The relationship between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has always been, to put it mildly, a bit complicated. In 2019, there was “The perfect phone call“where Trump allegedly used US aid to Ukraine to pressure Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden. And More recent awkward meetings During the 2024 presidential campaign in New York where Trump spoke of his good relationship with Vladimir Putin in front of what the Russian leader called tried to kill.
But Trump also expressed some grudging admiration for Zelensky, a fellow TV star-turned-politician who has shown he knows how to close a deal. “I think Zelensky is the greatest salesman in history — every time he comes to the country, he leaves with $60 billion,” Trump said. In a gathering in September Dr.
But with Trump’s return to the White House, Zelensky may now have his toughest “selling” job yet. Zelensky quickly congratulated Trump on his victory and the two held a primary Phone calls last week that were joined — perhaps in a sign of weirder things to come — by Elon Musk, and Ukrainian officials described it as somewhat reassuring. Trump too Talked with Putin Over the weekend, according to the Washington Post, though the Kremlin has since confusingly, Deny it.
The conventional wisdom is that Trump’s election is a major blow to Ukraine, coming at a time when it Already losing territory and troops A slow but steady rate for Russia’s relentless advance and while its civilian population faces the prospect of another brutal winter. Russian attack on the country’s energy grid. Opposition to aid for Ukraine has become a key position of the Republican Party’s MAGA wing, and earlier this year GOP opponents blocked a major aid package for Ukraine for months.
Trump himself Blamed Zelensky to start a war. He also promised Finish the battle within 24 hours Once in the office. It’s not clear how he plans to do that, but Vice President-elect J.D. Vance advised This would involve suspending the current front lines and Ukraine declaring its neutrality and giving up its ambitions to join NATO. (Although Zelensky mostly avoided direct criticism of Trump, he described Vance as “Very radical.”)
The Ukrainian government would see such an “agreement” as a complete capitulation and logically argued that Russia should not be trusted to maintain the ceasefire: Putin could always try to take more territory or even Kiev itself after the break to replenish it. his loss
But while the conventional wisdom may hold true that Trump’s win is a blow to Kiev, Ukrainian leaders are still expressing some cautious optimism that they can work with the new administration. The “greatest salesman in history” pitch, however, needs to change.
Selling Ukraine
One thing you probably don’t hear as much: talk about defending democracy or maintaining the rules-based international order, which both Zelensky and Joe Biden do. frequently used In the last two years since the Russian invasion. Such rhetoric is likely to fall flat with Trump, given his often blatantly transactional approach to foreign policy and general fondness for authoritarian leaders.
Speaking at a press call organized by the think tank German Marshall Fund on Friday, Hannah Hopko, a former Ukrainian parliament member and co-founder of the advocacy group International Center for Ukrainian Victory, clarified the shift. “We understand that with Trump it’s not a matter of philosophy,” he told reporters. “It’s not talking about a rules-based order. It’s about a very pragmatic approach.”
That’s probably why Zelensky Recently emphasized That Ukraine is “rich in natural resources”, including important minerals such as titanium, graphite and lithium, which could be important for the green energy transition. It’s a line echoed by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of Trump’s few close allies who is also a staunch Ukraine supporter.
Noting that Trump has said in the past that Russia should be allowed to keep the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014, Hopko argued, “It’s important to explain to Trump, who likes to win, that Crimea has huge potential. Extraction of natural gas“
This kind of logic has worked on Trump in the past: During his first term, he claimed that he ultimately decided to keep US troops in Syria, despite repeated promises to withdraw them, so that “Keep the oil” in the region.
Ukrainian officials also believe they can present themselves as good for American business. “I’ve heard that the Republicans are standing up for the defense industry. We are bringing value to the defense industry of the United States,” Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshyn told a rally on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington over the summer. Over $68 billion Funds allocated to Ukraine are spent on US companies. Hopko also noted that Ukraine’s advances in drone warfare and autonomous weapons could benefit the US military through technology sharing and battlefield testing.
