During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump had a guiding tagline for his energy policy: “Drill, baby, drill.”
The statement is symbolic of where Trump is prepared to focus his efforts in a second term: he promised US “Power Supremacy” and everything “New Pipeline” to “New Refinery” which increases fossil fuel production.
The approach marks a stark shift from the Biden administration and the U.S. emphasis on oil and gas production rather than trying to transition to cleaner energy sources. In addition to talking about the need to increase fossil fuels, Trump has rejected subsidies for clean energy investments and “finished[ing]” funds that were allocated for those subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act. His position ignores the role of burning fossil fuels in climate change and could substantially harm US efforts to address the problem.
Several of his nominations indicate this goal. he Elected oil industry executive Chris Wright — a fracking evangelist — to head the Department of Energy. His name is North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum — who Associated Trump with oil executive Donors during the campaign — as Interior Department leadership and “power czars.” He also tapped former Rep. Lee Zeldin — who emphasized its commitment to regulation — as head of its Environmental Protection Agency.
But the administration has many things under its control. While Trump may take significant steps to try to increase fossil fuel production, actual growth in oil and gas extraction will depend heavily on the economics of the private sector and industry.
Still, while Trump faces some constraints, he has significant policy levers he can pull to encourage fossil fuel production. Wright, Bergum and Zeldin have also indicated they are ready to implement the president-elect’s vision, which includes changes to drilling on public lands and faster permitting for oil and gas projects.
“President Trump and his energy team — Mr. Bergum, Mr. Wright, Mr. Zeldin — can go to great lengths to make expanded manufacturing attractive and relatively easy,” Barry Rabe, a professor of environmental policy at the University of Michigan, told Vox.
How Trump Can Increase Fossil Fuel Production
Trump has two main ways he can use to increase fossil fuel production. One, he can open up more public lands and waters to exploration, development and extraction. Two, he can ease the regulatory processes governing the use of fossil fuels.
Trump may offer more oil and gas leases on public lands
As president, Trump will oversee the Department of the Interior, which includes the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, managing both A significant fraction of the country’s government land And water. He will also oversee the Department of Agriculture, which houses the Forest Service, another agency that oversees some public lands.
The Bureau of Land Management and Ocean Energy Management, as well as the Forest Service, are the three main entities that issue oil and gas leases in public spaces. These are the lease Effectively allows fossil fuel companies to lease parcels of public land from the federal government so they can extract resources from these areas. Once land is designated as available for lease, leases are usually auctioned to the highest bidder.
This bureau, and the Forest Service, have major discretion in determining whether and where more leases can be issued. But the president could issue an executive order directing them to prioritize the issue: Trump could call on agencies to make identifying appropriate public lands a top agenda item.
“If you have an administration that says we want to lease anything that can be leased, there’s a lot of discretion to be able to do that,” said Stan Meiberg, executive director of Wake Forest University’s Center for Environment and Sustainability.
Trump’s first term, during which he also took steps to expand the acreage of public land available for oil and gas drilling, is perhaps a sign of things to come. per a study from science, He caused the largest reduction in preserved public lands in history. Acres of Bears Ears National Monument are being restored and allowing the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument For additional oil and gas Explore these places.
Data from the Bureau of Land Management show that there was a total increase Acres were proposed for oil and gas leases during Trump’s first term Compared to President Barack Obama’s second term and Biden’s current term.
While Trump may again expand the number of leases available, it’s important to note that that won’t necessarily translate into more production. The lease is subject to environmental regulations. This means new leases can be challenged in court for potential violations of the National Environmental Policy Act, the Endangered Species Act, or other federal laws.
Another factor can also limit production: corporate interests. Companies may not be interested in these new leases because many parcels may not be home to fossil fuels. And businesses may also lease land but fail to use it.
The White House may ease manufacturing expansion for the private sector
A second avenue Trump could pursue to make fossil fuel production easier and faster for the private sector is to roll back regulations.
Much of this would include undoing policies the Biden administration has put in place — ie Pause on Liquefied Natural Gas Export Permits – and expediting federal approvals for oil- and gas-related projects.
Trump could use executive branch authority to withdraw some proposals. For other rules, the White House may need help from Congress. Using what’s known as the Congressional Review Act, Congress has the power to roll back rules that agencies have recently put in place. In other cases, it may require passing new legislation: EPA is just getting started Imposition of a methane fee On oil and gas companies, and because that fee was included Inflation Reduction ActIt would require an act of Congress to undo it. Under it, these businesses must reduce their methane emissions or face financial penalties.
Repealing policies such as methane fees and natural gas export permit breaks would ease the restrictions oil and gas companies currently face, create more opportunities to export products overseas, and make fossil fuel production less expensive.
Another area where both the administration and Congress have the power to ease regulation is in permitting reforms. Currently, any oil and gas project – such as the construction of a new pipeline – must go through many levels of approval by federal agencies such as the EPA. (Many clean energy infrastructure projects must also go through this process.) For these projects, companies must obtain a large number of permits, which slows the ability to implement these plans.
The Biden administration was able to outpace the pace at which the Trump administration allowed drilling on public lands. Under Trump, federal agencies may try to further streamline such approvals, said Mark Squilles, a professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder Law School and a former Interior Department staffer. “We’re certainly seeing some effort to roll back environmental standards, to make it easier to allow different types of facilities,” Squilles told Vox.
Trump could take executive action to direct agencies to cut unnecessary steps as much as possible and streamline their processes. More sweeping permitting reforms, such as policies that place firm limits on legal challenges and the time required for federal approval of a project, will require congressional support, and have had bipartisan support in the past.
Trump’s promise is to loosen restrictions on oil and gas companies and facilitate new projects. “Cut the red tape” on art.
As for expanding access to public lands, it is unclear whether this policy change will lead to more fossil fuel production as much will depend on how private firms respond.
Trump may ease production a bit, but the fossil fuel market is also a factor
During the Biden administration, the U.S Produces more oil and gas than any other country in the world. Companies’ incentives to increase production will depend on whether they feel it is financially worthwhile for them. As more countries — including the United States — invest in clean energy sources, there is more competition in the market, which may factor into whether businesses see it as a smart move to dial back their fossil fuel output, given the opportunity.
“While we’re seeing a movement toward more solar and wind development, there’s less demand for the oil and gas products we’re making,” Squilles says.
Although the administration insists it is all-in on fossil fuels, it’s unclear whether it can move away from clean energy investments to the extent Trump has urged. Subsidy defunding in the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, would trigger legal challenges without actual repeal by Congress.
Administrations may also take somewhat contradictory positions. While Trump has long ruled out energy sources like offshore wind and subsidies for electric vehicles, his allies include Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who heads an EV company. Kasturi is among the tech leaders who have gained significant influence in the administration and has deep ties to the government, having led SpaceX.
All of this means that, in the end, although Trump will have the ability to try to make good on this campaign promise, it may not work out as he promised.
