Georgians have been protesting in the streets following the government’s announcement to suspend the process of joining the European Union until at least 2028.
The protests come amid a larger, global power struggle over the country’s place in the world order The protesters – as well as the European Union and the United States – are pushing for a more democratic society aligned with the West. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, meanwhile, is cracking down on liberal democracy while aligning the state more closely with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Over the past year, Georgian Dream has taken several undemocratic steps. This includes crackdowns on LGBTQ people, civil society and press organizations. those laws, Plus a potential taint Parliamentary elections in OctoberProtesters worry that the country is moving further away from European-style liberal democracy and toward dictatorship.
The stakes are high for Georgian democracy; The Georgian Dream seems to have to resort to authoritarian tactics to stay in power, and plans to join the European Union are an important and powerful obstacle. Joining the EU and NATO is also popular among the Georgian population, so huge and controversial protests are currently taking place in the capital Tbilisi and other major cities.
The question now is whether Georgia’s democracy, such as it is, can be rebuilt towards Europe and the West, or will it suffer the same fate as Belarus, the Russia-adjacent Eastern European state ruled by dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
The Georgian Dream’s latest move away from European liberal democracies could be a boon for Russia, Sam Green, director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Vox.
“I think Moscow sees Georgia as a test case that it can maintain regional hegemony after significant degradation,” such as the punitive, nearly three-year invasion of Ukraine, Green said. “They may believe that their ability to maintain Georgia’s loyalty is a harbinger of things to come in Ukraine – although I think they are wrong. Perhaps more true that they see it as a pretty black eye to the EU.”
But while Georgia’s current political crisis is embroiled in a conflict between Russia and the West, the situation is complicated by the country’s internal struggle for democracy.
Fighting for Georgia’s place in the world
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced Thursday that the government has suspended negotiations to join the EU until 2028 and that Georgia will refuse all EU funding until then. Georgia’s constitution requires government officials to work towards EU membershipAnd there are some Kobakhidze resigned in protest at the decision.
But the EU already closed those talks in June, after the government introduced two related laws. the first LGBTQ rights have been severely curtailedIncluding the annulment of same-sex marriage, adoption rights for same-sex couples, and media portrayals of LGBTQ people. The second target is non-governmental organizations and independent media.
Both are similar to Russian laws that have significantly curtailed the right to protest and organize, as well as the free flow of information there.
“In Georgia, the protests are … against a Putinist type of regime that is authoritarian, that is anti-Western, and tries to build support among the people, appeals to conservatism and traditional values, etc.,” said Natalie Sabanadze, senior director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at UK think tank Chatham House. researchers, told Vox. “Fundamentally, it’s anti-Western, anti-liberal, and it’s about one-party rule with fake opposition, and everyone else either leaves the country or stays in jail.”
D The US responded by forcing a break in accession talks. “By suspending Georgia’s EU accession process, the Georgian Dream has rejected the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia more vulnerable to the Kremlin,” the State Department said in a statement. “Georgian people overwhelmingly support integration with Europe.”
The EU’s response has been less firm; While the bloc “regretted” the Georgian government’s decision to halt the negotiation process and cut off EU funding, the statement so far does not outline the consequences of Kobakhidze’s decision, nor does it indicate how the EU and Georgian Dream will navigate the crisis if indeed the door to joining the EU remains. is open This, Sabanadze said, indicates a lack of consensus and a lack of leadership on the part of the EU.
Sabanadze said the lack of transparency and consensus on countering growing liberalism and democratic retreat weakens its standing in the world. “It’s a big blow, in my view, to the EU, as an ideological, transformative force, which until now has been part of its identity,” he said.
It’s not just about Russia versus the West
Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but never fully transitioned into a coherent democratic system. There are elections, and historically there has been room for dissent and freedom of expression, especially against the more authoritarian excesses of government. But the government and its institutions are characterless a Hybrid governance — A government that uses the democratic process to consolidate power for the benefit of a select few.
The decision to move towards the EU and NATO was primarily a pragmatic one, especially with the aim of protecting Georgia’s sovereignty, which has been weakened since Putin’s rise to power; Russia invaded in 2008, Destabilizing the country’s democratic transition.
The country aspires to join the EU Democratic reforms are needed Such as increased judicial independence, as well as combating misinformation and tackling political polarization – neither of which is in one’s interest Increasingly authoritarian governments are trying to maintain power. The Georgian Dream has changed significantly in his 12 years in power, shifting from a progressive one A multi-party coalition of right-wing parties Led by a millionaire who threatened to ban opposition parties. The Georgian Dream became increasingly unpopular as it shifted to the right, consolidated and failed to improve the material conditions of Georgians; Controlling state institutions and polarizing voters through radical disinformation are part of the way to maintain power.
Some, however, see Russia’s increasingly complex interference in Georgia, especially after disputed parliamentary elections in October. External and internal election observers complained of voting irregularities, and protesters and Opposition politicians have called for fresh elections.
But that doesn’t mean Russia is driving Georgians toward authoritarianism, both Green and Sabanadze say: The Georgian Dream is also trying to hold on to power at home.
“I often say that the government is pro-Russian, maybe not necessarily by intention, but definitely by effect,” Sabanadze said. “So the effect is that Russia is strengthening its position in the South Caucasus, Russia has a regime that it is much more comfortable with, that it can do business with. But what inspires the Georgian dream, is not necessarily love or rapprochement with Russia. [with] Russia or rather the love of power and the ability to stay there and the need to take Georgia in a different direction, that’s a more complicated question to be honest.”
