Over the weekend, a very small fire broke out in a hilly and densely vegetated area of Prospect Park, a green space in Brooklyn. The 2-acre fire drew about 100 firefighters as residents were warned to stay out of the park. Meanwhile, on the New York-New Jersey border, another blaze, the Jennings Creek fire, has burned thousands of acres, sent smoke across much of New York City and killed an 18-year-old New York state forest ranger volunteer. Died while responding to fire.
Is it normal? not right But the Northeast has been under severe drought conditions for several weeks. These fires, and dozens more currently burning in the Northeast and across the Ohio River Valley, as well as scores more in the western United States, are the result of months of unseasonably hot and dry weather across much of the country.
OK, break: what is A drought? Simply put, a drought is a dry period—that is, a long period without any rain or snow—that leads to water shortages. Droughts can (and do) occur around the world; They are not just a feature of a desert or a regional problem. Extreme drought can stress landscapes and water tables, whether a city is built on top of them or not. If the drought persists, people in the area may lose access to water.
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Although the western United States is associated with dryness, it is unusual to see this amount of drought across the Northeast. And current forecasts show conditions continuing for weeks or even months. “Drought is problematic everywhere in the country. It is not just a regional problem,” said Brian FuchsA climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. “No matter where you live, drought can and will affect you.”
Firefighters put out the Prospect Park fire. Rain moved mercifully into New York Sunday night and heavy smoke drifted across the East Coast, obscuring the fact that a cluster of fires was burning in New Jersey.
As the smoke fades, don’t pay attention: Millions of people in the Northeast are under red flag wildfire warnings, which signal conditions where something that can generate sparks could lead to a fire. But we all now live with drought, extreme heat and fire – and are connected to how bad things can get in our relationship with water.
Why is the drought so severe?
For most of the country, October was an extremely hot and dry month. We are currently on pace for 2024 to become the hottest year on record, World Meteorological Organization forecasters have announced. Build with confidence Even more than a month is left.
According to the US Drought MonitorProlonged hot and dry conditions have left every state in the country experiencing drought – an unprecedented statistic.
There is no single driver responsible for the scope of current drought conditions. Even as our global average temperature getting up Thanks to climate change, our short-term weather patterns will change all the time. For example, despite Hurricane Helen bringing piles of moisture to places like North Carolina more than a month ago, even western North Carolina is now unusually dry. How could it be? Because it’s been so hot and dry for a few weeks – enough to erase any so-called traces A thousand year event.
“When I started looking at the data over the last six months, you can see that places like New Jersey, the Ohio River Valley, most of the plains are 12 to 15 inches below normal precipitation for this time of year,” Fuchs said. “New York’s deficit is 10 inches. It is too extreme for this part of the country.”
And then there are these warm temperatures later in the year that exacerbate the worst effects of the ongoing drought. Temperatures usually drop significantly by November. Plants will drop their leaves and go dormant. Some critters hibernate or go into low-power mode. Snow begins to accumulate at higher elevations, banking moisture that will melt — slowly — during warmer periods.
But when it’s 80 degrees in New York in November, trees and plants are still watering. There is an excess of demand on the overall water system, and this taxes water sources – lakes and streams begin to recede and soils retain less moisture. Plants that grew earlier in the year begin to wither — and ignite wildfires.
“It doesn’t take long to transition to a really hot and dry environment and you suddenly have all this extra fuel for wildfires,” Fuchs said. “It’s the perfect mix for fire to bloom.”
Should we expect more wildfires?
Drought is a normal part of our climate, but it is not normal To see so much drought all over the country.
Resources to help you understand how drought will affect where you live
There are two monitors produced by the US Drought Monitor from the Climate Prediction Center that reflect which regions of the US will be most affected by drought and water shortages. These forecasts, which are updated regularly, give a real-time pulse on conditions across the country and are produced through a partnership between the US Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These tools are also helpful in getting a clear picture of how the climate is affecting your local landscape and will alert you if you are experiencing water shortages.
- monthly outlook A great snapshot for the moment. This provides a gradient of drought conditions, shaded by severity, affecting the country. If you live in an area where drought persists, conserve your water and be aware of the risk of severe wildfires.
- Seasonal view Currently shows projections up to January 2025 and will be updated again in mid-November to show expected conditions in late February. This map is helpful in getting a long-range view of the drought and whether it is likely to decrease or become more severe.
This extreme period of dry weather is part of the bigger picture that scientists had hoped for: that our weather would become more extreme and unpredictable, and that we would collectively experience more pronounced swings from incredibly dry periods to incredibly wet periods.
These dry periods, Fuchs says, are associated with warmer temperatures that add to what should be cooler parts of the year and increase demand on our water system.
That demand, however, includes water consumption by you and me and everyone else. Our daily showers, drawing from faucets, running our dishwashers and washing machines, washing our cars, watering our house plants (and more) are done by millions of people living in a watershed, an area that shares a single water source for a given region. .
If there is too much demand on an already stressed landscape, wildfire risk increases as water levels drop in streams and our water table.
To better navigate the conditions we see today and the climate we should expect in the future, we need to understand that no place is immune to drought conditions, Fuchs said. “Even if you think you haven’t been affected by drought in the past, it’s increasingly important for people to know where their water comes from and to conserve it as best as you can,” he said.
“We are actively experiencing the severe effects of climate change,” said Aradhana TripathiA climate scientist from UCLA who assisted the author Latest National Climate Assessment. Climate change is “no longer a theoretical or distant threat, but an abstraction. This is not something that will happen in the future. It’s not just happening in places far away from where we live. All climates are now being affected.”
Yes — even in New York City.
