Nearly three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration gave Ukraine the green light to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia.
Ukraine’s military gave permission for rapid use: Tuesday, It attacked an arms depot About 70 miles from the border with Ukraine.
The United States and NATO allies have hesitated to provide sophisticated weapons such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) that Ukraine used in that attack, fearing Russian retaliation against NATO sites — or even nuclear escalation.
Raising that specter on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed one A new version of the country’s nuclear doctrineThat would theoretically make it easier for Russia to use nuclear weapons in this conflict. The new doctrine specifically allows for a nuclear strike in response to a strike with conventional weapons — such as the long-range missiles Ukraine is now permitted to use — if those strikes involve “participation in or support of nuclear power;“Presumably referring to the United States and other NATO countries.”
During the war, Russian leaders threatened to use the country’s nuclear weapons in a conflict if they believed they were necessary. This has led Ukraine’s allies to be cautious about the amount of aid they provide and limits what Ukrainian forces can do with those weapons.
Ukraine’s newfound ability to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory — and Putin’s assurances of new nuclear rules — have again raised the question: Could Russia’s war in Ukraine escalate into a nuclear conflict?
Throughout the war, experts downplayed Russia’s appetite for nuclear conflict. But the rapid escalation of the conflict in recent weeks, and particularly Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, may mean that possibility is closer than ever.
How likely is Ukraine’s new missile capability to lead to nuclear growth?
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and other officials made statementsBoth explicit and implicit, that Russia may be pressured to use nuclear weapons. Most experts agree that there are risks Russia’s use of such weapons is lowBut it is not insignificant.
An earlier version of the doctrine was updated by Russia on Tuesday that the country would tap its nuclear arsenal In only four situations: Obtaining credible information on a ballistic missile attack; nuclear or other WMD attacks against Russia or its allies; attacks on Russian nuclear infrastructure; or conventional weapons attacks that threaten the “existence” of the Russian state. Under the new doctrine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hinted at similar attacks in Ukraine on Tuesday Can trigger nuclear reactions.
The change should not be taken as a reaction to the strikes in Ukraine, however, Samuel Charap, distinguished chair for Russia and Eurasia Policy and senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told Vox.
There is a new doctrine Was working for a long time” Charap said. “The timing may be tied to the onslaught of decisions, but the substance has been brewing for some time.”
Putin and other officials appear to have made no major preparations to actually use nuclear weapons. However, as the war continued, the threat posed by Putin and his officials became apparent and indeed involved a demonstration of nuclear capability. As recently as July, Russia and Belarus held joint military exercises which demonstrated Russia’s strategic nuclear capabilities.
Primarily the US and NATO Russia responded to the threat with cautionDenying Ukraine weapons or imposing restrictions on their use. But over the past three years, little has come of Putin’s threats of nuclear war and war with NATO, with Western nations giving Ukraine access to increasingly sophisticated weapons systems.
In addition to the risk of nuclear war, Ukraine’s allies have to balance concerns that they could be drawn into a more direct conflict. Putin has previously warned that Ukraine is not a member of the NATO military alliance Permission to use long-range missiles (as used on Tuesday) would be considered a NATO attack on Russia inside Russia.
US officials are speaking to The Associated Press said they expected a response from Russia, but Russian officials’ warnings were seen as inflammatory rhetoric and would not provoke any change in US action. This suggests that the United States does not believe there is much danger in the near term from Russia using its nuclear capabilities.
Charap said Russia “has never expressly warned at the official level that it would use nuclear weapons in response to X, Y, or Z.” “The only obvious red line they ever drew was long-range use, the US [or] Western weapons have now crossed the line to strike Russia. So I can imagine that people will expect their response, and it won’t just be with words.”
After 1,000 days of fighting, the conflict appears to be approaching a stalemate. There is no clear path to a decisive victory for either side. Each side is deploying new tactics to try to gain an advantage: Ukraine with long-range missiles; with Russia Recruits from North Korea. And now, Russia and the United States appear to be responding to each other’s escalation: Russia has deployed troops to North Korea, the United States has responded by authorizing the use of long-range missiles, and Russia has revealed its new nuclear posture. That kind of behavior is both reckless and dangerous, Charap said.
“You’re in a spiral that’s the definition of a tit-for-tat dynamic, where your actions aren’t driven by your goals, but counteract what the other guy is doing,” Charap said. “It only goes in one direction – continuing eastward. The spiraling dynamic continues until someone gets out of control or someone decides to stop it.”
