Encountering a dam Criticism After her 11th-hour turn against congestion pricing in Manhattan, New York Governor Cathy Hochul Hastily planning a press conference Last Friday evening — not a time when politicians tend to spotlight issues they’re happy to talk about. Trying to make his case, he invited Manhattan businessmen to fear that congestion pricing would cripple them by deterring suburban patrons unwilling to pay a $15 weekly toll on vehicles entering Manhattan south of 60th Street.
Small business owners are “scared to death that they’re going to lose customers who might come from places like New Jersey,” he said, citing Comfort Diner, Townhouse Diner and Pershing Square, whose owners were apparently “very happy” with his decision to slam the brakes on congestion pricing. . In response to a question from the press, he added, “I encourage you to go to the next dinner with me … watch people come up and thank me.”
Hochul’s claims draw eye roll One wonders how many people use a car to get to dinner densest, the most transit-rich county in the country — especially Pershing Square, which is across the street from Grand Central Station. Transport outlet Street blog accused the governor of “plutocratic populism” – putting the preferences of the wealthy ahead of the public interest – while a Gothamist Reporter Three of the restaurants he visited spoke with one owner who flatly refused to discuss congestion pricing with him.
In New York City, where The majority of residents do not own a car, it seems odd to claim that a policy that benefits transit users, pedestrians, and bicyclists is bad for attracting customers. Passengers traveling to Manhattan have significantly higher incomes Compared to others who work in the borough, Hochul’s claim that killing congestion pricing will alleviate New York’s livability crisis is dubious.
Even if Hochul is telling the truth about the restaurant’s complaints, they’re still a terrible justification for his flip-flop on congestion pricing. The same goes for Public leaders are elsewhere Those undermine other urban transportation reforms that businessmen often hate, such as replacing on-street parking with dedicated lanes for bikes and buses. When it comes to shoppers’ travel habits, small business owners don’t know what they’re talking about — and not just in New York.
Small business owners overestimate how many customers arrive by car
After studying city after city around the world, researchers found that merchants overestimate the portion of their patrons who arrive by car and undercount those who walk, bike or take transit. These misperceptions lead them to oppose transportation reforms that would limit the presence of cars and make urban neighborhoods cleaner, more pleasant, and less polluted — and possibly increase the cost of their businesses.
Consider a 2021 study in Berlin, where researchers asked 145 shoppers and more than 2,000 shoppers about travel behavior. The share of shoppers who drive was 15 percent lower than shoppers predicted, while the share of transit, walking, and biking was higher (8.1 percent, 6.2 percent, and 3 percent, respectively). Similarly, a 2011 study of Dublin concluded that business owners overestimated the percentage of customers who arrived by car and undercounted those who did not. The same bias was observed Graz, Austria and Bristol, England.
It’s a similar story in North America. In Toronto, a group of small business owners Strong opposition New bike lanes on Bloor Street in 2016, but a Further academic analysis Retail costs and customer counts are available growth After installing bike lanes.
A 2013 study of the Portland, Oregon region concluded that “bicyclists, transit users, and pedestrians spend more on average than drivers, for competitive consumers and all businesses except supermarkets.” That analysis surprised many business owners in the relatively car-centric city, prompting one convenience store chain to install bike racks near its entrance, said Kelly Clifton, a professor of community and regional planning at the University of British Columbia who co-authored the study. .
The findings are remarkably consistent about business owners’ perceptions of the customer journey. I have yet to come across a single study where survey respondents correctly estimated the modal segmentation of their customers or erred in the opposite direction (ie, undercounting those who drive and overestimating non-drivers). Bottom line: Business owners think customers use cars more frequently than they actually do.
It is easy to see how such misconceptions can arise. Shopkeepers and restaurants themselves May drive to work, perhaps because they travel at night when transit is closed or need to carry equipment. Last year, a chamber of commerce in Chicago’s Lakeview and Roscoe Village neighborhoods Survey Local residents and businesses on how they prefer to navigate the community, found that 83 percent of residents prefer to walk or bike, while most business respondents choose to drive. known as a cognitive bias false-positive effect This can lead business owners to mistakenly assume that their customers drive like them.
Merchants can also travel relatively far, which (again, due to the false-consent effect) leads to fewer customers who live close enough to walk, bike, or take the bus. A piece of supporting evidence for this hypothesis: the 2021 Berlin survey found that the average shopkeeper thought that one in eight customers lived within one kilometer of their establishment, but more than half of the surveyed shoppers said they did.
It is also possible that business owners are confused by what they are told about local transport. Think about it: If you’re going to a restaurant and your train is late or you can’t find a nearby bike corral, would you complain to the staff? The thought will probably never cross your mind. But what if you’re in a car and have to circle the block a few times before getting to a parking spot? Now you’re more likely to share your frustration, because there are few more universal American experiences than complaining about parking. If shop owners hear more objections from car owners than from transit riders, cyclists and walkers, they may conclude that most of their customers are driving – and any policy that makes drivers’ burdens worse could spell doom.
Don’t let pro-car bias kill good policy
Whatever its origins, business owners’ car bias presents a major obstacle to urban policy reform. In the District of Columbia, small business owners are among The most vocal critic A 2.7-mile dedicated bike lane planned for Connecticut Avenue, the main thoroughfare in the city’s northwest quadrant, was suddenly approved by Mayor Muriel Bowser. Reverse course in April and declared the bike lane dead. Despite frequent opposition from small business owners, installing bike lanes has had a positive or neutral effect on retail sales. Minneapolis, SeattleAnd the fairies.
Dedicated road lanes for buses are similarly frowned upon by many business owners; They have been opposed San Francisco, MontrealAnd Indianapolis (Whereas the Indianapolis Star observes that the conflict is “business versus neighborhood,” bus lanes enjoy widespread community support).
In New York City, there are many employers, especially large ones Backed congestion pricingAs the policy will provide Funding is desperately needed To modernize the subway system that underpins the city’s economy. The head of the Partnership for New York City, a powerful chamber of commerce, offered strong support for the policy after Hochul’s abrupt change last week. But a vocal group of small business owners warned of crashing sales due to congestion pricing. Speaking to ABC 7 In February, Steven Traub, owner of the Wall Street Grill and a plaintiff in a lawsuit to prevent congestion, said that if the policy were implemented, he would “absolutely [have] To rein in staff because I know sales will drop.”
Regardless of whether Hochul really met a lot of patrons at the Manhattan diner who drove there from New Jersey (which, by the way, Most dinners per capita in the country), it’s certainly admirable that he’s heard from business owners insisting that congestion pricing will crush them. A wise response would be to ask if they’ve done a customer survey to make sure they know how their patrons are coming along. Based on previous research findings, they probably don’t.
Simply accepting business owners’ criticism of congestion pricing at face value is a terrible cause that would improve transit service, improve quality of life, and reduce emissions that harm the planet as well as human health.
Then again, perhaps Hochul is well aware that his argument is bogus. He just couldn’t find a better one.
