as More than 66,000 World leaders, negotiators, delegates and observers met this week in Baku, Azerbaijan COP29 Climate Summit What is shaping up to be Warmest year on recordThey’re facing a one-two-punch of dire news: Greenhouse gas emissions are still climbing, and one of the world’s biggest carbon dioxide polluters — yes, the United States — will likely retreat from the process altogether.
And after Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, the US – the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases – is poised. More fossil fuel extraction, Bring back clean technology incentivesAnd maybe again Withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement.
To meet international climate targets under the Paris Climate Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced rapidly. Yet humanity’s output is on track to hit another record high this year, up 0.8 percent from last year, according to a new report out this week. Global Carbon BudgetA research unit at the University of Exeter, UK. This trajectory means that the goal of limiting global average temperature increases to below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) is almost completely out of reach.
The conference, where countries detail how they will do their part to tackle climate change, has already gotten off to a rocky start, struggling Just to get an agenda. France and Argentina It has also withdrawn its top negotiators.
“We’ve just had the hottest day, the hottest month, the hottest year and the hottest decade in the history books,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the conference. “Climate disasters are piling up – hurting those who have done the least.”
So at a time when more than ever needs to be done to limit global warming, transition to clean energy and adapt to the inevitable changes underway, momentum is slowing.
Still didn’t stop. Although emissions are rising, their rate of growth is slowing, and a decline may be on the horizon. Wind and solar power are still growing and so are electric vehicles Market share gains. Even with declining political will, trends are moving in the right direction for the climate. But progress is fragile and very slow.
What is driving up global emissions right now?
last year, Climate analysisOne think tank, estimates that there is a 70 percent chance that global emissions reductions will begin this year. The new carbon budget results show that the world is more likely to be in the 30 percent scenario. “I think their analysis is generally really solid and sound,” said Neil GrantA researcher in climate analysis. “There is still some possibility that emissions could decrease this year, but it certainly looks very unlikely.”
Digging into the top-line greenhouse gas emissions numbers reveals a complex story behind why emissions are rising.
The big reason is Fossil fuel costs have increased. Oil and gas accounted for the lion’s share of this growth in emissions, with coal accounting for a third. While the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing, their output is equal to or lower than that of some of the largest historical emitters. D EU emissions are falling. US emissions is fixed China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, is on track to increase its output just fine 0.2 percent this yearOne of the smallest increases during the year.
Supporting this trend are many developing countries such as India, currently the world’s third largest emitter India has grown tremendously Installation of renewable energyBut it is still developing energy from all sources, including fossil fuels. India’s fossil fuel emissions are on track to grow by 4.6 percent this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget.
There are a few additional reasons for the increase in emissions this year. El Niño’s lingering effects have helped push global temperatures to record highs. Extreme heat waves in India And China Increased energy demand for cooling, and that means burning more fossil fuels. “We’re starting to see some of those negative feedback loops where the climate crisis itself is impacting the energy system and making it harder to reduce emissions,” Grant said.
Still, there are glimmers of good news. More than 30 countries have already managed to improve their economies by reducing carbon dioxide pollution, a clear sign that coal, oil and natural gas are not the only path to prosperity. These countries have already peaked their emissions and are now coming down, breaking a pattern that has held for nearly two centuries.
“In most countries in the world, even if they haven’t peaked yet, you can see that the trajectory has reached the peak, and in countries where emissions are declining, they’re generally declining faster,” said researcher Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter who led the Global Carbon Budget. Led the report.
What is bending curve? That’s because countries are switching to cleaner energy sources, Friedlingstein said. That means turning away from carbon-sparing coal to natural gas, which emits about half the greenhouse gases per unit of energy, or using energy from the sun and wind, which emits close to none. Electrifying vehicles so that they don’t burn oil is another key factor. Increasing energy efficiency is also negating rising energy demand.
Government policy initially drove these trends, but now the economy is beginning to take the wheel. Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions often save money, and energy sources like wind and solar power are often the cheapest way to put electrons into the power grid.
It is important to note that burning fossil fuels is not the only way humanity is increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Damaged and destroyed landscapes that absorb carbon — forests, mangroves, wetlands, prairies — also cause a net increase in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas. Methane, which is about 30 times more powerful at trapping heat, is also contributing to warming. It can leak from natural gas infrastructure and is a byproduct of agriculture.
Conversely, restoring ecosystems that soak up emissions from the air can keep warming under control. Uncontrolled deforestation is slowing in many parts of the world and beginning to reverse in others. “The long-term trend in forestry is going in the right direction,” Friedlingstein said. “That’s what helps balance the books with fossil fuel emissions.”
Where greenhouse gas emissions go is up to us
Although greenhouse gas emissions are now increasing at a tiny fraction of their pace throughout most of the industrial era, there is currently no sign that they have peaked, nor any guarantee that they will decline.
Friedlingstein said we may be living in an era where emissions plateau, still adding to the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere at the highest levels in history. And a plateau can stretch for a long time. environmental group On the back of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, the horrendous energy demand from data centers will skyrocket again, but much of that demand can still be met with renewable energy or nuclear power, and so far, they haven’t caused a carbon dioxide spike.
On the other hand, countries can take deliberate steps to bend the emission curve downward at a faster rate. Countries need to set themselves ambitious climate goals, invest in cleaner energy options and hold themselves accountable. “In a sense, it’s a simple recipe,” Friedlingstein said.
In practice, this remains a tremendous challenge.
Many countries are dealing with inflation, making it difficult to invest in large projects. Some worry about securing their energy resources amid fears of international conflict, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted natural gas supplies to Europe. Many parts of the world are suffering the worst damage from climate change in those who have contributed the least to the problem and have the fewest resources to adapt.
Clean energy should be increased. So is energy efficiency. about 30 percent of global electricity In 2023 came from fewer emissions sources. “While renewables have grown rapidly, demand has grown faster,” Grant said. “And we know that the top spot will come when renewables grow faster than energy demand grows.” He added that the deployment of clean energy technologies has so far been skewed mainly toward wealthy countries and those facing the greatest growth in energy demand, the greatest increases in air pollution and the worst impacts of climate change.
The United Nations Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimated that By 2035, poor countries will need $1.3 trillion per year To combat global warming. This is once again becoming one of the biggest sticking points at COP29 as negotiators figure out who will pay how much and when.
Although the world is likely to miss its most ambitious climate targets, it remains strong in curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Avoiding every bit of warming — every degree or even fraction of a degree — reduces damage, saves money and saves lives. The open question is how much we will do to change course.
