A Manhattan jury has just convicted former President Donald Trump on 34 felony counts. The former president still faces other criminal charges in four jurisdictions — Georgia, Florida, New York and the District of Columbia — as he runs for president again.
The cases involving alleged election fraud, mishandling of classified documents, and hush money payments are so extensive that it is difficult for anyone but the most hardened political fanatic to follow them in detail.
But in some cases, for our democracy — and for Trump personally — more than others.
Two lawsuits about Trump’s efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victories (in DC and Georgia) both carry the potential for serious criminal penalties. They also have huge implications for the future of American elections and whether Trump or someone like him will respect the results next time.
Prosecutions of classified documents in Florida are also significant in that they involve sensitive intelligence material. However, prosecutors presented no evidence that this sensitive material was leaked from Trump’s possession. The prosecution is mainly about efforts to deny the government’s demand for the return of its documents.
The New York case reached the fastest verdict but was the least important of the four. Trump was accused of falsifying business records related to hush money payments he made. The key violation here is, essentially, that the Trump Organization incorrectly logged these payments as “legal expenses” — not the world’s highest stock issue.
That’s a lot to keep track of, so in this guide, we’ll go through the charges and the potential sentence for each prosecution in more detail. We have ranked the remaining complaints in order of importance based on the portion and potential impact of each case.
1) Federal 2020 Election Litigation (District of Columbia)
How important is this complaint? Much important. As Vox’s Nicole Naria previously explained, the case will “legally define what a politician can do to reverse defeat.” The outcome of this case could have major implications for the 2024 election and every race after: If Trump isn’t held accountable for the actions he took on Jan. 6 leading up to it, he and others could try to pull similar plans in the future.
Ultimately, this case has a significant impact on the future of US democracy.
Number of Charges: Four felony counts. They are connected:
- Alleged conspiracy to defraud the United States, including conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election
- Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, including conspiracy to prevent certification of 2020 elections
- Obstructing and attempting to obstruct an official proceeding, including blocking the certification of the 2020 election results
- Conspiracy against rights, which includes planning to deprive someone of a constitutional right (in this case, the ability to vote).
Possible jail time per count (these are the maximum sentences that are unlikely to be imposed):
- Conspiracy to defraud the United States: 5 years
- Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding: 20 years
- Disqualification from official activities: 20 years
- Conspiracy against voting rights: 10 years
2) Georgia Election Complaints
How important is this complaint?Much important. Fulton County District Attorney Fannie Willis charged Trump and several of his associates with an elaborate racketeering conspiracy related to efforts to overturn Biden’s victory in the state. Unlike the federal election indictment, where Trump has so far been the only accused, 18 other people were charged with participating in the alleged conspiracy. These include famous names like Rudy Giuliani and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, infamous Trump lawyers like John Eastman and Sidney Powell, and low-level players in Georgia.
Notably, if Trump wins the presidency again in 2024, he cannot defeat the trial, since it is being conducted under state law.
Number of Charges:13 felony counts. They are:
- 1 count of violating the Georgia RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act, which is essentially a catchall charge of a larger conspiracy to overturn the outcome.
- 3 counts of perjury solicitation by a public official, which are about Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of Georgia officials.
- 1 count of Conspiracy to Impersonate a Public Officer
- 2 counts of conspiracy to defraud
- 2 counts of conspiracy to make false statements and write
- 1 count of conspiracy to file false documents
- 1 count of filing false documents
- 2 counts of making false statements and writing
Most of these calculations relate to the Trump campaign’s efforts to assemble a slate of “alternative” electors from Georgia who would intend to vote electorally for Trump rather than the actual winner, Biden.
