A Vox reader asks: There’s a perception in the US that Republicans do a better job overseeing the economy, but is that actually true?
Throughout the 2024 election, Polls have shown Voters believe President-elect Donald Trump would be better for the economy than President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris. That feeling often causes many election cycles to repeat Americans keep thinking Republicans are better at handling the economy than Democrats. In 2012, for example, polls showed that voters Faithful Mitt Romney More than economics Barack Obama.
There are many reasons why voters think so. Republicans have a long history of branding themselves as the pro-business party that will cut taxes and eliminate red tape. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to strengthen regulations, and while they may be popular proposals (like, say, raising the minimum wage), voters worry that these policies will hinder business.
But there is a disconnect between how voters feel about Republicans’ handling of the economy and their historical record. Since World War II, There has been a consistent pattern The economy is doing better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans. More jobs were created under Democrats, for example, who saw higher rates of GDP growth. And economic recessions continue to occur under Republicans: Ten of the last 11 recessions Began under Republican administrations.
What do the numbers say?
First things first: the economy expanded more under Democrats than Republicans. Since 1945, Democratic presidents have overseen, on average, 4.1 percent annual GDP growth, while Republican administrations have averaged 2.5 percent GDP growth. According to CFRA researchAn investment research firm.
When it comes to job creation, both Biden and Harris point to Trump’s poor record: In his first term, the U.S. lost more jobs than it gained — Worst work record of any president in modern history. In Trump’s defense, the Covid pandemic, a once-in-a-century phenomenon, caused many jobs to disappear when he left office. But while Trump may point to Covid as a reason for his poor performance, the fact is that Republicans still have a significantly worse job record than Democrats.
Going back to President Harry Truman, Democrats added more than twice as many jobs as Republicans (70.5 million jobs under Democrats compared to 29.1 million under Republicans), According to the Washington Post.
Even the stock market – which, it should be noted, Not always reflected The real health of the economy – there is Performed well Democratic leadership. According to CFRA research, the S&P 500 Saw an average annual gain of 11.2 percent [Since1945underDemocratsand69percentunderRepublicans[1945সালথেকেডেমোক্র্যাটদেরঅধীনেএবংরিপাবলিকানদেরঅধীনে69শতাংশ।
Inflation is a more complicated story: According to the American Economic AssociationFrom 1945 to 2016, inflation rates were on average lower under Democrats than under Republicans. But while it may seem like Democrats have a better record, researchers have found that inflation rises under Democrats and falls under Republicans. More than that, two presidents are now remembered for unusually high inflation: Biden and Jimmy Carter, both Democrats.
Are the numbers just coincidence?
You might think it’s hard to argue with numbers. When you look back over the past 80 years, it’s clear that the economy performed better when Democrats were in the White House. But the reality is that it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why.
“Even those of us who believe that Democrats are overall better at pursuing policy than Republicans, have a hard time explaining the large observed gap in their performance,” By Jeffrey FrankelA professor at the Harvard Kennedy School who served on President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. “Finally, many other powerful and unpredictable factors affect the economy, often dwarfing the impact of any policy the president can control.”
Other experts agree. Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, who examined economic performance under various presidents, Found the cause That the economy has done well under Democratic administrations has less to do with specific monetary or fiscal policies and more to do with factors the president has little control over, including the oil shock, consumer sentiment and the global economic environment.
This does not mean that economic policies are not important. But policies sometimes take years to take effect, and their impact can be felt well beyond just a particular presidency. And when expansions or recessions occur, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went right (or wrong) and when.
But when it comes to numbers, the verdict is clear. And back in 2004, Even Trump agreed: “It seems that the economy does better under Democrats than Republicans,” he said.
