Israel looks set to de-escalate its war in Gaza – just as another war is winding down.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He hinted in a television interview on Sunday that he wants to move some of the country’s forces to the northern border to fight the Lebanon-based military group Hezbollah. If not for the Gaza war, that conflict would have already captured the world’s attention. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant is also visiting Washington this week to discuss the implications of that increase with US officials.
But as part of the same interview and another on Monday, Netanyahu, in typical fashion, offered conflicting statements about his intentions regarding the future of the Gaza war.
In the first interview on Sunday, Netanyahu appeared to reject a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, a requirement of the proposed deal put forward by President Joe Biden last month that would return the remaining Israeli hostages. But the Israeli leader also said the military would soon end its operations in Gaza.
“The intense phase of the war will end very soon … but that does not mean the war will end,” Netanyahu said. “I’m willing to do a partial deal, which will bring some people back to us. That’s no secret. But we are committed to continue fighting after the ceasefire.”
However, on Monday Netanyahu appeared to back off those comments somewhat.
“While we remain committed to the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal that President Biden welcomed, our position has not changed. The second point, which does not contradict the first, is that we will not end the war until we eliminate Hamas He said this in a speech in Israel’s parliament.
Both positions are impossible to hold, and leave little clarity about where Netanyahu stands.
One thing that has become increasingly clear, however, is that Israel’s war is moving into a new phase, largely dictated by rising tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza soon?
Netanyahu can publicly say he is in favor of a cease-fire agreement. But Mairav Jonzein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group, said any comments by Netanyahu should be taken with a “grain of salt” by the international community, and that his actions could be more instructive in understanding his intentions in Gaza.
“We can see how he approaches the situation, which is that in this war he’s not interested in a strategy that has some kind of end game, that has some kind of exit strategy, that prioritizes hostages,” he said.
Netanyahu’s work so far is consistent with this Three-phase plan For Gaza he and his advisers declared at the outset of the war: first, to wipe out Hamas’s military and governance power in Gaza (a goal that many security experts, including Israel, consider impossible); Second, “Eliminate[ing] Pockets of resistance in Gaza through low-intensity fighting”; and third, “the creation of a new security system” in Gaza that would remove Israel’s “responsibility for daily life” there.
Israel has yet to achieve its first goal. In that sense, Netanyahu may have no intention of signing a cease-fire agreement anytime soon, even if Israel were to scale back its operations in Gaza. Because he relies on a right-wing religious nationalist coalition that wants to continue the war. The coalition is keeping him in power amid widespread calls in Israel Early elections and his resignation after the warAs well as protect him from one Ongoing corruption trial.
But his public statements have occasionally indicated that he is willing to negotiate a permanent ceasefire. It may be an attempt to placate the families of the remaining Israeli hostages and the United States, Israel’s closest ally, on whose military and political support it depends. Hostage families have recently stepped up their pressure on Netanyahu to accept a cease-fire deal that would bring their captured loved ones home. Biden has also thrown his weight behind a ceasefire proposal and would ideally like to see the war end before November’s US election.
Netanyahu is “trying to signal immediately to Biden and the world that he is willing to go to a deal, but still pandering to his base and his own political interests by not agreeing to a deal,” Jonzein said.
All this indicates that a ceasefire may not be imminent. But threats to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon are growing daily to delay the ceasefire.
Territorial war is approaching
For months, Israel has been trading fire with Iran-backed Islamist militant groups and the Lebanese political party Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, which has been designated a terrorist organization by many countries, initially launched the campaign in what it called “solidarity with the victorious Palestinian resistance.” The group said it would not abandon its attacks on Israel’s northern border until a cease-fire is reached in Gaza. But it is Growing impatient Eight months into the Gaza war, with cease-fire talks in which Hamas and Israel do not appear to be reaching an agreement.
So far, as my colleague Joshua Keating points out, the human casualties and displacement in Israel and Lebanon caused by this northern fighting have been significantly less than the horrific toll in the south. But it “could have been — and still is — much worse than that, given the military strength of both sides.”
Netanyahu has not indicated that a ground attack on Lebanon is imminent. But heightened tensions with Hezbollah could be disastrous, as Israel’s previous wars with Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006 indicate. Both conflict Lebanon suffered massive civilian casualties, with more than 1,200 killed.
It would also be a black mark on the United States, which has supported Israel since the start of the war and has played a leading role in ceasefire negotiations aimed at maintaining stability in the Middle East. For the past eight months, US officials have favored national security adviser Jake Sullivan Repeatedly emphasized That one of the main goals of the United States is to “try to prevent the current conflict in Israel and Gaza from becoming a regional conflict.”
“The U.S. should take Israel’s announcements and actions seriously — and take its own steps to prevent Israeli recklessness,” said Thanasis Cambanis, director of the progressive think tank Century International. “The US government is more deeply involved with Israel [alleged] War crimes, and what proved to be a humanitarian disaster and an epic strategic mistake in addition.”
Now, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for the possibility that hostilities on the border could escalate into a full-scale war, engulfing the entire Middle East. Hezbollah was released recently Drone footage An Israeli military base, suggesting there are gaps in the country’s air defenses that the group could exploit. Israel, meanwhile, plans to move troops currently stationed in Gaza to its northern border.