Possible jail time per count (these are the maximum sentences that are unlikely to be imposed):
- Violation of the Georgia RICO Act: 20 years
- Petition for breach of oath by a public official: 3 years
- Conspiracy to impersonate a public officer: 2.5 years
- Conspiracy to defraud: 7.5 years
- Conspiracy to make false statements and writings: 2.5 years
- Conspiracy to file a false document: 5 years
- Filing false documents: 10 years
- Making false statements and writings: 5 years
3) Federal Document Case (Florida)
How important is this complaint? important The case centers on the president’s ability to jeopardize the nation’s national security by obtaining and misusing classified documents after leaving office. From the U.S. nuclear program to the country’s defense and weapons capabilities, the documents Trump has released outline how the U.S. might respond to a potential attack. Additionally, the lawsuit looked at how Trump thwarted FBI efforts to turn over the documents.
Number of Charges: 40 criminal acts. They are connected:
- 32 counts of willful retention of national defense information, including possession of classified documents related to military activities and nuclear weapons
- 1 count of conspiracy to obstruct justice, including Trump working with an accomplice to withhold classified documents and hide them from a grand jury
- 1 count of withholding a document or record from an official proceeding, including attempting to conceal documents from a grand jury
- 1 count of maliciously concealing a document or record from an official proceeding, which included concealing boxes containing classified documents
- 1 count of concealing a document in a federal investigation, which included covering up Trump’s ongoing possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago
- 1 count of conspiracy to withhold information sought by the government, including concealing classified documents still in Trump’s possession
- 1 count of making false statements, including instructing his attorneys to lie about returning all classified documents in his possession
- 2 counts of altering, destroying or concealing information the government is seeking, including plans to delete security footage
Possible jail time per count (these are the maximum sentences that are unlikely to be imposed):
- Deliberate retention of defense information: 10 years
- Conspiracy to obstruct justice: 20 years
- Withholding documents from an official proceeding: 20 years
- Concealment of documents from an official proceeding: 20 years
- Withholding documents from federal investigators: 20 years
- Concealment plan: 5 years
- Making false statements to the US government: 5 years
- Altering, destroying or concealing what the government is looking for: 20 years
Will Trump go to jail? How long can his sentence be?
Technical “maximum sentence” Trump could face if convicted of all charges unreasonably high — hundreds of years — but in practice, such lofty sentences are almost never given. Still, even though we’re a long way from Trump being behind bars, he’s in danger of getting some serious time.
His eventual sentence, if he is convicted, will depend on a variety of factors in each jurisdiction, none more important than whether the jury convicts him. The strength of each case and the politics of each area may well affect it – given the political polarization, winning a conviction may be easier in New York., Where he was convicted, and in DC, than Florida’s most conservative area where he will be judged. (Remember that it only takes one holdout juror to convict.)
So what will the judge sentence if he is found guilty? Judges have wide discretion to award a sentence they see fit. D.C. Judge Tanya Chutkan will hear a federal case against Trump for trying to steal the 2020 election, and she has been The toughest punisher As for the january 6 rioter, it is suggested that he may lean towards the maximum if given the chance. Meanwhile, Florida Judge Eileen Cannon has the docket case and is a Trump appointee who has already arguably stretched the law to help her; A conviction in his courtroom may be on the light side.
Once he is convicted, will the High Court judges bail him out on appeal? Some of the cases against him use novel legal arguments that have not been tested before. So far, the Florida case appears to be the clearest and best-grounded precedent, while the election cases are more novel (no president has tried to do what Trump has done before) and the New York hush money case has been somewhat legally contentious. If Trump is convicted, he could end up in the Supreme Court.
Finally, any Trump convictions could be overturned if he wins the presidency. If Trump returns to power, he will likely use executive power to end the federal cases against him (DC and Florida) and possibly pardon himself. He hasn’t ended the state case in Georgia, but if he wins the presidency, he could likely suspend the prison term until his term ends. So, again, it’s the voters who ultimately have the power to maximize or minimize Trump’s chances of going to prison.
Update, May 30, 5:45 pm ET: This story was originally published on August 15, 2023 and has been updated multiple times, most recently after Trump was convicted in a hush money case in New York.