John Conway, strategy director for Republicans for UkraineAn advocacy group says supporters of Ukraine should emphasize the threat a victorious Russia poses to the United States. “Recently [Putin’s] Secret operatives tried to blow up civilian planes bound for our airport and made bomb threats to disrupt our election,” Conway told Vox via email. “When Putin loses, America wins. Ukraine can beat Putin.
Another reason Trump has stepped up support for Ukraine rather than making a deal is that it’s unclear whether Putin is interested in peace at a time when he probably thinks he is. Has the upper hand in battle. The choice may not be between ongoing war and negotiations but between ongoing war and defeat in Ukraine — something the ever-image-conscious Trump doesn’t want to see in his sights.
David Cramer, a former US assistant secretary of state under George W. Bush, said the prospect of a total defeat in Ukraine as a result of his actions may give Trump pause. “The last thing Trump wants is a chaotic collapse, a la Afghanistan 2.0,” he said. (Although Trump’s first administration negotiated the deal that led to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, he Repeated accusations are made Biden administration for conducting chaotic pullout.)
Will Trump listen?
Ukrainian officials and their Western advocates often point out that for all his kind words for Putin and strained relations with Zelensky, it was Trump who Ukraine agrees to sell Javelin anti-tank missiles — The Obama administration refused to do anything. Javelins will play an important role later Ukraine’s ability to resist an initial Russian attack in 2022. It was in 2016.)
most recently, Trump was convinced The money to give his congressional allies the blessing of approving a Ukraine-aid package earlier this year was structured as loans rather than grants — a sign, perhaps, that appealing to his business instincts could be a winning strategy.
Whether the new Ukraine pitch works may depend on who ends up in Trump’s cabinet. Ukrainians may have hoped for the return of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has Visited Ukraine and advocated providing it with more advanced weapon systems. Trump, however, already did Cancel a role For Pompeo in the new administration, and Primary index Republican hawks may not have a home in the new administration.
Former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, who unlike his two predecessors in the first Trump administration, did not denounce Trump afterward, is expected to return to a senior role this time. O’Brien Argument in an article on foreign affairs Trump’s strategy earlier this year would be to “continue to provide lethal aid to Ukraine, funded by European countries, keep the door open to diplomacy with Russia — and balance Moscow with some unpredictability.” O’Brien also advocated increasing NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe closer to Russia’s borders — a move guaranteed to raise Putin’s ire.
It’s not at all clear that Trump shares the views imputed to him by O’Brien, but it’s a sign that the new administration’s foreign policy team may have broader views than many think.
It’s not going to be easy for Ukraine
The reality is that a reckoning of US support for Ukraine could well happen even if Vice President Kamala Harris had won the presidency, if only because of growing opposition in Congress, as well as Russia’s undeniable battlefield advances, with Moscow willing to sacrifice tens of thousands. Thousands of soldiers on the battlefield. It’s not just MAGA figures who are pushing for compromise with Russia — Some members of the Washington Foreign Policy Institute Growing is as good.
It’s also worth noting that while Biden has been a staunch advocate for Ukraine, officials in Kiev Often expressed frustration Along with his administration’s delay in delivering new weapons systems and capabilities, they were motivated by what they saw as an irrational fear of escalating war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
“Every time we ask for something, we get it months or a year later when it won’t make as much of a difference as before,” MP Oleksandra Ustinova told Vox in June.
Some advocates even hope that Trump might take the gloves off, green-lighting tactics like long-range strikes on Russian territory with American weapons, which the Biden team has been reluctant to endorse. On the other hand, Trump, like Biden, has warned of “the specter ofWorld War III“A September Op-EdThe president-elect’s son, Donald Trump Jr., and his new ally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., favored negotiations with Russia to avoid nuclear war. These growth fears are unlikely to disappear.
Ultimately, Ukrainians will hope for the best and try to work with Trump’s team because there is no other option. Trump’s relationship with Putin and past statements about war don’t give much cause for optimism, but ironically, the thing Ukrainians are counting on now is his unpredictability.
