-in ballotExamining public trust and electoral infrastructure.
To remind us how much the first Biden-Trump debate of the 2024 election has changed, it might be helpful to look back at the 2020 debates, as I saw them, to see how they’ve aged, the biggest difference today, what we missed then. To see, and see if we can learn any lessons from the match-ups, one in late September and one in October 2020.
In short, it was a very different world. There was a lot we didn’t see coming: We weren’t prepared for the pandemic for years. We don’t expect an inflationary spike that we haven’t seen in a generation. Little mention was made, however, of the right to abortion Roe v. Wade was on the verge of striking. And, after all, we didn’t anticipate Trump’s attempt to steal the election culminating in the January 6 uprising.
What emerges from looking at the debates is a picture of uncertainty – how little we knew then and how little we know now.
Moment 1: Trump calls 2020 election rigged and vows not to accept results
This exchange at the end of the first debate is perhaps the most overlooked and telling moment of any debate that year. Moderator Chris Wallace asked about the integrity of the election and what each candidate would do to “reassure the American people that the next president will be the legitimate winner” of the election.
He began by questioning Biden, who defends the integrity of in-person and mail-in voting, vowing to accept the outcome of the election — win or lose — and then knocking Trump:
“But by the way, if indeed [Trump] Said he wasn’t sure what he would take. Well, let me tell you something, it doesn’t matter, because if we get the vote, it’s all over. he will go He cannot stay in power. It won’t happen.”
We now know what happens next: Trump spends the rest of the campaign sowing doubt, declaring victory on election night, claiming the election was stolen, and then spending the next few months trying to overturn the election results—culminating in the January 6 uprising.
Trump gave some clear warning signs in the September debate. He claimed that he was not given a fair presidential transition in 2016 and 2017. He questioned the credibility of mail-in ballots, repeating conspiracy theories about missing, lost and fraudulent ballots. He declared “there’s going to be fraud like you’ve never seen” and “this is a rigged election.”
He then refused to say whether he would accept the election results or not. “If it’s a fair election I’m 100 per cent on board. But if I see thousands of ballots being rigged, I can’t go along with that.”
No one else seems to be batting an eye. Wallace, the moderator, tried to follow up earlier in the exchange to verify the veracity of Trump’s claims about mail-in ballots and voter fraud, but failed to press Trump on what he planned to do. Wallace instead seems to be thinking of the situation in the 2000 presidential election, in which the Supreme Court essentially decided the winner. He asked Trump and Biden whether the courts would settle election disputes.
Meanwhile, Biden dismissed Trump’s claims of accepting the election results.
He has no idea what he is talking about. Here’s the deal. The fact is, I will accept it, and so will he. you know why Because if the winner is declared after all the ballots are counted, all the votes are counted, that will be the end. That will be the end.”
It was not the end, but no one seems to have taken seriously the possibility of a coup, annulment of election or rebellion. None of this was mentioned in the second and final presidential debate a few weeks later.
Moment 2: Roe v. Wade is almost forgotten
That may be hard to believe, though, almost two years after the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade through Dobbs Conclusion: Abortion has not been mentioned in any of the 2020 presidential debates.
Ro The first debate mentions itself only in a brief exchange, when Biden and Trump argue over Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Biden tried to argue Ro “Also on the ballot…in court, and so that’s at stake now,” but Trump denied this, saying “there’s nothing going on” and “you don’t know his point of view.” Roe v. Wade“
Biden has made a passing reference to “women’s rights” before, but it was in the context of whether Barrett’s appointment would end the Affordable Care Act and its protections for pre-existing conditions and guarantee against insurance plans charging women higher premiums than men.
Barrett supported a conservative majority that was eventually overturned Ro and the constitutional right to abortion.
