This week’s installment of the long-running “House Republicans can’t govern” saga will soon be forgotten. Elon Musk’s decision blow up A bipartisan deal to fund the government through the sheer power (and latent threat posed by his vast wealth) of Donald Trump posting sudden call For debt ceiling repeal, House Republican Chip Roy to say His peers that they lack “an ounce of self-respect” – all this drama will surely give way to more comedies in the new year.
But this week’s government funding fight revealed something that could have profound implications for the next four years of his administration: Trump’s power over the congressional GOP is quite limited.
This was not seen a few days ago. On Wednesday, Trump joined Elon Musk calling House Republicans would have scrapped a bipartisan spending deal that would have kept the government funded through March, increased disaster relief and funding for pediatric cancer research, among other things. The GOP needs buy-in from the Senate’s Democratic majority to pass any legislation — and failure to pass a spending bill by Saturday would mean a government shutdown — with House Republicans heeding Trump’s calls to scrap a carefully negotiated compromise.
If Trump had little difficulty convincing his fellow party members to block one spending bill, he proved less adept at getting them to support another.
On Thursday, in coordination with Trump, the House GOP unveiled a new funding bill, a miniscule of all Democratic priorities. President elected through social media indicated His party will “vote ‘yes’ on this bill, tonight!” Then, 38 House Republicans voted against the legislation, enough to sink it amid nearly unified Democratic opposition.
House conservatives’ disdain for Trump is partly due to ideological differences. The president-elect’s objections to Wednesday’s bipartisan deal differed from hardliners in his donor Elon Musk or the House GOP. The latter dislikes the spending bill Number of pages and financial costs. Trump, by contrast, has been more preoccupied with the failure of legislation to raise — or eliminate — the debt ceiling.
Which is understandable. There may be loan limits Most absurd All US government agencies. It does not prevent Congress from authorizing additional expenditures of federal revenue. Rather, it authorizes the government to finance spending that Congress has already ordered through debt. The alternative to raising the debt ceiling is for the government to default on its obligations to American citizens, or its creditors, or both. In reality, the credit limit may be breached causing global financial instability, As the world’s most trusted “safe” asset – US Treasury debt – suddenly became a risky investment.
Although refusing to raise the debt limit would be economically disastrous, many lawmakers are eager to do so anyway. After all, raising the limit on how much debt the government can raise — when the federal debt already sits at $36 trillion — might sound bad to voters if presented out of context in a campaign ad. And some conservatives see the threat of subverting the global financial system as a possible way to force through unpopular spending cuts.
So getting Congress to raise the debt ceiling is inevitably a bit of a headache. And Trump doesn’t want high-level formalities to get in his way Plans to cut big taxes That – if history is any guide – will substantially increase the debt and deficit.
Trump therefore urged House Republicans to delay the debt ceiling for at least two years — otherwise, scrap it altogether — so that it wouldn’t interfere with his honeymoon period (ie, Congress would likely need to raise the debt ceiling sometime in the next year, the crisis in 2023). after avoiding). House Speaker Mike Johnson honored the request by adding a two-year debt limit increase to Thursday’s bill.
for Dozens of House conservativesThe idea of voting for a spending bill without any major funding cuts that suspended the debt ceiling was even more daunting than the prospect of Trump denying it.
It’s not surprising that some House Republicans would prize conservative purity over loyalty to Trump. It is a revelation, however, that about 40 of them would harbor such preferences. During the 2024 campaign, Trump demonstrated an extraordinary ability to dictate ideological terms to his party by formally taking the oath of office. A national abortion ban without provoking a continued attack from his right. Coupled with his apparent success in correcting conservative dogma on trade, entitlement spending, and US-Russia policy, Trump’s key role on abortion raises the possibility that the modern right is a religion of personality first and an ideological movement second.
It is now clear that for a significant portion of House Republicans, this is not the case. And it’s going to pose a serious challenge to Trump’s agenda next year.
Republicans will control both chambers of Congress in 2025, but their majority in the House will be razor-thin: They will have a five-vote majority at most by the end of the year, assuming they sweep them all. Upcoming Special Elections In deep-red districts. The party has to reach a consensus to enact legislation without democratic help. Trump’s legislative agenda, an extension and extension of his 2017 tax cuts, may not seem like such a difficult feat: If Republicans agree on anything, it’s that taxes should be lower.
Yet some conservatives express genuine concern about deficits and insist on paying for tax cuts cost. Others come from swing districts and may be nervous about signing off on unpopular cuts to social welfare programs. At least some Republicans are even reluctant All roll back The Inflation Reduction Act’s pro-Clean Energy Tax Credit, which has Republican precincts benefited disproportionately. It will be difficult to please all the constituencies concerned.
In theory, Trump could make this task easier by scaring unscrupulous Republicans with accusations of loyalty and threats of primary challenges. But after Thursday, it seems less certain that the president-elect actually boasts such power over House GOP backbenchers.
It should be recalled that Trump is a 78-year-old lame duck. If you’re a conservative House member with aspirations of running for higher office a decade from now, a reputation for conservative ideological purity may ultimately be more useful than a record of perfect loyalty to an older person with Republican leanings. The moment he loses the presidency, the party is liable to evaporate.
Whatever happens, Trump is poised to exercise a disturbing amount of personal power over the executive branch next year. But he may find that his power to dictate terms to Congress is as frustratingly limited as our government’s authority to issue new debt.