Moment 3: Trump gets defensive on immigration
Of all the anti-immigrant actions Trump has taken as a candidate and as president, perhaps his zero-tolerance policy that separated immigrant children from their parents at the border has the most staying power in the public memory. It was a tense moment for Democrats in 2018 and helped fuel pro-immigrant sentiment during the Trump years. The aftermath was also a high point in the national consensus on immigration that has since waned.
This contrast, in how the American public views immigration today compared to 2020, is also visible when looking at how the issue was presented during the second presidential debate. It was a moment of vulnerability for Trump, who was asked repeatedly by the moderators, Kristen Welker and Biden, whether he had a plan to restore the missing parents of at least 500 children who were still in government custody. the time
Trump responded with non-denial in blaming the Biden and Obama administrations or about human trafficking and drug cartels.
And Biden took the moment to present a more open and liberal stance on immigration: pledging to send a bill to Congress to provide “a path to citizenship for more than 11 million undocumented people,” pledging to protect Dreamers and DACA recipients, and pledging to protect the rights of asylum seekers.
The whole exchange is the opposite of what will likely be said in the first debate in 2024. After years of increases in border crossings, a spike in asylum requests and shifting public opinion, Trump is now on top and Biden will be on the defensive. His recent moves to limit asylum, coupled with new protections for undocumented spouses of American citizens, reveal this changing reality.
Moment 4: Nobody is worried about inflation
When Trump and Biden first debated, the economic problems facing the country were still dire. The unemployment rate was falling but was still around 7 percent, nearly double what it is today. GDP shrank during the Covid-19 recession, and the fiscal question the country faced was not about passing more economic stimulus or providing relief to families; Whether they were that expensive or should be bigger. Trump was criticized in both debates for not doing more to provide financial relief to businesses and families, schools and first responders, and no one seemed concerned about whether government spending would have unintended consequences.
In other words, “inflation” was not a word on the minds of the public, the candidates, or the moderators in this debate. This time, inflation could make or break Biden’s reelection odds.
Government stimulus isn’t the only (or perhaps primary) cause of the inflation we’re exiting right now. Global inflation has risen due to supply chain disruptions and other economic shocks from the pandemic. But it will be cold relief for Tim Biden if the price hike ruins his bid for a second term.
Moment 5: Everyone is worried about Russia, Ukraine or China, but for the wrong reasons
When it comes to foreign affairs, we live in a very different world than the one discussed in the 2020 debate. Russia was mentioned 29 times in both debates, almost exclusively when it came to whether they were meddling in the 2020 election to help Trump like they did in 2016, or if they were trying to corrupt either candidate.
Ukraine was similarly mentioned when Trump accused Biden and his family of taking bribes or participating in unethical business dealings with Ukrainian businesses. There is no mention of the threat Russia may pose to Ukraine or the international order.
Instead, China was the country on which both debates focused – meaning, the epidemic was still the main story of the era. But neither the candidates nor the moderators consider the larger geopolitical challenges China poses: exerting influence over regional allies, threatening Taiwan, and challenging the United States on trade, industrial production and technology.
It is useful to recognize and embrace uncertainty
Looking back at these moments of the last two Biden-Trump face-offs, there are three lessons to be seen. First, the world has a curious way of being chaotic and uncertain that is difficult – often impossible – to predict. The biggest stories of the day can fade from memory over the years, and we don’t know which ones matter until time has passed.
The second lesson is visionary – about embracing uncertainty with humility. New threats and challenges may emerge within weeks. At this point in 2020, Trump has yet to get Covid. The pandemic will only get worse. All our votes were off, and we didn’t know it. We couldn’t predict how long it would take to count each vote, and we couldn’t imagine that a president would try to stop the transfer of power peacefully, refuse to concede, or attempt a coup.
Third, both of these conclusions offer a lesson in how to look at candidates. Presidents and their administrations deal with many problems that we cannot foresee. They are forced to adapt and deal with crises as they arise, and the issues they discuss in debates are not necessarily the ones they will face in the office.
So as we head into the first debate of 2024, watch carefully. That’s all we know now. But things can always change.
